Of course there are risks when buying funds! It depends on your fund selection methods and techniques.

What funds should we buy in 2008?

2007 was a glorious year for China’s fund industry. The Shanghai Composite Index rose fourfold, and funds that doubled their net worth were everywhere. Investors relied on the expansion of the A-share market this year. Also made a lot of money. In the face of 2008, when regulatory pressure has begun to appear, fund investors, rather than thinking hard about the trend of the stock market next year, might as well make a summary at the end of the year, so that they can better grasp investment opportunities and avoid investment risks next year.

QDII funds are undoubtedly the new fund category that has attracted the most attention this year. Although the current start is unfavorable, and from a global perspective, the possibility of global allocation funds making 20% ??profit every year is very slim. However, QDII There is no doubt that funds help domestic investors choose opportunities in other markets and avoid the A-share market, which has a higher overall valuation. Moreover, QDII funds and A-share funds are by no means an either/or relationship.

Among A-share funds, given that my country’s capital market construction is not complete, passive investment index funds do not yet have the conditions to continuously and stably defeat active funds, but they can allow investors to obtain the average returns of the market. , to avoid heavy losses due to wrong proactive operations by fund managers.

This year, many investors have gradually understood that funds with a face value of 1 yuan are not necessarily good. The sales performance of some recent transformation funds cannot be compared with those in July and August. However, the new funds are not without their advantages. , whether there is substantial product innovation, whether there are new ideas in investment concepts, and the timing of opening a position are all factors that measure the success of a new fund.

QDII fund or A-share fund?

Shortly after the four QDII funds of China Southern, HuaXia, Harvest, and CIJ Morgan went overseas, more than 7 million fund holders immediately suffered a total book loss of more than 12 billion yuan, with an average floating loss ratio of As high as more than ten percent, it is a clear reminder: "It is easier said than done to make foreigners' money?!" Of course, it is not just the "Christians" who invest in QDII who deserve vigilance on this issue. A Chinese investment company with a strong background has "stumped" on the "Black Stone" and even now has a potential loss of US$700 million. It also gives people a clear reminder: "It is easier said than done to make foreigners' money?!" People We can’t help but ask, is overseas investment more exciting or more helpless?

Although the fund QDII fund had a bad start, we need to conduct a rational analysis. In the short term, the objective reason is that the European and American stock markets have not yet shaken off the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, and the Hong Kong market has suddenly lost the expected support of the Hong Kong stock through train. QDII funds are generally too large due to irrational pursuit, and the funds of fund companies going overseas for the first time. Navigation capabilities are generally not high; in the long run, we need to calmly analyze the risk and return characteristics of QDII funds and A-share funds to make correct judgments and choices.

Let’s take a look at the expected investment income of QDII. The possibility of global allocation funds issued by other countries to earn 20% every year is very slim. This is close to Buffett’s level, but there is only one Buffett. However, the annual investment return rate of 20% is a level that many domestic bond funds can achieve. It is conceivable how high everyone’s expectations for the investment return rate of domestic stock funds are.

Generally speaking, investing in QDII from the perspective of long-term investment, risk diversification, and maintaining a moderate return expectation is the most ideal investment mentality that QDII investors should maintain at present. China itself is the world's largest emerging market. With QDII products, Chinese people can optimize asset allocation on a global asset platform. At the same time, fund companies may also wish to invest in mature markets other than the A-share market that are still relatively strong in economic growth but have limited relevance to mainland China. The relatively mature market is no less attractive than China's domestic listed companies. At the same time, there is no need to sell A-share funds to buy QDII in the short term. QDII and A-share funds have different risk-return characteristics. The overall valuation of A-shares is relatively high, but the growth potential of China's economy is also unparalleled. Just like buying clothes, the price of the clothes may be more expensive but the quality is also very good. Maybe you are willing to spend more to buy good quality goods. . Relatively speaking, Japan's valuation is low, but its growth rate is not as good as China's, capital attention is also lower, and the supply and demand relationship in the stock market is also different. Those who like bargains can consider choosing this type of market. In the final analysis, it still depends on the investor's own risk preference. The most important thing about QDII is that it gives domestic investors the opportunity to choose other markets, but its relationship with the A-share market is not an either/or one.

Passive funds or active funds?

The existence of index funds is reasonable. Its main advantages are: because it uses the performance of simulated indexes to select stocks, managers can just keep an eye on the index and do not need to actively select stocks. Therefore, You can charge less management fees; at the same time, you can hold very high positions in stocks, and you can enjoy the benefits of the rising stock market in the bull market.

Because they passively track the index and are able to take advantage of the trend when the index rises, index funds in 2006 and 2007 benefited from the doubling of the market when they made substantial profits. At the same time, index funds do not require fund managers to invest too much energy in market research and individual stock screening, nor do they need to exchange shares frequently. Therefore, it is ensured that the fund's income is close to the market's rate of return and avoids heavy losses due to wrong active operations. In China, although actively managed stock funds undoubtedly still occupy the absolute mainstream in the fund market, since 2006 and 2007, almost all index funds have performed well, not only defeating most actively managed stock funds, but also outperforming all funds. It topped the list of net worth growth and stole the limelight.

In fact, passive investment needs to meet several market conditions before it can exert considerable power.

First of all, in a market where information plays a leading role in resource allocation, actively searching and sorting out information and selecting stocks can undoubtedly beat passive investment. In my country's stock market, a scientific and reasonable price discovery mechanism requires long-term efforts to establish. Therefore, in the medium and long term, as the stock market fluctuates at high levels, index funds do not yet have the conditions to consistently and stably defeat most actively managed stock funds. .

Looking forward to 2008 and 2009, with the launch of stock index futures, index funds, especially index funds or ETF funds based on the CSI 300, will have obvious opportunities for band operations and short-term arbitrage. With the increase in institutional investors, the effectiveness of China's stock market is gradually improving. To beat the market, you need to beat other institutional investors, which increases the difficulty of beating the index. Therefore, when the market rises unilaterally, index funds are an investment type with higher returns. In the long term, index funds with medium-sized underlying indexes such as the CSI 300 Index are expected to perform well.

Secondly, the alternation of bear market and bull market or the continuous bear market will cause some sectors or stocks to rise, but the index does not rise or even falls. At this time, the results of index investment are undoubtedly unsatisfactory. Although the stock market fluctuated and adjusted in 2006 and 2007, the magnitude and duration were relatively limited. Therefore, index funds basically operated in a bull market with almost unilateral rise, and naturally performed well. After 2008, whether index funds can perform the same wonderful performance depends on the pattern and form of stock index operations in the future.

To sum up, in the current market environment, historical empirical data and theoretical analysis all show one thing, that is: different market conditions have their own strengths. The rational choice in an irrational market is to buy actively managed funds and let the professional management team use their strengths to earn profits for investors that exceed the market's returns. Of course, it has become more difficult to select active funds after 2008. After all, the performance of many active funds since 2007 has varied widely. However, if my country's stock market develops and matures to the level of the U.S. market, or if we predict that the Chinese stock market in 2008 and 2009 will still be a short-term bull market with mid-term shocks and a near-unilateral rise, there is no doubt that index funds should be the first choice.

Bond funds or stock funds?

In the past two years, stock funds have created astonishing investment returns, causing bond funds to become a thing of the past. Beginning in May and October 2007, the stock market experienced significant adjustments, and bond funds, especially those that could issue new stocks, suddenly emerged. As of the end of November, in the investment performance rankings in the past three months, a limited number of bond funds actually occupied the top 10 seats. As a result, bond funds showed a rare net subscription pattern. Most bond funds in 2007 The investment return rate is as high as about 20%.

Let’s first look at the sources of bond fund excess returns. Since 2007, the investment operation of bond funds has been relatively difficult against the backdrop of multiple interest rate hikes. A pure bond fund can obtain an annualized rate of return of 4% to 5%, which is quite good. So, where does the additional excess return come from? From the perspective of performance attribution analysis, most of the excess returns come from the stock investment part. In view of the fact that China's stock issuance market has become the largest in the world in recent years, the stock secondary trading market coincides with the bull market, and institutional investors such as bond funds have With comparative advantages in funds, information, expertise, subscription qualifications, etc., it is natural for bond funds to share the feast of stock issuance and obtain relatively stable and considerable investment returns. Originally, only a few bond funds such as Baokang Bond Fund and Dacheng Bond Fund could subscribe for new shares. Later, most bond funds revised their fund contracts and joined the ranks of purchasing new shares. It is said that only Rongtong and China Merchants Bond Funds have not yet transformed.

Let’s analyze the market prospects of bond funds. In the short term, China's stock market will remain one of the most active and largest stock issuance markets in the world in the foreseeable future, and most bond funds can participate in the purchase of new shares. The history of the stock market shows that whether you purchase new shares at home or abroad, whether in a bear market or a bull market, you can obtain relatively stable investment returns. Therefore, the expected investment return rate of most bond funds in 2008 and 2009 will still reach 5% to 20%.

Of course, pure bond funds will still earn little in the foreseeable interest rate hike cycle, especially if inflation accelerates, and the real yield will be lower. In the medium term, as fund investment has gradually become more popular among the people, the process of Chinese people switching their savings to funds will continue. Using fund financial management or other financial management plans to replace their own savings will surely become an irreversible choice for the people. As the government vigorously promotes Measures in the bond market continue to be implemented, the scale of treasury bonds, financial bonds, corporate bonds, and convertible bonds is expanding day by day, and the scale of bond funds is expected to continue to expand. In the long run, due to the risk-return characteristics of lower risks and relatively stable returns, bond funds will surely become an important variety for people to make diversified allocations and long-term investments. Of course, from a long-term perspective, as the world-famous fund manager Peter Lynch said, if you want long-term investment to appreciate faster, investing in the bond market is not as good as investing in the stock market. This article/Song Sanjiang, Marketing Director of Huabao Xingye Fund Management Co., Ltd.

New fund or old fund?

In 2007, fund issuance was extremely popular and set world records repeatedly. Even the newly launched QDII funds saw an unprecedented event of hundreds of billions of dollars chasing a single fund, so much so that the regulatory authorities had to take first-come-first-served measures. Measures such as first-come-first-served, doomsday proportional allotment, full proportional allotment, and even suspension of fund issuance limit the scale of newly issued funds. The continuous subscription marketing of old funds pales in comparison, leading many fund companies to carry out continuous subscription marketing through fund splits, large proportions of dividends, fund duplication, and closed-to-open transactions. The results are so good that people cannot believe that this is a high-risk investment. Stock investment.

Looking at the foreign fund market, people rarely pursue new companies or new products without performance records. New funds are often small in scale at the beginning of their establishment, known as seed funds. As their investment performance goes through 2- Over the past three years, it has gradually emerged that people gradually recognized its investment strategy and investment team, and the fund scale gradually became larger. For example, the scale of the Fidelity Magellan Fund managed by Peter Lynch increased after more than ten years (the average annual investment return rate is as high as 29%). , even surpassing Buffett’s investment performance during this period, it gradually rose from several hundred million US dollars to 14 billion US dollars.

In fact, judging from the overall situation in 2006 and 2007, the overall performance of old funds exceeded that of new funds. From this point of view, frequently subscribing for new funds and redeeming old funds may not be a successful investment strategy. From a comprehensive perspective such as returns and risks, the new fund has no obvious advantages.

In fact, it is very difficult to truly judge the net value growth potential of a new fund. Even professionals must be very cautious when making this judgment. Therefore, for most "new" funds, it is actually safest to stay on the sidelines until they have been operating for a while. There are always a few good funds, and investors need to be careful in distinguishing between them.

Of course, “new” funds are not without their advantages, otherwise the fund industry would not be able to develop. Judgment of fund products and appropriate timing are two key factors.

First, look at whether the "new" fund has substantial product innovation. The so-called substantive product innovation is to see whether fund products conform to the development trends of various financial markets and whether they have new risk-return characteristics. Looking forward to 2008 and 2009, as stock index futures and GEM are about to be launched, related fund product innovations may seize new market opportunities. This type of new fund products is worth looking forward to. In short, it depends on whether the product has substantial innovations that adapt to the market. This is another perspective to see whether the newly issued funds are truly "new" funds; otherwise, if the "new" funds are just some kind of "old" funds, What’s so new about a replica of a certain level?

Secondly, look at whether the "new" fund has new ideas in investment philosophy and whether it adapts to the current market conditions and trends. Facts have shown that investment concepts in China's stock market will rotate at certain stages. Implementing concept innovation at the right time may yield good results, which depends on the Xinfa Fund Company's judgment of the market. Typical examples include some funds launched at the end of 2003. Based on the judgment that the blue-chip concept of the large market may fall into stagflation in 2004, they focused on small and medium-cap and growth stocks, becoming the "dark horse" of the "new" fund performance in 2004. . A negative example is that purely quantitative investment strategies are not suitable for the current domestic stock market environment. The investment effects of funds using this strategy can be imagined.

Of course, the judgment of these aspects of "new" funds requires investors to have strong professional capabilities. Selecting funds from the perspective of predicting future performance is not easy, and choosing the right "new" fund is even more foggy. For ordinary investors, firstly, they can consult independent third-party professional fund researchers; secondly, when judgment is unclear, it is safer to invest in excellent “old” funds with proven performance stability and sustainability. choice.

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Teach you about funds

Can fund dividends be the basis for selecting funds?

Fund dividends are largely promotional behavior and should not affect investors' criteria for selecting funds.

The most important criteria for selecting a fund are still: the fund's risk-adjusted return or the level of the investment manager (long-term stable performance), the fund's investment goals and strategies, the fund manager's past performance, the company's management and service level, fees, etc. And whether it is suitable for you.

Does the higher the dividend payout, the higher the investment value?

Dividends from closed-end funds are a boon to corporate organizations because they are exempt from corporate income tax. But for individual investors, it doesn't mean much. Investors invest in closed-end funds not for dividends, but just like stock trading, they value the fund's ability to appreciate in order to earn higher capital gains (buy-sell spreads). For example, if the purchase price of a closed-end fund is 1.2 yuan and a dividend of 0.2 yuan is distributed, the market price of the fund will be reduced to 1 yuan. For investors, it is impossible to earn income from the dividends.

The value-added ability of closed-end funds is mainly reflected in the discount rate (the extent to which the market price is lower than the net value of the fund). Generally speaking, closed-end funds with high discount rates have relative investment advantages. Although in the short term, a large proportion of fund dividends may result in a high discount rate (the extent to which the market price is lower than the fund's net value), this is not a substantial discount rate. Therefore, experts generally do not recommend investors to invest in funds that pay large dividends. Instead, they recommend investing in funds with higher discount rates under excellent fund companies.

Will dividends put pressure on fund operations?

Of course there is pressure. Because passive pursuit of dividends can easily disrupt the fund's operation plan, excessive passive dividends that cater to investors one-sidedly may also harm the interests of investors. However, a good dividend plan is also conducive to a virtuous cycle of fund operation and can promote the stable growth of the fund's net value.

Is it worthwhile to pay fund dividends in a bull market?

The investment income of fund investors comes from two parts, one is capital gains (that is, the income from the bid-ask spread), and the other is dividend income. Fund dividends are to distribute part of the fund's investment profits first. After the dividends are distributed, the net value of the fund will decrease simultaneously with the amount of dividends. Therefore, for investors, dividends are only a change in form and not in quantity. If an investor has 20,000 yuan in fund assets after dividends, he will still have 17,500 yuan in fund assets, and another 2,500 yuan will be cashed out through dividends. In a bull market, the net value of the fund after dividends will rise again. At this time, the fund assets of 17,500 yuan held by investors will increase accordingly, and the 2,500 yuan that was originally settled will not be able to enjoy the benefits brought by the subsequent rise in the stock market. But if the fund does not pay dividends, the original 20,000 yuan of fund assets in the hands of investors can fully enjoy the benefits of the bull market. Specifically, it is better to choose investments based on whether the fund pays dividends than to focus on the long-term performance of the fund, especially in a bull market.

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Teach you how to choose a good fund?

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