Most retail investors are willing to study whether there is a banker in the stocks they buy, and feel that the stocks with the main force are easier to make money. But in fact, whether retail investors or main players, buying and selling stocks is to make money, and timing is still very important. Timing is sometimes more important than choosing stocks. Some technical weaknesses are shared here for your reference.

Some inevitable technical defects

There are many ways to affect the rise and fall of stock price, among which the key is financial strength and theme planning, but these will eventually be implemented in the relationship between price and quantity. This situation is traceable and can be obtained by senior analysts. In-depth study of the inevitable technical weaknesses in the main operation is also the key for small and medium-sized investors to improve their investment level.

Due to the limited financial strength of small and medium-sized institutions, the stock selection standard of most small and medium-sized main institutions is that the circulation is below 50 million and there are fewer major controlling shareholders. It is best for joint-stock companies to have sub-new shares related to group companies with general fundamentals and distributable profits. The stock selection criteria of most institutions are mainly varieties with outstanding fundamental growth. Their movement is usually characterized by immobility, that is, at the expense of funds, they continue to rise and rise, and they are in place at one time. Because the operation purpose of the super main force is to control the index, and profit is the second, the standard of stock selection is mainly large-cap stocks with great market influence, and its launch is characterized by the continuous emergence of huge amounts. Most varieties that do not meet the above conditions will become active stock.

Of course, when the main force buys stocks, it tries to make a deal at the lowest possible price. In the initial stage of buying stocks, the main means is to create some immaterial negatives or use the weakness of the market to suppress the stock price. Its share price will fall significantly faster than other varieties, and there will be no instinctive rebound, which will affect the confidence of investors and sell shares at a low level, which is convenient for institutions to absorb goods. In the later period of the main force buying stocks, because the low chips have been absorbed by the main force, at this time, the main force will raise the stock price on the one hand and control the price on the other hand, so that it will not increase much. A small increase in the stock price will induce the profit-seekers and impatient lock-ups to throw out their stocks, thus achieving the goal of opening positions faster. When an institution opens a position, no matter how the stock price runs, the energy index will gradually rise.

After a period of collection, the main force has held a large number of chips, but the organization is worried that some short-term concentrated low-priced chips will not be thrown out for various reasons. In order to be more stable in the initial stage of the pull-up, the main force will make a violent fluctuation trend, which shows a scary trend, but it can rise a lot with only a small amount of buying.

There will be a relatively rapid continuous rise in the initial stage of the banker's pull-up, and then it will rise regularly with reference to a certain technical indicator. Careful analysis shows that this technical indicator may be a moving average system, an ascending channel or a dynamic and static indicator. When passing through the important resistance area, it will start a narrow oscillation trend to digest the resistance, and after crossing the resistance, it will accelerate the infinite rise. The main feature of the pull-up is that the quantity can rise and fall; When the market is strong, it does not move, but it accelerates when it is sorted, and it moves independently.

After the above four stages of operation, the purpose is actually to achieve high position. There are three main methods for the main shipment: repeatedly sideways at a high position, and there are often upper and lower shadow lines on the K-line chart; Appear positive, accelerate the opening rise, and fluctuate widely up and down; Put a lot of pressure on the stock price, create the illusion of changing houses, trade at a low level all day, and raise the stock price at the end of the day.

After investors seize a good stock, they should concentrate on the operation and not change their minds. Even if the main force has hundreds of millions of yuan of funds, it can only operate one or a few stocks, and there is no need for small and medium-sized institutions to operate too many stocks. Investors who struggle with different bookmakers every day are more likely to make mistakes than to succeed. Wait patiently after confirming that the stock you are concerned about is Zhuang stock. The operating cycle of an organization generally takes one quarter. Don't think that a fall is a dealer's shipment, and a rise is a dealer's purchase. In the analysis, we should stand in the position of the organization and be objective, so as to avoid seeing the positive and not seeing some obvious negative as soon as we buy stocks, and vice versa.

How to judge the support level and resistance level on the technical drawing

When judging the support level and resistance level, my usual method-I think it is the most accurate method-is to observe the historical price of the K-line chart of trading varieties. What is the highest point? What is the lowest point? What is the closing price? These can often explain the problem. This method of judging the support level and resistance level can be realized on the K-line chart (Balox) at any time: daily chart, weekly chart and monthly chart.

In most cases, the price will be concentrated in a certain area, not a certain point; If so, I will think that the area is a "support zone" or a "resistance zone". It should be pointed out that the range should not be too large, otherwise it will be of no reference significance to investors.

The top or bottom of the futures market often constitutes resistance or support; The unfilled gaps in the technical drawings also form effective support or resistance levels; The EMA also helps investors to judge the support level and resistance level; Observing the trend line can also judge the future support and resistance of the market. It should be noted that when the main support level is broken down, the support level is transformed into the main resistance level; When the main resistance level is broken, it becomes the main support level.

Another way to find the support level and resistance level is to observe the "retreat" of the price in the process of operation-that is, the price fluctuation opposite to the current trend, also called "adjustment" or "correction".

Let's take a round of rising market as an example: the market rose from 100 to 200 points, and then the price turned to the next retreat to 150 points, and then continued to attack, pushing the price higher. 150 is a 50% retracement of the market from 100 to 200. 150 points prove strong support. In other words, because the price has fallen by 50% and turned around again, the 50% retracement proves that the support is effective. The rise "callback" in the falling market is also a truth.

Some retracement percentages are of great practical significance for judging the support level and resistance level, such as 33%, 50% and 67%. There are also two numbers called Fibonacci odd numbers (Fibonacci is a mathematician): 38% and 62%. These five groups of figures are very helpful to judge the support level and resistance level.

Most good trading system software has these percentage retracement tools. As long as you click the starting point on the K-line chart in the price trend with the mouse, and then click the high point of the price, the percentage retracement number will be automatically displayed on the technical chart.

Another way to judge the support level and resistance level is to measure these two positions by geometric method based on a certain price.

Gann (who died in 1955), a legendary figure in the stock and commodity futures exchange, once actively advocated this method. He also used the five figures mentioned above to calculate his geometric angle (balox). Some advanced trading systems have "GANNFANS" to help you measure this angle.

Finally, the psychological price is used to determine the support level and resistance level, which are often integers. In the market, this method has been tried and tested.

For example, the psychological price of crude oil is 20 dollars/barrel, or 25 dollars/barrel, or 30 dollars/barrel; The psychological price of soybean is $5, $6 or $4; Fifty cents for cotton and five dollars for silver.

Chart technical analysis method

The basic factor analysis method is to analyze the basic economic factors affecting the relationship between supply and demand, and to study the reasons for exchange rate changes, while the technical analysis method focuses on the ways of exchange rate changes. Technical analysts believe that all the basic factors have been fully or partially reflected in the price trend, and the charts used for analysis really accumulate and express the actual supply and demand information, reflecting the psychological activities of traders such as joy, anger, sadness, joy, hope, estimation and speculation. Therefore, chart analysis is too important for today's traders.

The research tool of early technical analysis is chart. The so-called chart analysis, which has a long history in the world, is a research method that uses charts to record prices to study market forces and then determine the future trend of prices. The latest development of technical analysis is to add many quantitative methods to the traditional chart analysis. People use mathematical methods to design different forms of equations, evaluate the power of market price movement and determine the price trend. With the popularization and deepening of contemporary computer technology, quantitative analysis has become more and more important and has developed into an important school of technical analysis.

The function of chart analysis is mainly to systematically record the changes of market prices in the past. Take a bar chart as an example. Chart data includes the highest price, lowest price and closing price of daily transactions. The drawing method is: connect the two points of the highest price and the lowest price into a vertical line on the graph with the exchange rate as the ordinate and time as the abscissa, and draw the closing price at the corresponding point of the vertical line. Day after day, the price trend chart of different forms is formed on the coordinate map.

The histogram drawn by the same principle can be a weekly chart, a monthly chart, or even a chart for more than a few years. Faced with a series of market price charts, people often ask, since history will repeat itself, will the price patterns on the charts reappear? The answer is yes, technical analysts classify various forms of charts and find that charts often have striking similarities. They pointed out that studying charts is actually equivalent to studying people's psychology and their psychological change patterns. With these models, we can judge the past market atmosphere and predict the future price trend of exchange rate.

Chart analysis was originally applied to the stock market. Technical analysts believe that as long as the stock market price is purely determined by the principle of supply and demand, there will inevitably be a similar market atmosphere, whether it is commodity trading, stock trading or foreign exchange trading, it will produce a similar chart form. This is why chart analysis is quickly applied to futures trading and foreign exchange trading. What is the relationship between technical analysis and basic factor analysis? For technical analysis, there have always been different attitudes, some people feel abstruse and dare not ask; Some people rely entirely on charts and think they can do anything; Some people don't believe in charts, but only in basic factor analysis. In fact, most traders in the foreign exchange market feel that basic factor analysis should be combined with technical analysis.

In fact, in the final analysis, the exchange rate trend of the market should follow the basic factors, and the history of the change of the US dollar against major western currencies clearly illustrates this point. But in many cases, it is difficult to explain the trend of the US dollar exchange rate with basic factors, and it must be analyzed with the help of chart technology. Simply looking at the basic economic factors and ignoring the chart technical analysis will often lead to misjudgment and loss. For example, if you see that the economic data released by the United States is good, you buy dollars, and if the economic data is not good, you sell dollars, which often leads to difficulties. This is often the case in the market. The economic figures released by the euro zone are good, but from the perspective of chart technology, the euro shows an obvious downward trend. At this time, people simply ignore these figures and continue to sell euros. The role of supply and demand makes the euro fall more and more. On the contrary, sometimes the economic figures published by the United States are very poor, but the dollar has found a strong point in chart technology, prompting people to buy in large quantities, and the dollar has risen instead of falling. Of course, there are also many people who only look at charts and ignore economic factors, and there are also many successful people. However, many senior white traders believe that it is best to combine the two to forecast the exchange rate trend.

There are two basic types of chart technical analysis: histogram and dot chart. The materials needed to make the two charts are the highest price, lowest price and closing price of daily transactions, and the tools are a pen, a ruler and a drawing.

Histogram analysis method

First, the drawing method of histogram table

In a typical bar chart, the ordinate is the exchange rate and the abscissa is the time. First, find out the highest and lowest prices at the intersection of time and exchange rate, and connect the highest and lowest prices into a vertical line. The closing price is indicated by drawing a short line horizontally to the right at the corresponding point of the vertical line. As time goes by, draw a column line on the corresponding time coordinate every day, day after day, forming a histogram of ups and downs. The time interval of histogram can be divided by day, week or hour.

Second, the role of bar charts in analyzing exchange rate trends

(A) trend line chart and its analytical role

Drawing method of 1. trend line

Histogram records the change of exchange rate and provides a continuous picture of exchange rate responding to market forces. The purpose of analyzing the chart is to judge the changing trend of the exchange rate and the time required.

As we all know, the exchange rate changes are nothing more than rising, falling and stopping at the original level. If the exchange rate rises, it means that the buyer has the upper hand of the seller. If the exchange rate is repeated at some exchange rate levels, it means that the purchasing power is roughly equal to the selling pressure, forming a dense area on the chart, showing the market price. If the exchange rate falls, it means that the selling pressure is greater than the purchasing power.

The upward trend and downward trend of a currency price can be judged by the straight line connecting the highest point and the lowest point of the price. The drawing method is to connect two or more exchange rate lows to form a straight line, which is called the upward trend line. A straight line connecting two or more exchange rate highs is called a downtrend line. The more points on the uptrend line or downtrend line, the higher the reliability. With the development of exchange rate, the original trend line can be drawn in a certain period of time, and after a period of time, a new trend line can be drawn, and even multiple trend lines can be drawn. The validity of the trend line can be judged from the points where the trend line connects. The more points, the more reliable the trend.

2. Analysis function of trend line

(l) Upward trend line: also known as the support line of exchange rate decline.

Why is the lowest point connecting the exchange rate an upward trend line? Because the straight line connecting the lowest point supports all the transaction prices above the straight line, the exchange rates that fall together are like rising waves, one wave is higher than the other; When it falls back, every fall can't break this straight line, so we say it is the support line of the decline. As long as the exchange rate decline does not penetrate this line, even if the lowest point sometimes falls in a straight line, the upward trend of the exchange rate will not change. Conversely, the more the lowest point on a straight line increases, the more effective the trend line is.

(2) Downward trend line: also known as the resistance line of exchange rate rise. What does it mean that the straight line connecting the highest point of exchange rate is the downward trend line? Because the straight line connecting the highest point puts all the transaction prices under the straight line. A falling exchange rate is like a falling wave, getting lower and lower. In the meantime, I tried to rise many times. After falling to point D, it once rebounded to point C, but the highest price still failed to break through this diagonal. Obviously, the trend of exchange rate is lower and lower. Therefore, the downtrend line is also called the back pressure line; It means that the rebound of the exchange rate cannot be surpassed and broken. As long as the exchange rate cannot break through the downward trend line, we say that the downward trend has not changed.

(3) Reliability of trend line

The principle of reliability first, the purpose of drawing trend line is to make clear the general trend of market conditions first. In fact, the rise and fall of the exchange rate did not end in one day. We can call the rise and fall of the exchange rate a "journey". No matter how the exchange rate rises or falls, there are always many repetitions. There is a simple reason. When the exchange rate rises a lot, the profits of people who buy at low prices are flat, and the selling pressure follows, which suppresses the buyer's power. On the contrary, after the exchange rate has fallen a lot, people who are short at high prices will close their positions at low prices and make profits. Buying came one after another, which depressed the strength of the seller. As mentioned above, the more points on the uptrend line, the stronger the support; The more points on the downtrend line, the greater the back pressure and the higher the reliability.

The second principle is that the longer the trend line span, the higher the reliability and the greater the effectiveness. As time goes by, the trend line will be redrawn continuously. If, after half a year, the exchange rate rises several times, draw an upward trend line connecting point AB. At the end of half a year, the exchange rate fell below the upward trend line, that is, the support line, and fell downward. In the next ten days, the market price fluctuated up and down, hitting the low C. Then, before the market price fell again, we can temporarily connect the two points A and C to form a new trend line, which is certainly more effective than the AB line to support the exchange rate decline. That is to say, in the future iteration, when the exchange rate falls, the probability of falling below the AC line is much smaller than that of falling below the AB line. Later, the exchange rate continued to fall until point D, which was connected to the AD line. In fact, after reaching point D, the exchange rate rebounded to point E before falling back. However, since it took nearly a year from point A to point D, that is to say, it took a year to draw the AD line, the probability of falling below the AD line is even smaller than that of falling below the AC line.

(4) Breakthrough of trend line

The purpose of drawing a trend line is, first, to judge the end of a trend or the beginning of a new trend and seize the opportunity to buy or sell. The second is to judge the time of holding positions in order to capture huge profits. Judging the end of the old trend and the beginning of the new trend according to the trend line mainly depends on observing the signal of the broken line. Broken line means that the exchange rate breaks through the trend line and develops in the opposite direction.

(5) buy signal and sell signal

In the long upward process, the exchange rate rose repeatedly, and finally fell back and fell below the upward trend line. Point C on the support line is a sell signal, indicating the end of the upward trend and the beginning of a small downward trend. On the contrary, in the long downward process, the exchange rate repeatedly fell, and finally stopped falling and rebounded, and broke through the downward trend line upwards. Point B on the resistance line was the buyer's signal.

(6) Seize the opportunities of buyers and sellers by using trend lines.

In the actual transaction, the timing of breaking the line is important, but after all, it is a trend change, which will take a long time to happen. However, with the help of Trend Line, people can also seize other trading opportunities.

Purchase opportunity

We know that the exchange rate will rise and fall repeatedly under the influence of various factors. In the upward trend, market prices may plummet due to some political and economic unexpected news or profit taking. However, before the end of a rising or falling journey, often as soon as the exchange rate falls near the support line, there will be a lot of buying to support the exchange rate, and smart technical investors will seize this opportunity to enter the market to purchase goods. Adventure investors will also enter the market early when the exchange rate falls close to but does not reach the support line, for fear that they will not be able to buy bargains. Capturing such opportunities often brings huge profits. Of course, if the exchange rate reaches the support line instead of rebounding and falls below the support line, it should decisively lighten the position, "turn the gun" and join the ranks of selling.

sales opportunities

Similarly, in the downtrend, the downtrend line can provide the best selling opportunity. Please refer to the above for your own inference.

(7) Holding positions

Trend lines can also be used to judge the holding time. Holding positions is a common behavior of investment. After investors buy a currency, if they have confidence in the rise of the exchange rate, they will wait for the opportunity and not sell it for the time being. On the other hand, if he is confident that the exchange rate will fall after selling a certain currency, he will bide his time and not buy it back. The act of expanding or continuing to make profits by closing positions without holding positions is called holding positions. In order to grab huge profits, medium and long-term investors often do this. The holding time can be long or short, and the trend line is an important basis for them to decide the holding time.