In 20 14 years, the added value of the financial industry increased by 10.2%, which was 2. 1 percentage point higher than that of the tertiary industry. The proportion of financial industry in the added value of tertiary industry reached 15.3%, and the proportion of added value of financial industry in GDP jumped from 5.9% in the previous year to 7.4%, breaking through the pattern of hovering around 5% since the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.
The national online retail sales accounted for 10.6% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 2.7 percentage points. The rapid growth of new finance generated by Internet and mobile payment shows that the new format of e-commerce has played a positive role in promoting circulation, expanding consumption and benefiting people's livelihood.
New industries and new formats have more and more traction on economic growth. For example, Guangdong, the leading manufacturing industry, is now transforming into a strong tertiary industry province.
Two, the loan balance growth rate is the accounting value of the added value of the financial industry at the beginning of the year or the same period last year. ...
Compared with the same period last year.
Third, how to use the knowledge of western economics principles to analyze the current macroeconomic situation in China?
Entering 2 1 century, the economic cycle of China. Especially since 2008, the central government has taken preventing economic growth from changing from structural price increase to obvious inflation as the primary task of macro-control, emphasizing the need to continue to strengthen and improve macro-control, which highlights the advantages of China at present and will realize a "soft landing" from sustained high-speed growth to steady decline in the face of multiple pressures at home and abroad.
First, China's economy is still running at a high level.
In 2007, China's economy continued to grow at a high speed. The annual GDP was 24661.90 billion yuan, an increase of 1 1.4.53 trillion US dollars over the previous year, and the balance of deposits was as high as 1.72534 billion yuan. In 2008, the economic situation and investment remained high. The investment in fixed assets of the whole society was 6,840.2 billion yuan, 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Among them, the investment in urban fixed assets increased by 26.8% in five years (29.5% in June), accelerating by 0. 1 percentage point; Investment in rural fixed assets was 996.6 billion yuan, up by 23.2%, accelerating by 1.7 percentage points.
During this period, the two major price indexes of consumer price (CPI) remained high and continued to rise. In 2007, the CPI in China increased by 4.8%, and in the first half of 2008, it increased by 7.9%. In 2007, China's PPI rose by 3. 1%. In 2008, the growth rate quickly exceeded 6. 1%, and then exceeded 8% for four consecutive months. In the first half of the year, the ex-factory price of industrial products in China increased by 7.6% year-on-year, 4.8 percentage points faster than the same period last year. PPI shows that the cost pressure of enterprises is too heavy, the profit space is compressed, and the future will be deeper and stronger; On the other hand, the upward pressure of CPI will gradually emerge in the future.
At the same time, the trend of gradual decline in economic growth rate is becoming more and more obvious. From the beginning of 2008, according to the national economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in the first half of 2008, China's GDP in the first half of this year was13061900 million yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year, and down 1.8 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry1180 billion yuan, up by 3.5%, down by 70 million yuan, up by 1 1.3%, down by 2.4 percentage points; The added value of tertiary industry was 5140 billion yuan, up 10.5% and down10.6. Under the influence of multiple factors, China's economy is in the process of adjustment.
Second, the international economy is not
The economic impact caused by American subprime mortgage has gone far beyond the domestic scope of the United States and began to spread to the world economic development. It is defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP growth as recession, and the overall economy of the United States is heading for recession. The American economy is the locomotive of the world economy, and the American economy will be greatly affected first. In fact, many European countries, such as Ireland and Britain, are also in the process of bursting the real estate bubble, so problems will follow. Now, the Japanese economy in Asia has also begun to slow down. The world turmoil has extended its influence from real estate to almost all fields such as finance and manufacturing, leading to the continuous decline and sharp oscillation of major global stock markets. This has also caused the biggest uncertainty of the international economy, that is, will there be a recession in the US economy? If there is a recession, it is a temperature recession. When will it bottom out? Is it a long valley bottom or a short valley bottom? Although it is impossible for China to get rid of the influence of subprime mortgage, China must formulate corresponding countermeasures for the uncertainty of the influence of subprime mortgage. If handled properly, the adverse effects can be eliminated to the maximum extent. However, if it is not well controlled, it may move from a temporary economic downturn to a long-term economic downturn, or even fall into a world-wide long-term economic recession in the worst case.
The international energy price represented by oil constitutes the second factor of international economic uncertainty. International crude oil futures prices have been rising continuously, hitting record highs since breaking through 100 in early 2008. As an oil importing country with 50% dependence on foreign oil, high oil prices will have a great impact on China's economic operation, and the most direct impact is the increase of import payment. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in the first quarter of 2008, China imported 44.95 million tons of crude oil, up 65.438+04.9% year-on-year. The net import of refined oil was 5.47 million tons, up 3 1.8% year-on-year. The trade deficit caused by imported crude oil and refined oil totaled nearly 3.3/kloc-0.0/billion dollars. As oil is a basic energy product, the continuous rise of international oil price will push up the ex-factory price index of industrial products in China and increase inflationary pressure. At present, the international oil price has nearly doubled compared with the same period of last year. It is difficult to clearly predict whether high oil prices will continue. However, it is an indisputable fact that China's oil consumption is on the rise. High international oil prices will put China under greater pressure, and the uncertainty of energy prices will become an important basis and factor for formulating macroeconomic policies.
Third, the domestic macro-policy environment
China's economic structural contradictions and institutional ills still exist, with the increase of excess liquidity, the inflation of asset price bubbles, the massive involvement of international capital, and the increased risk of economic operation. The common way to solve economic problems in China is macro-control, which has really played a role in restraining the excessive economic growth. However, in the face of possible local or global economic recession, there is still a lack of experience in effectively stimulating economic growth during the economic recession.
Faced with the uncertainty of the international economy, the China government has stressed the need to continue to strengthen and improve macro-control. In view of the current economic development situation, China government's macroeconomic policy in the next stage will focus on six aspects: maintaining sustained, steady and rapid economic growth, actively expanding domestic demand, optimizing economic structure, strengthening energy and resource conservation and ecological environment protection, deepening reform and opening up, and attaching great importance to improving people's livelihood. If the period of high oil price comes, we should establish a price and financial mechanism conducive to the adjustment of industrial institutions, so that the signal of high oil price can be transmitted to the market as soon as possible, and promote the transformation of domestic energy consumption structure and the optimization of industrial structure. Considering the increasing inflationary pressure in China, the introduction of macro-control measures must obey the overall situation of macro-economic development, take into account the affordability of all levels of society, choose the opportunity, grasp the rhythm, advance steadily, and better play the role of macro-policies in regulating economic development.
Fourth, the survival pressure of China enterprises.
Enterprise is the basic strength and core element of national economic development. Faced with the double pressure of international and domestic, China enterprises are also directly under greater and more deadly pressure to survive, which is also a true reflection of China's economic reality.
The turmoil in the national market has led to the continuous rise of domestic raw materials and energy prices, which has caused the production costs of enterprises to rise continuously, the profit space to be greatly reduced, the economic benefits to turn from good to bad, the market has started a new round of survival of the fittest, and the production pressure faced by enterprises has been continuously amplified; While continuing to implement a prudent fiscal policy, the country has implemented a tight monetary policy, which has led to an increase in loan interest rates, a tight credit scale, and tight liquidity, which has begun to make more and more enterprises have financial difficulties, which in turn has led to difficulties in updating equipment, an increase in personnel turnover, and a reduction in production scale, forcing enterprises to cut fuel, even on the verge of bankruptcy. The sustained and rapid appreciation of the renminbi has had a great impact on export-oriented enterprises such as Guangdong and Zhejiang. About one third of China's exports go to the United States, which means that China's economy is highly dependent on the consumption power of the United States. The depreciation of the US dollar makes China's export enterprises lose a lot of profits, and the competitiveness of enterprises declines, which leads to the survival difficulties of export enterprises, and even loses their basic survival and development ability and goes bankrupt.
Unless the cycle of the world economy from rapid development to recession or even potential economic crisis ends as soon as possible and the process of the overall improvement of the international economic situation comes earlier, the cumulative impact of the above factors will not be easily eliminated by China enterprises in the short term, and the difficulties faced by China enterprises are still difficult to break through, so it will certainly have a far-reaching impact on China's economic development.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) China's economic downturn and "soft landing"
Under the influence of multiple factors at home and abroad, China's macro-economy will gradually decline on the basis of high operation, and the overall economy will enter the downward channel. However, under the macro-control of China government and relying on China's huge domestic market demand and digestion capacity, it is predicted that China will achieve a "soft landing" in 2008, 2009 and 20 10, with a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 0.5%, which can effectively avoid the risk of overheating on the one hand. It should be pointed out that although China's macro-economy is in the process of adjustment, it has gradually declined recently, and its growth rate has slowed down, but it does not mean that China's economy has turned an inflection point and has been declining ever since. The overall upward trend of China's economy has not changed. As long as the international economy tends to improve and the adverse factors such as subprime mortgage and high oil prices are well overcome, China's economy will step out of this slow downward economic development cycle and is expected to continue to develop steadily and rapidly in five years.
Four. Average growth rate of various loans compared with the beginning of the year
Wen Ying (a macro researcher of a financial institution) once again emphasized "taking economic construction as the center" at the Central Economic Work Conference held in February 2002165438, which made the market have high expectations for steady growth. In this year's government work report, the annual GDP growth target for 2023 is set at around 5.5%, which is at the upper limit of the 5.0%-5.5% growth rate expected by the mainstream view, reflecting the government's determination and confidence in stabilizing the economy. At the same time, however, the triple pressures of "demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening" faced by China's economy are still severe. 1- The main economic data have not been released in February this year, but some leading indicators and high-frequency data show that China's economy is still in the downward stage. High-frequency production indexes such as blast furnace operating rate of steel mills, operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants and operating rate of cement plants are basically lower than the same period of 202 1 lunar calendar, indicating that some people have high hopes for fixed assets investment, especially infrastructure investment, and there is no obvious sign of exerting strength. High-frequency data shows that China's economy is likely to continue to bottom out in1-February, while the social financing data in February is obviously less than expected, indicating that the short-term upward momentum of the economy is insufficient. In this context, how can GDP achieve a higher growth target of around 5.5% in 2023? The author believes that since 2000, except for the real GDP growth target of 7.4% in 20 14, which is slightly lower than 7.5%, the growth targets have been achieved in other years. In addition, in 2023,160,000 urban laborers will be employed, and the economy urgently needs to maintain a certain growth rate. After the closing of the two sessions, all kinds of steady growth policies will be accelerated to form a joint force and strive for early results. First of all, fiscal policy, as the protagonist of countercyclical adjustment this year, will exert its strength on both the expenditure side and the income side. In terms of expenditure, although the new deficit in deficit ratio has decreased from 3.2% to 2.8% and from 3.57 trillion to 3.37 trillion compared with 202 1, the intensity of fiscal expenditure this year will be significantly higher than 202 1. The main reason is that the actual fiscal deficit ratio in each year is different from the budget arrangement, which can be balanced by adjusting funds and carrying forward surplus funds. Considering this factor, the general public budget expenditure this year is 26.7 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.08 trillion yuan over last year and an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. In contrast, in 20021year, the general public finance expenditure was 24.63 trillion yuan, only 73.4 billion more than that in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. It can be seen that fiscal expenditure will accelerate significantly in 2023. In terms of income, it is estimated that the scale of tax reduction and tax rebate will reach 2.5 trillion in 2023. A proactive fiscal policy, in addition to all kinds of familiar expenditure expansion, also includes tax reduction and fee reduction at the income end. After 20021Central Economic Work Conference, combined and large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction have been mentioned many times, and this year's government work report has made more detailed arrangements. First, the new tax reduction 1 trillion, mainly benefiting from manufacturing, small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. Second, the tax rebate10.5 trillion, which was not expected by the market before. The main refund is the value-added tax retention. Simply put, when an enterprise pays VAT, it may deduct more tax than it needs to pay. The extra part can be kept for the next deduction, so it is called retention. On April 20 19, the tax refund for retention began to be tried out, that is, the excess part will not be retained for the next deduction, but will be directly returned to the enterprise, but the scale will be relatively small 20 19-202 1 In 2023, the scale rose to10.5 trillion. Although these tax rebates are not direct tax cuts for enterprises, they can improve the cash flow of enterprises, promote consumer investment, and enable enterprises to maintain their operations while expanding total demand. The research shows that the current fiscal expenditure multiplier (how much GDP per unit of fiscal expenditure will eventually increase, and the tax multiplier will also increase) is about 0.63. Secondly, although major overseas central banks have entered a tightening cycle, domestic structural inflationary pressures cannot be ignored, and all-round easing policies such as RRR interest rate cuts are facing constraints. It is expected that efforts will be made to expand the scale of credit and reduce the financing cost of entity enterprises. Wide credit probability will be the main tone this year. Money and credit are closely related and are often discussed together. But in fact, there is a big difference between the two. Money is mainly used to measure the liquidity of the financial system (reflecting the amount of excess deposit reserve and the price of money market interest rate), while credit is mainly used to measure the liquidity of the real economy (reflecting the amount of social integration and credit, reflecting the price of loan interest rate, etc.). ).). The period of wide credit mostly corresponds to wide currency, but there are many ways to promote wide credit without further loosening monetary policy. The Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in March, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified the global inflationary pressure. The author thinks that China's monetary policy will be restricted by RRR's interest rate cut in the short term, but it is expected to promote the recovery of entity financing demand through policy combination boxing. After all, the social financing data in February is far from the expected scale. The purpose is to realize the requirement of "making the majority of market participants feel the improvement of financing convenience and the actual decline of comprehensive financing cost" in the government work report. First, guide banks to increase credit supply. This year's government work report clearly puts forward "expanding the scale of new loans". Compared with previous statements, this year's proposal is very positive. The author believes that the focus of credit supply includes manufacturing, small and micro enterprises, green financing, major projects, real estate mergers and acquisitions, housing loans and so on. And the examination and issuance of MPA, the first loan account, etc. Second, reduce the financing cost of entity enterprises. In the fourth quarter of 2002/kloc-0, the weighted average interest rate of RMB general loans of financial institutions was 5. 19%, and there was room for further decline. It is expected that through refinancing (the central bank will provide low-cost funds to banks after lending), the spread between the loan interest rate and LPR will be reduced (LPR is the basis of loan pricing, and the loan interest rate will be raised on the basis of LPR according to the customer type and loan term, and the extra part is the spread, which is also the focus of cost reduction in recent years), so as to combat high interest rates and reduce the bank deposit interest rate, thus laying the foundation for reducing the loan interest rate. Finally, banks and other financial institutions reduce fees when financing entities, and the government work report explicitly mentions "fee reduction". Third, the adjustment of industrial policies will reduce the supply-side constraints on economic growth, and real estate regulation will continue to relax. Total demand. On the one hand, the carbon double target has little restriction on economic growth in 2023. In the third quarter of 200212002, the impact of power cuts on GDP was about 0.6 percentage points, and the direct reason for power cuts was that the phased assessment of dual control of energy consumption was not completed in the first half of that year. The top-level design document of CO2 emission peak was released in June, 20021,and the relevant contents in this year's government work report basically continued its thinking. There is no specific provision for the decrease of energy consumption per unit GDP in 202/kloc-0, but the overall assessment during the tenth five-year plan period (the implied requirement is an average annual decrease of 2.9% from 2022 to 2025), and appropriate flexibility is maintained. In 20021year, new renewable energy accounted for 2.9% of the total energy consumption. If calculated according to this ratio, only new renewable energy is not included in the total energy consumption, and the assessment of the decline of energy intensity per unit GDP in 2023 can be reduced to zero. On the other hand, real estate regulation and control policies will continue to be greatly relaxed in more cities under the framework of city-specific policies. Real estate is the most important credit accelerator in China. If the real estate sales are unstable, it is difficult for China's credit cycle to enter the upward stage. In February, the medium and long-term loans of new residents were negative for the first time, which was related to the sluggish real estate sales. The sales area of commercial housing in the top 100 cities nationwide in February decreased by nearly 40% year-on-year. Generally speaking, the GDP growth target in 2023 will be set at around 5.5%, which shows the determination and confidence of steady growth. However, judging from the high-frequency indicators and financial data in February, China's economy is still in the downward stage, and it is urgent to deploy and implement various steady growth policies as soon as possible. Fiscal policy will exert its strength at both ends of expenditure and income, which is expected to boost GDP growth by at least 1.3 percentage points. Although monetary easing is facing constraints, the credit easing policy will continue to increase, guiding banks to increase credit supply, reducing the cost of entity financing and lowering fees. Industrial policies will also be adjusted, and the double-carbon target and green transformation have little constraint on economic growth in 2023. Therefore, it is expected that more cities will greatly relax the regulation of real estate under the policy framework. Related questions and answers: