CICC liquor stocks have been continuously adjusted recently.

[60 1995.SS，03908。 After repeated cycles, liquor of HKEx thinks that it may have entered the bottom area at present.

1) liquor cycle is repeated: the switch of mood and fund style has limited influence on the time and range of liquor index adjustment.

The liquor index * * * has gone through four cycles, namely

2000- 03, 2004-08, 2009- 13, 20 14- 18.

Among them, 200 1, due to the introduction of specific tax and the adjustment of SARS epidemic, lasted for 10 quarter, with the maximum withdrawal of 53%, but forced the industry to upgrade to high prices.

In 2004, the business scene expanded and the industry entered "golden decade". The valuation (pe-ttm, the same below) increased from 24X in 2004 to 1 12X in 2007. In 2008, due to the high valuation and the adjustment of the financial crisis, it lasted for four quarters, and the maximum retreat was 6 1%.

In 2009, the "4 trillion plan" brought wealth effect, and the wholesale price of high-end liquor rose rapidly, and the valuation rose from 2 1X in 2009 to 46X in 12. At the end of 12, due to the introduction of "eight regulations" and other adjustments, it lasted for 6 quarters, and the maximum withdrawal was 60%.

In 14, the demand for liquor picked up, and the consumption upgrade promoted the expansion of high-end liquor, and the valuation rose from 9X in 14 to 41x in 18; 18 in the second half of the year, due to the expected slowdown in economic growth, the demand for liquor was adjusted, which lasted for two quarters and the maximum withdrawal was 40%.

2) The expectation of policy supervision triggered liquor oversold. In the second half of the bottom interval, the market style switched, funds were transferred to growth sectors such as new energy, and the valuation of liquor dropped from a high level. However, the outbreak of spot epidemic, the expectation of tax policy and the concern of regulatory policy have amplified the market pessimism, leading to further correction of the sector.

CICC。 SS，03908。 HKEx thinks that this adjustment is similar to 20 18, and it has reached the bottom layout range:

1) are all caused by pessimistic market expectations, but the fundamentals have not changed much. For example, 18 is the expectation of slowing economic growth, and the market is worried that the demand for liquor will decline in the second half of the year; This time, it is expected that there will be sporadic outbreaks and regulatory policies. The market is worried about the Mid-Autumn Festival liquor sales and the slowdown in the second half of the year.

2) The maximum withdrawal rate is 38% for two quarters, which is close to the maximum withdrawal rate of 40% for 20 18 and lasts for two quarters.

3) The fundamentals of liquor have not changed, and the structural prosperity has continued.

With the improvement of per capita disposable income and the rapid rise of the middle class, the next high-end liquor (300 yuan) and above will continue to prosper. It is estimated that the high-end production capacity will exceed 300 billion yuan in 25 years, and Maowu Road will continue to enjoy the dividend of consumption upgrading.

The competition pattern of sub-high-end industries has not yet solidified, and there is still room for further improvement in the market share of national sub-high-end, pan-national sub-high-end and sauce and wine leading enterprises.

This year, the price of LNG shows a "low season", and the long-term price center will continue to rise.

1) This year, the price of L NG is characterized by "not weak in the off-season"

On August 10, the market price of China's L NG has reached 5403 yuan/ton, up11.6% year-on-year, up 59.4% compared with the same period in 20 19.

Reason 1: On the demand side, the apparent consumption of natural gas has increased. In the first half of the year, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China reached182.7 billion cubic meters, with a compound growth rate of 10.5% in the same period of two years. On the one hand, the dual-carbon target accelerates coal to gas, and the demand for natural gas increases rapidly. It is predicted that the demand for natural gas will maintain positive growth during the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the Tenth Five-Year Plan, with compound growth rates of 6% and 8% respectively, and the consumption will reach 435 billion cubic meters and 639.2 billion cubic meters respectively.

At present, relevant policies have been introduced in many places, and "coal to gas" may accelerate. On the other hand, the strong recovery of the industry will drive the increase of gas consumption. In the first half of the year, China's power generation reached 3.87 trillion kWh, an average increase of 7.2% in the same period of two years.

The second reason: the rise in international natural gas prices has pushed up domestic costs. At the global level, the process of carbon emission reduction has been accelerated. 130 More than 30 countries and regions have put forward the climate goal of "zero carbon" or "carbon neutrality". At the same time, affected by the international economic recovery, the international demand for natural gas has increased, and the supply and demand are tight. In addition, this year's high temperature and rising international natural gas prices have pushed up the import price of natural gas in China.

In June of 2002 1 year, the average import price of LNG in China was 448. 1 USD/ton, which was17.0% higher than that in June.

The average import price of PNG was US$ 264.9/ton, up 7% from 65438+ 10. In addition, China's dependence on natural gas imports is relatively high, averaging over 40% in recent years. This has led to an increase in international natural gas prices and pushed up domestic costs.

2) It is expected that the balance will remain tight in the second half of the year, and the long-term price center may rise.

Demand side: In terms of domestic consumption, it is estimated that the annual apparent consumption will reach 380.7 billion cubic meters, up 17. 1% year-on-year. On the export side, it is estimated that the annual export volume will reach 4.32 million tons, corresponding to about 6 billion cubic meters.

Supplier: Natural gas supply mainly includes domestic production, LNG import and Papua New Guinea import. It is estimated that the annual output will reach 208.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Imports of liquefied natural gas1186 billion cubic meters, up 26.2% year-on-year; Papua New Guinea imported 56 billion cubic meters, up 15.8% year-on-year.

Supply and demand: We use the ratio of supply and demand to represent the balance between supply and demand. The supply-demand ratio in the first half of the year is about

1.003, 0.9802 in the second half of the year. Therefore, in the short term, it is expected that the supply and demand of natural gas in China will remain in a tight balance in the second half of the year. In the long run, under the two-carbon target, the growth rate of natural gas demand will increase significantly before peaking, and the price center of medium and long-term natural gas market may move up.

To sum up, it is expected that China's natural gas market will maintain a tight balance in the second half of this year, and the price will continue to rise as the winter heating season approaches. In the long run, it is the best choice for the transition to renewable energy. Under the goal of double carbon, it is predicted that the demand for natural gas will maintain positive growth during the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the Tenth Five-Year Plan, with compound growth rates of 6% and 8% respectively. The sustained growth of demand is expected to push the domestic price center up in the future.