As we all know, from the appearance of money to the beginning of the 20th century, gold and silver were like twin brothers for about 5,000 years. They all act as money to measure the value of human goods. To calculate the value of gold, you should use silver to measure it. If the price of silver is considered, it should be measured by gold.
However, no one can say clearly what the value ratio of gold and silver should be.
There is no doubt that the content of silver in the earth's crust is much more than that of gold (according to modern measurement, it is about 17 times). However, compared with gold, silver is much more active chemically and easily oxidized in the air. There are many natural gold (such as placer gold, rock gold, gold nuggets, etc.). ), but there is little natural silver. The mining of silver ore still needs some technology.
In ancient Egypt 5000 years ago, there was a record of "one cent gold, two cents silver", that is to say, the value ratio of gold and silver was 2, because ancient Egypt was rich in gold at that time, but silver had to be imported from Greece. Later, as more and more silver was imported, the ancient Egyptians set the value ratio of gold and silver as 10.
In the 6th century BC, the Lydians who first minted metal money set the exchange ratio of gold and silver as 10, while the Persian Empire set the value ratio of gold and silver as 12.
As far as the total output of gold and silver in western society before 1500 is concerned, its proportion is about 1: 10, and the Lydians who first minted metal money also belonged to the Alexander Empire of ancient Greek civilization, and their gold and silver exchange ratio was also 10.
From the Roman Republic to the Roman Empire to the Middle Ages in Europe, with the increase of silver production, the ratio of gold to silver increased from 10 to about 12~ 15.
Ancient people have always been puzzled by the change of the value ratio of gold and silver. For them, this seems to be the arrangement of heaven. According to their own knowledge, combined with the myth and legend that gold represents the sun and the moon represents the moon, they gave a rather "scientific" statement-"Because the moon bypasses the ecliptic and is 13.3 times faster than the sun, the value of gold should be 13 times that of silver.
However, we in China never seem to consider such a "scientific" explanation. As the core of China's economy, the Central Plains silver mine has been scarce in history, so ancient China has its own characteristics, and the ratio of gold to silver has been maintained at a low level of 4~7, from about 5 in the early days to about 7 in the middle of the Ming Dynasty.
After the era of geographical discovery, with the discovery of many large silver mines in Latin America, the progress of silver mining technology and the faster increase of silver output compared with gold, the international gold-silver ratio has further increased to about 15.
Then, the international arbitrage of gold-silver ratio began.
Because gold and silver in China are relatively low, silver in China is far more expensive than that in Europe, and gold is cheaper than that in Europe. Europeans came all the way to China with their silver mined from the United States. In addition to buying silk and porcelain from China, they also bought gold from China, which slowly pushed up the price of gold in China.
Another consequence of this is that China has more and more silver and less gold. By the late Ming Dynasty, the value ratio of gold and silver in China had reached about 10. .
After the industrial revolution, when the mining technology of silver and gold progressed simultaneously, the change of the proportion of gold and silver was not so obvious. From17th century to19th century, the ratio of gold to silver basically remained between 15 and 16.
Because silver is sent to the east, there is more gold and less silver in western countries. Since Britain, western countries have gradually abolished the gold and silver standard (gold and silver are both currencies). By the second half of the19th century, with the adoption of the gold standard in major industrial countries (Germany, France, the United States, Russia, etc. After Britain, the price of silver was under great pressure-because everyone regarded gold as the most important national reserve. However, considering that silver is an ordinary commodity, governments no longer focus on storing silver, but begin to dump silver in the international market, resulting in a sharp decline in the value of silver relative to gold, and the ratio of silver to gold has soared from 15 to 30-40.
After the outbreak of World War I, the ratio of gold to silver began to decline, from about 40 of191to about 16 of 1920, and then slowly rose to about 40 of 1929.
From 65438 to 0929, the world-wide economic crisis broke out, and all governments regarded gold reserves as a lifeline. As governments around the world sold their original silver reserves to save their economies, the price of silver plummeted. 1929 The average annual price of silver is still about 0.5 USD/oz. 1932, on the eve of China giving up silver as a reserve currency, the average annual price of silver actually fell to the lowest in history, and the ratio of gold to silver naturally soared from 38.7 in 1929 to 1932.
On July 22nd, 1933, the International Silver Agreement attended by Australia, Canada, China, the United States, India, Mexico, Peru and Spain was formally signed at the London Monetary and Economic Conference. The agreement is valid for four years, and its purpose is to ease the fluctuation of international silver prices and stipulate the silver sales quota of the contracting governments.
At that time, Australia, Canada, the United States, Mexico and Peru, five silver-producing countries, agreed not to sell silver during the agreement period, and recovered 35 million ounces of silver from the market every year, while China, the largest silver user at that time, promised not to sell the raw silver obtained by melting coins during the agreement period.
With 1934, the Roosevelt administration devalued the US dollar once and for all, the price of silver also began to bottom out, reaching 1935, and the average price reached 0.58 US dollars per ounce-but this was only the devaluation of paper money, and the ratio of gold to silver did not shrink much.
With the persistence of the Great Depression and the shadow of the Second World War, governments around the world began to snap up gold and ban its export. By contrast, Silver became a bitch. By 1939 and 1940, the price of silver had been below 0.35 USD/oz for a long time, and the ratio of gold to silver suddenly rushed to a rare height above 100.
After World War II, because the Bretton Woods system established a stable monetary system all over the world, and the western government of the United States did not allow private ownership of gold, people could only buy silver in precious metals, which promoted the gradual recovery of silver prices. The price of silver rose slowly from about $0.35 to1968+0940s, then rebounded to $0.7/oz, then to1965+0950s, and finally to1kloc-0 determined in 1972 when the United States was founded.
In contrast, the price of gold was set at $35 per ounce by the US government, so the ratio of gold to silver decreased from 65438+ 100 in the 1940s to about 27. On the eve of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the price of silver has risen to about 1.65 USD/oz, which is about 65% different from the official gold price of 35 USD/oz.
The collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the fixed exchange rate system made the people of the world (including the American people) see the face of dollar spamming, so the price of silver rose rapidly. In just a few years, from 1, 97 1 to 1.29, it rose to 1, 973' s 2.9, and the price increased by more than 65438+.
At this time, a big speculator entered the American silver market. He contacted several wealthy partners such as the Saudi royal family and began to buy a lot of silver. This buying is enough to stimulate the price of silver to rise sharply to $4.3 per ounce-and then they keep buying, buying and buying. ...
Finally, the price of silver began to skyrocket at 1979, from $6 to 1 1 USD. With the continuous influx of off-site speculators, the price of silver has become more and more crazy-from 1 1 USD to USD 20, and then to USD 30 to1USD 979.
At this time, the exchange rate of gold and silver fell to about 12 times, setting a new historical low since mankind entered the modern society.
1980 65438+ 10, the price of silver reached an incredible height at that time-50 dollars/ounce.
Now, even the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government, which print dollars, can't stand such a rise. The US Commodity Exchange Commission finally began to "investigate" and "supervise" the silver futures market, which immediately led to a sharp drop in silver prices. ...
Within two months, the price of silver has dropped from a high of $50/ounce to 10 $/ounce!
Since then, silver has fallen into a long bear market for 20 years, and its price has plummeted. From 198 1 to 1983, the price of silver hardly remained around 10 USD/oz. From 1984 to 1992, the price of silver fell all the way to the lowest of 1992, about $3.6 per ounce, and then kept fluctuating around $5 for a long time.
At the same time, the ratio of gold to silver soared from the highest point 12 to the highest point 1990.
Throughout the 1990s, the price of gold and silver fell into a long bear market path until it hit a low of 200 1-2002-but the highest ratio of gold and silver was only 80.
Since 2002, gold and silver have once again entered the bull market, rising to more than 1 1,000 USD/oz in 2008, and the ratio of gold to silver has dropped to 50-60 again.
When the financial crisis broke out in 2008, gold and silver rose sharply and then fell sharply, which once made the ratio of gold to silver rise above 80 again in 2009. From 20 10 to 20 1 1, with the increase of silver price far exceeding that of gold, the ratio of gold to silver decreased all the way, and fell to about 40 in April of 20 1 1.
Since 20 1 1, with the price of gold and silver falling again, the ratio of gold to silver has gradually increased again.
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