Judging from the two main logics that drive the nickel market, whether it is the elastic logic of new energy or the trend logic of nickel-iron stainless steel,

Nickel prices still have room to fall in the short to medium term. Only when the price falls, the profits between the market industrial chains will be redistributed and a new balance will be found.

Point, the industrial chain can develop healthily.

In May, the price of nickel jumped up and down, ranging from 94540 to 102830.

Once again, it explains what "devil nickel" is. June 7th and June 10,

Two consecutive Dayang lines broke through the downward channel in one fell swoop, and many people began to abandon them.

Calm down: Will the follow-up trend continue to rise? According to the author,

Although it has broken through the downward channel, it is still not enough to constitute a trend increase.

Conditions.

From a technical point of view, continuous lightening means shorting.

Although it is not a sufficient condition, the bull did not pursue victory.

However, there is no need for trend growth. June 1 1 is really touching.

The top fell, the price continued to decline and returned to the downtrend channel. Or this time

The decline in lightening positions indicates that the bulls have begun to run away, and the bears are not significant.

Masukura, so what's the next step?

Generally speaking, there are two completely different logics in nickel smelting: one is

New energy chain, nickel-nickel sulfate-ternary battery-new energy vehicle, etc.

Mainly responsible for the elasticity of nickel price; The second is a nickel-iron stainless steel chain, which mainly

Responsible for the trend change of nickel price.

The new energy chain is still the main variable to restrain nickel valence elasticity in the short and medium term.

Because finance (local finance) has reduced or even cancelled new energy sources.

With the subsidy of automobiles, the driving logic of new energy vehicles in the future will be changed by external forces.

Into internal force, the new energy automobile industry (including ternary batteries) or

In the intense foam extrusion stage, the new energy chain is very important for nickel in the short term.

It is of little significance to the positive pull of price, especially the elasticity of nickel price.

Sex may be temporarily absent.

Recently, although Guangdong province has relaxed the purchase restriction policy, the market reaction is one.

So-so, and there is great uncertainty in policy and time, which leads to nickel.

The meaning of the collar is relatively small.

Generally speaking, the relative index of lithium battery or new energy vehicle stage

The index is ahead of the nickel price 1-2 quarter. At present, new energy vehicles

The relevant index is still at the bottom in the short term.

Nickel-iron stainless steel chain will not change positively in the short term.

At present, the focus of the market on this traditional chain lies in ferronickel.

How to solve the production schedule and inventory pressure of stainless steel?

nickelferrite

At present, according to our tracking results, the stimulation of high profits

Next, the progress of ferronickel production was advanced as scheduled, and the price of ferronickel was under downward pressure.

More and more, further compressing the profit space of ferronickel plant from testing.

Judging from the data, the overall profit of ferronickel is not bad. Some small factories are special.

It is the process of EF in Inner Mongolia, and it may face a loss situation. This

This is also an inevitable rebalancing process. Low cost process, regional substitution

High cost technology and area will be the inevitable trend.

Judging from the global cost, the current price level is enough to stimulate.

Nickel can only be achieved by passively removing high-cost processes and regional production capacity by increasing capital expenditure and increasing production capacity.

Rebalancing of steel market. We know that the cost curve of ferronickel is steep,

But when the price of LME nickel reaches 12000 USD, the curve is flat and marginal.

The proportion of production capacity is not small, and the downward pressure on prices will also get high costs.

Boycott, the price decline may not be very smooth.

With the introduction of ferronickel, the downward pressure on the price of ferronickel is prominent, so

The price-performance ratio of ferronickel and refined nickel is amplified, so the nickel price is also formed.

A fatal blow drives the overall cost of stainless steel raw materials down.

What we are concerned about is that all the major places in the country are counted by the Steel Union.

After 26 months of decline, the nickel and iron stocks in this area have finally bottomed out.

Rebound, the month-on-month was flat in March, and the month-on-month growth in April was 3.7%, which was also a.

A landmark event, ferronickel may not be far from the critical point.

Stainless steel is under pressure of maintenance and production reduction.

From the end of finished products, 2065438+April 2009, 27 domestic mainstream companies did not.

The crude steel output of Rust Steel Plant was 2,403,800 tons, 2.98 less than that in March.

1 10,000 tons, a decrease of1.22%; Compared with last year, it increased by 268,900 tons, with an increase of.

The amplitude is 12.6%.

According to the scheduling data of various steel mills, the total scheduling in May was basically the same.

Same as in April. The planned total output in May is 2.4 million -24 1 10,000 tons.

The year-on-year growth rate was 17.56%, which was flat from the previous month.

Indonesia: Indonesia's stainless steel production in April was 6.5438+0.6 million tons, all of which were

The department is 300 series, down 30.43% from the previous month and down 20% from the same period last year. print

Nepal's output in May was180,000 tons, up 12.5% from the previous month.

First of all, from the current scheduling situation, steel mills are gradually making profits.

Compression and relatively pessimistic expectations for the future still maintain high output, which

It is also a rational choice for steel mills at present. Second, although social inventory has become a

Step hit a new high, but the inventory of steel mills is still going smoothly.

The effect of transfer is still relatively good, which is one of the reasons for the high output of steel mills.

Reason. Therefore, we believe that the phenomenon of short-term production scheduling in steel mills will still be postponed.

Continued, but in the case that the downstream receiving capacity is gradually weakened, the steel mills in the later period

Inventory pressure will be further highlighted, forcing steel mills to cut production and overhaul.

This is the main reason for the current market worries.

From the raw material side, the raw materials of steel mills have experienced a wave of replenishment.

Back to the high neutral, late strength to make up for the lack of strength, after

Whether subjectively or objectively, steel mills have the power to suppress the price of raw materials.

Further enhance.

From the point of view of nickel-iron stainless steel chain, the contradiction of the whole product chain

The new balance can only be achieved through price reduction, in which the ferronickel industry and

The profit distribution pattern between stainless steel industries will also change.

The overall profit of the industry moved down to the stainless steel industry. From the end of March

As can be seen from the market, in fact, the ferronickel industry has been shifting profits.

Running in the stainless steel industry.

The refined nickel market itself still lacks effective support.

The main contradiction in refined nickel market lies in import and low inventory.

First of all, with the gradual opening of the import window this year, the later period

The import probability of refined nickel will gradually increase. Imports in April 1.9 1 10,000 tons.

It increased by 68.75% month-on-month, which may be arbitrage with the VAT relief policy.

Related, can not be directly proved. Secondly, we have risen from the domestic spot.

You can see the changes in the market by discounting water. Since the beginning of May, is Jinchuan Nickel still there?

It was the peak of the nickel premium in Russia that began to fall all the way. So far, Russian nickel

Has entered the discount state (-100), Jinchuansheng 600, nickel bean paste.

750, indirectly indicating the relatively abundant supply in the market. and

Second, from the perspective of inventory, it began to pick up for four consecutive weeks and reached a low point.

The inventory of 5000 tons also shows that the relationship between supply and demand in the market has begun to reverse. most

Later, on the issue of forcibly opening positions. The possibility of China's forced position is getting lower and lower.

In the early LME market, people thought that the limelight of forced liquidation by violence had passed, 03

Premium water returns below the 0 axis again.

Where will "Devil Nickel" go?

Judging from the logic of two main lines to promote the nickel market, whether it is new or not,

The elastic logic of energy is still the trend logic of nickel-iron stainless steel, in the short and medium term.

Between the market industrial chains, nickel prices still have room to fall, but the price has fallen.

Profit redistribution, finding a new balance point, the industrial chain can be more

Healthy development.