Main recommendations
General Administration of Customs: China's foreign trade has grown for three consecutive months.
SARFT: Accelerate the development of high-definition ultra-high-definition video and 5G high-tech video.
Market review
Market Comments: The short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern, so it is advisable to flexibly control positions and reasonably grasp the opportunities for plate rotation.
Macro perspective: the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan.
Base Metals: From Liquidity Release to Demand Recovery
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 385.44, down 0.03%; Copper 57040, down 0.26%; Rebar 3925, up 2.91%; Rubber 14895, down 0.37%; The PVC index was 7770, up 2.71%; Zheng Chun 2268, up 0.80%; Shanghai Aluminum 15935, down 0.81%; Shanghai nickel 12 1 120, up 2.91%; Iron ore was 932.0, up 2.42%; Coke 2533.0, up 2.22%; Coking coal 1505.5, up by 0.90%; Brent oil was 48.60, down 0.57%; Ferrosilicon 6732, up 5.02%; Glass 1889, up by 3.56%; Short fiber 6248, up 3.41%; PTA 3744, up 3.14%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 7622, up 0.61%; Corn 2608, down 0.53%; Palm oil 6588, up1.01%; Zheng Mian 14635, up1.74%; Zhengmai 26 12, down 0.65%; Sugar 5025, up 0.12%; Apple 6735, down 0.40%; Jujube 9690, down 0.41%;
Exchange rate: EUR/USD 1.2 1, down 0.15%; USD/RMB 6.53, down 0.01%; USD/HK$ 7.75, up 0.0 1%.
Second, the key recommendation
1, General Administration of Customs: China's foreign trade increased for three consecutive months.
Event: General Administration of Customs: Before 1 1 month, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 29.04 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year. This is the third consecutive month of positive growth since the cumulative growth rate of foreign trade import and export turned positive for the first time in the year from June 5438 to September.
Comments: According to the published data, the export data in June 165438+ 10 exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2 1. 1%. This round of high export growth is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on overseas production capacity, and a large number of overseas orders have been transferred to China, showing the advantages of the domestic industrial chain and the strong resilience of the fundamentals. Under the background of upward fundamentals, the market has room for further deduction.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
2. SARFT: Accelerate the development of high-definition ultra-high-definition video and 5G high-tech video.
Event: The General Office of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television issued the Notice on Iterative Implementation Plan of Radio and Television Technology (2020-2022). The notice pointed out that in about three years, through the implementation of radio and television technology iteration, the new ecology of radio and television media will be reshaped and the new pattern of modern communication will be reconstructed. Accelerate the development of high-definition ultra-high-definition video and 5G high-tech video, promote the development of high-definition simulcast to high-definition, shorten the transition period of simulcast, and gradually close the standard-definition channel. Improve the standard system of 4K/8K ultra-high definition video technology and speed up the formulation of key technical standards.
Comments: With the acceleration of large-scale commercialization of 5G and the accelerated popularization of 5G mobile phones, ultra-high-definition video is expected to become the first application scenario of 5G. In addition, in order to promote the development of ultra-high definition video industry, the state and local governments have successively issued a series of policies to support the development of ultra-high definition video industry, which is expected to play a greater role in pulling the ultra-high definition video industry, and related companies are expected to continue to benefit. (investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Third, the market review
Market Comments: The short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern, so it is advisable to flexibly control positions and reasonably grasp the opportunities for plate rotation.
On Monday, major stock indexes showed a shock correction. The Shanghai Composite Index and small and medium-sized board opened slightly higher, while the Growth Enterprise Market opened lower. During the session, the military, coal, chips and liquor sectors changed, and the Growth Enterprise Market and small and medium-sized board once turned red. However, blue-chip stocks weakened as a whole, and the three major stock indexes closed green. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 34 16.6, down 0.81%; Small and medium-sized board closed at 9268.85, down 0.05%; Growth enterprise market closed at 2726.48, down 0. 16%. On the disk: aquatic products, tourism, polysilicon and other sectors led the gains; Anti-flu, banks, brokers and so on led the decline. The plate differentiation speculation is obvious. If there is no substantial positive stimulus in the short-term news, it is expected that the short-term market will remain volatile and positions should be controlled flexibly. In the volatile market, investors are advised to seize the opportunity of plate rotation, pay attention to the short-term rebound opportunity of technology stocks in the short term, and pay attention to pro-cyclical stocks and China manufacturing in the middle line. Sectors can be concerned about: non-ferrous, photovoltaic, new energy, optional consumption and other sectors. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)
Macro perspective: the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan.
Event: On the 7th, the website of the central bank announced that in order to keep liquidity in the banking system reasonably abundant, on February 7th, 2020, the People's Bank of China launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan by way of interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate remained unchanged at 2.20%. As of February 7, 65438, the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations for 15 consecutive working days.
Comments: As the MLF operation was carried out on the last day of June 165438+ 10, which broke the operation practice since this year, MLF was once again used as a base money delivery tool. Subsequent monetary policies will be more cautious in reducing RRR and cutting interest rates. The base currency will be more borne by reverse repurchase and MLF operation, and the irregular operation of MLF will gradually return. In the short term, the central bank will flexibly use various tools to regulate liquidity, which will make short-term liquidity more reasonable and abundant on the whole.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
Base Metals: From Liquidity Release to Demand Recovery
Basic metals: from liquidity release to demand recovery: the crisis caused by the epidemic and the change of monetary policy after the crisis will play a leading role in the fluctuation of metal prices in 2020. Year-to-date, CRU metal prices are almost the same as those during the 2008 financial crisis. With the further decline of the unemployment rate in the United States, it is less likely that the 2 1 liquidity will continue to expand. However, the price base of precious metals has risen from 1300 USD/oz to 1800 USD/oz. Demand will make the liquidity of connecting rod the most important factor to push the price of non-ferrous metals.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)