The so-called natural rubber futures are trading contracts with natural rubber as the subject matter.

Usually, the natural rubber we refer to refers to the natural latex collected from Brazilian rubber trees, which is made into elastic solids through curing, drying and other processing procedures. Natural rubber is a kind of natural polymer compound with polyisoprene as the main component, and its molecular formula is (C5 natural rubber H8) N. Its rubber hydrocarbon (polyisoprene) content is above 90%, and it also contains a small amount of protein, fatty acid, sugar and ash.

Natural rubber has a series of physical and chemical characteristics, especially its excellent resilience, insulation, water repellency and plasticity. After proper treatment, it also has valuable properties such as oil resistance, acid resistance, alkali resistance, heat resistance, cold resistance, pressure resistance and wear resistance, so it is widely used. For example, rain boots, warm water bags and elastic bands used in daily life; Surgical gloves, blood vessels and contraceptives used in the medical and health industry; All kinds of tires for transportation; Industrial conveyor belts, conveyor belts and acid alkali resistant gloves; Irrigation and drainage hoses and ammonia bags for agriculture; Sounding balloons for meteorological measurement; Sealed shockproof equipment for scientific experiments; Aircraft, tanks, cannons and gas masks for national defense; Even high-tech products such as rockets, artificial earth satellites and spaceships are inseparable from natural rubber. There are more than 70,000 kinds of natural rubber products in the world. Natural rubber, together with steel, petroleum and coal, is called the four major industrial raw materials, which is an important strategic material related to the national economy and people's livelihood. (How to open an account for natural rubber futures? What are the trading rules? )

Two, natural rubber futures exchange and trading code

Natural rubber futures exchange: Shanghai Futures Exchange, trading code: RU

Three, natural rubber futures standard contract

4. What are the influencing factors of natural rubber futures price?

1. International supply and demand of natural rubber

Supply and demand are the most fundamental factors affecting the price of natural rubber. The main producers of natural rubber in the world are Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Viet Nam and China. Due to the large amount of rubber used in China and India, Vietnamese output cannot be compared with the above three. Therefore, the main exporters of natural rubber are Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. In 2002, the three countries established the Natural Rubber Regional Sales Alliance (ITRCo) and formed the Natural Rubber Alliance (IRCo) in parallel to stabilize rubber prices. 20 1 1 In March, the earthquake in Japan caused a sharp drop in rubber prices, and the international rubber union represented by Thailand declared that the domestic price should not be lower than 120 baht/kg. The countries and regions with the largest consumption of natural rubber in the world are China, India, the United States, Western Europe and Japan. Among them, China's own natural rubber production can only meet about one-fifth of its own consumption due to the rapid growth of consumption in the past two years, and the rest needs to be imported. India's self-sufficiency rate of natural rubber reaches 90%, while the United States, Western Europe and Japan rely entirely on imports. Obviously, the relationship between supply and demand of natural rubber among the above three major natural rubber exporting countries and several major importing countries and regions plays the most basic and key role in the price of natural rubber. In addition, while paying attention to the production situation of major natural rubber producing countries in the world, we should also pay attention to the development trend of natural rubber planting and production in Vietnam, India and Sri Lanka. Especially in Vietnam, the government announced to expand the planting area of natural rubber and adopted measures such as encouraging exports to increase the sales of natural rubber. In recent years, the planting area has increased significantly, and it is expected that the global share will increase in the future. Because it takes more than 5 years for rubber trees to produce rubber, attention should be paid to the delay period from expanding planting area to actual output during analysis. The largest consumption of natural rubber is the automobile industry (accounting for about 65% of the total consumption of natural rubber). Therefore, the development of automobile industry and related tire industry will affect the price of natural rubber. Inventory is also one of the important factors affecting the price of natural rubber.

2. Domestic natural rubber supply and demand and tariff policy

Natural rubber in China has been in short supply. Therefore, before the import of natural rubber is completely liberalized, the domestic supply of natural rubber still has a certain impact on the price of natural rubber in China.

However, after China's entry into WTO, how the government fulfills its WTO commitments and adjusts its import and export policies has become an important factor affecting the import of natural rubber in China and even the fluctuation of natural rubber prices. China implements the management of "two certificates" for the import of natural rubber. The specific contents are as follows: Imported natural rubber includes processing part (zero tariff, 1999 10 10/0) and double-limit part (current limit and use limit, 1 998). The processing part and the double-limit part are called tax reduction and exemption parts. The customs keeps track of the natural rubber imported in these two ways, and monitors its flow direction and use. Only the general trade part can enter the circulation market and participate in delivery in the futures market.

According to the duty of tariff concession promised by China after its accession to the World Trade Organization and the "20 1 1 annual tariff implementation plan" issued by the State Council Customs Tariff Commission, China will continue to impose selective taxation on natural rubber in 20 1 1 year.

3. International and domestic economic environment

As an important industrial raw material, the price fluctuation of natural rubber is closely related to the international and domestic economic environment. When the economic environment is improving and the market demand is sufficient, the market demand of natural rubber will increase, thus pushing its price up; On the contrary, when the economic environment deteriorates, the market is pessimistic and the demand is insufficient, the market demand for natural rubber will decrease, leading to its decline. The global economic crisis in 2008 led to a sharp drop in rubber prices, which is obvious proof. Therefore, the international and domestic economic environment will affect the long-term trend of natural rubber prices.

4. Development of major rubber industries

The largest consumption of natural rubber is the automobile industry (accounting for about 65% of the total consumption of natural rubber), and the development of the automobile industry has promoted the progress of tire manufacturing. Therefore, the development of automobile industry and related tire industry will affect the price of natural rubber. Especially the automobile industry, its development is directly related to the output of tires, thus affecting the global demand and price of natural rubber. After the automobile industry in Europe, America, Japan and other countries has entered a stable development, the demand for natural rubber is relatively stable. Comparatively speaking, China's automobile industry has just started, and there is a lot of room for future development. Therefore, the domestic natural rubber price will be affected by the development of automobile industry and tire industry.

5. Production and application of synthetic rubber

With the continuous progress of technology, the selection of raw materials for rubber products has also changed, and many products have replaced natural rubber with synthetic rubber. With the continuous development of synthetic rubber industry, its price is more and more competitive. When the supply of natural rubber is tight or the price rises, many manufacturers will choose to use synthetic rubber, and their complementarity will become stronger and stronger.

At the same time, because synthetic rubber belongs to petrochemical products, its price is naturally affected by its upstream product-oil. In fact, oil prices have been fluctuating, so the fluctuation of oil prices will also affect the price of natural rubber by affecting the price of synthetic rubber.

6. Natural factors

The growth of natural rubber trees needs certain geographical and climatic conditions. Rubber trees that are generally suitable for tapping are 5-7 years old. Therefore, the number of natural rubber trees that can be used for rubber tapping cannot be changed in a short time. The main factors affecting the output of natural rubber are: 1 and seasonal factors. Entering the cutting season, rubber prices fell; Entering the tapping season, the price of rubber rises. 2. Climate factors. Typhoon or tropical storm, continuous rainy days, drought and frost will reduce the output of natural rubber and increase the price of rubber. 3. Pests and diseases. Such as powdery mildew, red root disease and anthracnose. , will affect the growth of natural rubber trees, and even lead to death, which has a great impact on the output and price of natural rubber.

7. Factors of exchange rate fluctuation

In recent years, due to the global economic turmoil and frequent exchange rate changes, the price of natural rubber, especially the import and export business, has had a certain impact. Therefore, when paying attention to the natural rubber market in the international market, we must pay attention to the exchange rate changes of various countries, especially the exchange rate changes of the three major rubber producing countries and the Japanese yen against the US dollar. According to some data, through correlation analysis, there is a certain correlation between the exchange rate of Japanese yen against the US dollar and the price of TOCOM natural rubber. Therefore, the change of the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar will have a corresponding impact on the cost of imported natural rubber, thus causing changes in domestic rubber prices.

8. Political factors

Political factors include not only the policy influence of governments on the import and export of natural rubber, but also international emergencies and major events that have occurred and will occur, such as catastrophic events and possible war factors. Political factors often lead to violent fluctuations in the price of natural rubber in a short period of time when relevant news comes out, and affect its long-term price trend.

9, the impact of international market transactions

Natural rubber futures have become a mature variety in the international futures market, and also occupy a certain market share in the futures exchanges of Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, the trading prices of the main places for natural rubber futures trading, such as TOCOM and OME in Japan, SHFE in China, SICOM in Singapore, KLCE in Malaysia and AFET in Thailand, also have different degrees of influence on each other.

For domestic natural rubber futures investors, when participating in SHFE natural rubber futures trading, they should not only pay attention to the trading situation of major foreign natural rubber futures markets, but also pay attention to the quotations of domestic spot markets such as Hainan, Yunnan and Qingdao.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) Related analysis and comment on natural rubber futures.

1. Shanghai has become a global natural rubber futures trading center.

Shanghai Futures Exchange has replaced Tokyo as the busiest natural rubber futures trading market in the world and will eventually become the benchmark of the global rubber market.

Natural rubber futures was one of the most active trading varieties in Shanghai Futures Exchange last year, with a total turnover of 52.09 million lots, three times that of the previous year. Last year, Shanghai Futures Exchange won the crown of natural rubber turnover, reaching 557,268.98 billion yuan, accounting for 26.53% of the country's total annual turnover.

B. Value-added tax on natural rubber futures trading

In natural rubber futures trading, due to physical delivery, it also brings the problem of issuing VAT invoices. Because the value-added tax is managed and collected by the national tax authorities, the responsibilities of the exchange and members and how to operate it have become something that everyone must understand. The standard delivery varieties of natural rubber in our hospital are imported natural rubber and domestic natural rubber, and there are also different calculation methods in the operation of collecting VAT. Customs levies 17% value-added tax on imported natural rubber, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stipulates that 17% tax rate is still applicable to imported natural rubber and 13% tax rate is still applicable to domestic natural rubber for special VAT invoices issued by members or customers at physical delivery. An analysis is made on the VAT collection of imported natural rubber after the physical delivery of natural rubber by an importer in Shanghai Futures Exchange as follows:

1, natural rubber imported by importers: 1), 17% value-added tax levied by customs; 2) The customs issues 17% VAT invoice to the importer; 3) This tax amount is-the importer's input tax amount.

2. The importer sells the imported natural rubber on the futures exchange, and the delivery: 1). The quotation of futures exchange includes tax (including VAT); 2) The importer, as the seller, issues a 17% VAT invoice to the members of the futures exchange; 3) The total price and tax on the VAT invoice = the settlement price on the last trading day of the futures contract × the delivery amount (the amount after deducting the premium, if any); Unit price on VAT invoice = total price and tax/1. 17/ sold quantity; VAT invoice amount = VAT invoice unit price × sold quantity; VAT invoice tax amount = total price tax ×17%/1.17; Total price tax = VAT invoice amount+VAT invoice tax amount; 4) This tax amount is-the importer's output tax amount.

3. The importer shall pay VAT to the tax authorities with the above two VAT invoices; Taxable amount = output tax-input tax 1), output tax > input tax Importers need to pay taxes to the tax authorities; 2), output tax = input tax, importers do not need to pay taxes to the tax authorities; 3) Output tax