On June 4th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data. In late May, the national hog price was 15.7 yuan/kg, which was 1.3% higher than the previous price. So far, since the end of March this year, the pork price has achieved "seven consecutive rises", from 1 1.9 yuan/kg to 15.7 yuan/kg, with an increase of 32%.
Zhou, a macro researcher in the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, told the Securities Daily that the recent increase in pork prices was mainly driven by the market supply and demand mechanism, the return of pork prices to the "average level", the increase in breeding costs and the adjustment of the national pig policy. At present, the price of pork has been rising continuously, but the price of pig food is still in the national second-level early warning range, and pig farmers are still in the loss stage. Due to the influence of market supply and demand mechanism, pork prices are gradually approaching the equilibrium level.
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the continuous increase in pork prices was mainly due to the continuous decline in pork prices in the previous period and the decline in pig food prices, which led to pig breeding falling below the break-even point, and farmers would suffer serious losses, reducing the amount of pigs to be slaughtered or even reducing the amount of pigs to be slaughtered, thus triggering a new round of price increase cycle. In the process of falling pork prices, the purchasing and storage policy effectively suppressed the continuous decline of pig prices.
Talking about the impact on CPI, Liu Xiangdong believes that the rise of the new pig cycle is relatively moderate, but it still has a driving effect on CPI.
Zhou said that due to the high base last year, pork prices are still in the contraction range year-on-year, which is still a "drag" on CPI. However, with the moderate increase in pork prices, the influence of the base gradually weakened last year, and it is expected that the "drag" of pork prices on CPI will gradually narrow.
Looking into the future, Liu Xiangdong predicted that the pork price will still show a moderate upward trend in the future, and the pig production capacity is relatively abundant. However, the price increase of upstream raw materials will lead to an increase in the breeding cost, so the pork price will be pushed up in the future, but the overall increase will be higher than 202 1 year with a moderate upward trend.
Zhou believes that the subsequent pork prices will rise moderately and gradually return to an equilibrium level. There are four reasons. First, as the demand for domestic catering industry picks up, it is expected to drive the demand for pork to pick up; Second, farmers gradually adjust their production capacity; Third, compared with normal years, domestic aquaculture costs are at a high level; Fourth, the domestic pig purchasing and storage policy remains flexible.
"However, considering that the catering demand is in the recovery stage during the year, the pig production capacity is maintained at a high level, and the seasonal demand is not strong. Pork prices are expected to rise moderately. Judging from the performance of the futures market, it is expected that the market as a whole will be stable. In addition, it is necessary to prevent local extreme weather from interfering with pig breeding and logistics. " Zhou said to him.
Article source: Securities Daily