Technical analysis can explain technical analysis separately. Basic analysis and technical analysis are essentially statistical analysis. The process of data collection, screening, sorting, summarizing and extracting is the basic work of statistics, and technology is essentially a tool used in statistical work.
Give me ten thousand numbers to average. After I used paper and pencil to do the most primitive statistical work, the teacher gave me an abacus as a tool to teach me the abacus theory and let me know what the beads stand for and how to use the abacus. Calculate the average value of these 10,000 numbers with an abacus, and the abacus beads played a symbolic role in the era without computers. Similarly, it has now developed into an intelligent technology.
Take the moving average as an example. 5 Balanced moving average Today's value is the average of the closing price in the last five days, and yesterday's value is the average of the closing price from yesterday to the previous five days. As shown in the figure below, we input the closing price data of Zheng Mian's main contract into the EXCEL table, set the formula in C4 space, then immediately copy the daily value of the 5-balanced moving average, make a red line chart to become the 5-balanced moving average, and then analyze the meaning represented by the moving average.
Use Excel to make the values of two average lines A and B in different periods, simplify the values of the two average lines to a-b=c, and make the difference C into a histogram, which is called MACD.
Technology is actually data collation and summary in basic statistical work.
A friend said that he didn't use technical analysis, maybe he just didn't use technical theory to do data analysis, but he didn't realize that all market software was based on technical analysis when he used technology. K-line was originally invented by Japan's candle chart technology, which uses bar charts to represent the price, closing price and closing price. Coloring is technical data processing, and red is green and analysis. Buffett said that he had never used technical analysis. Because he has never seen a plate, I believe you have. When you see the red K line, you know that the price has increased, so you use technical analysis. You are using Japanese candle drawing technology, and you haven't realized it yet.
After the statistical data are summarized, the work is human analysis. We use microeconomics to analyze data is basic analysis, and technical analysis theory to analyze data is technical analysis. Economic theory is applicable, so what kind of data should be used for analysis?
If microeconomics is used to analyze the above average data, supply and demand cannot be found, which shows that microeconomics is not suitable for analyzing this data. The correct way is to use what kind of theory to analyze what kind of data, and to interpret and analyze the data facing the average line with the average line theory. If we don't study the average line theory and continue to analyze it with microeconomics, the analysis result will be incorrect. This is not allowed.
Second, three hypotheses of technical analysis
Like the three assumptions of microeconomics (clear market, complete rationality and complete information), technical analysis also has
1, market behavior contains and digests all information.
2. Market operation evolves with the trend.
3. History will repeat itself.
Market behavior contains and digests all information. Technical analysts believe that the factors (fundamental, political, macro, psychological or other aspects) that affect commodity prices are actually reflected in their prices. Therefore, what we must do is to study the price changes. We have no special channels and no inside information. In fact, we look at dishes every day, that is to say, we look at the price changes caused by various factors. When the market knows one or more bullish information, the price may have risen for some time. There is no airtight wall. There are always people who know the information through various methods and operate first, which will cause changes in commodity prices. In other words, market behavior contains and digests all the information, and all the information here is what you know and what you don't know. The price includes everything. Another meaning is that after filtering, it can reflect the real intention of the participants. For example, in the chat of 10 people, 8 people saw two people saw the sky, and finally they used real money. Maybe not, maybe everything is a lot, only real silver investment is the driving force to promote the market.
The operation of the market evolves with the trend. We all know that homeopathy is necessary. So the concept of trend is the core of technical analysis. Technical analysis is essentially to conform to the trend and judge and follow the existing trend. For the trend that has been formed, the next step is often to continue to develop along the existing trend, but the possibility of reversal is quite small. This is also the role of inertia. The current trend has continued until it is reversed.
History will repeat itself. History repeats itself from the perspective of big data analysis, not for a specific individual. The price pattern is expressed by graphs, which reflect people's views and psychology on a certain market. People's psychology is always easy to change their nature. The market repeatedly reflects people's psychology and displays regular graphics. History will repeat itself, but in a different way. We can find many similar experiences in the historical market. But don't expect to completely copy the market. Because people in the market and history are not a group. The assumption of historical recurrence also applies to basic analysis. For example, in the case of high prices in history, prices fell when supply exceeded demand. According to the basic analysis, this kind of history will repeat itself, so in the future analysis, if the high price exceeds the demand, the price will also fall.
Third, the defects of technical analysis
As the theoretical basis of technical analysis, all three hypotheses are flawed. The first is that market behavior contains and digests all information, and disk price contains and digests all market information. It seems reasonable, but it is one-sided. To be correct, it should be that the trading behavior that has happened contains and digests all the public information, and the disk price can display the on-site information that has been made public, but the off-site information that has not been made public cannot be displayed. For example, when we see that the 20,000 people who added positions in the morning rose by 100 yuan, we can judge that it is because we know or don't know the reason, but we don't know whether to add positions in the afternoon, because the market trading behavior in the morning has no intention to accommodate the funds that have not yet entered the market. Therefore, there are many cases of lightening positions in the afternoon.
The concept of trend is inseparable from the concept of time period. It is a false proposition that there is no time to talk about trends. The trend will eventually change. When the trend changes, it is easy to lead to tragic failure if we continue to judge the original trend subjectively. It is wrong to keep looking at the sky in the downward trend, even if it is a hundred times.
History repeats itself based on the unchanging human nature for many years, so the nature of the country is easy to change, so the law of ups and downs caused by crowd psychological factors is similar to history. Livermore said that there is nothing new on Wall Street. Humans are like Brownian motion of water molecules. It is impossible for a single water molecule to repeat history, but the collective motion of countless water molecules is regular, such as the formation of tides. The more people participate in market transactions, the better. The larger the market capacity, the more obvious the collective rules appear, and the fewer people participate (fiberboard and japonica rice)
Technology is a tool, and analysis depends on people. It is precisely because the assumptions of technical analysis have so many defects that technical analysis is often not allowed. This is not allowed.
We oppose the useless theory of technical analysis and the omnipotent theory of technical analysis. Learning technical analysis should not only learn the applicability of technical analysis, but also learn when to use and when not to use a certain technology. We shouldn't look at the golden fork according to the textbook. It is necessary to study how the main funds use technical analysis, and whether the breakthrough is a real breakthrough or a fake breakthrough.
Four. Scope of technical analysis
Technical analysis can be divided into three categories: technical analysis theory, technical index and pricing analysis.
The well-known technical analysis theories include Japanese candle diagram, wave theory, Dow theory, Gann theory, moving average theory, K-line theory, Gann theory and entanglement theory. The application of China Zhouyi and western astrology to the futures market is a technical analysis theory.
There are thousands of technical indicators, which are divided into trend analysis indicators (moving average, bollinger band, etc.). ), swing analysis indicators (MACD, RSI, KDJ, etc.). ), price analysis indicators (transaction volume, warehouse volume, etc.). ) and self-compiled indicators.
Price analysis mainly analyzes the significance of volume and position, which is the theoretical basis of technical analysis.
Five, the difficulty of technical analysis learning
The law of 10,000 hours is a law pointed out by writer Gladwell in his book Alien. In people's eyes, genius is excellent, not outstanding talent, but continuous efforts. 10000 hours of exercise is a necessary condition for everyone to become a master from ordinary. In other words, to become an expert in a certain field, you need at least 65,438+00,000 hours to study hard, which is 8 hours a day in proportion. It takes at least three years to become an expert in a certain field. This is closely related to the saying that three years is a disciple. The expression of foreigners is a bit exaggerated. In fact, in any industry, learning from 0 10000 hours is considered as an apprentice, but 10000 hours is a quantitative change that must be accumulated before qualitative change.
Technical analysis and basic analysis are in the same dimension. We need to graduate from the University of Finance and Economics for four years to become apprentices, and so does technical analysis. The securities and futures experts of the North Institute are also apprentices for four years, and they are far from stable interest after graduation. Mr. Kobayashi graduated from here. He started to make money in futures in 2002, and made a loss in less than half a year. After that, he went through it four times. The real stable interest is after 2008. People always publicize the legendary story that he earned $2 billion with $6 million based on firm fundamental analysis on 20 10, but few people pay attention to what he earned $6 million with $28,000. It is impossible to accumulate from $28,000 to $6 million in a short time without the strict technique of repeating four bursts of training in six years. Four years in college, four explosions in six years, it takes 10 years from zero to the level of stable interests. You should graduate from school for ten years. You are still a doctor in actual combat. You don't mean playing with your sword for ten years. He is an expert in futures, and he makes a steady profit after 10 years. Isn't he a futures expert?
Finance and economics universities have at least 40 compulsory courses, plus at least 50 or 60 elective courses. One book per course, at least 50 books to graduate. How many books do you need to read from graduate students to doctors? That is to say, in the technical analysis of self-study, students who don't read more than 50 books can't be counted, which is further away from stable interest. Going to college is guided by teachers, and self-study depends on your own understanding. People who have jobs can't delay their normal work. They can only study in their spare time and have no time to influence family relations with their families in their spare time. Moreover, reading books is not enough. They need practical training, which comes again and again, about 10 years. Again and again, again and again, again and again. Therefore, if the goal is to stabilize the interests, it is suggested that technical schools should be fully prepared and it is best to go to industry. As long as we can persist, we can achieve the degree of systematization of technical analysis.
Systematization of technical analysis of intransitive verbs
Learning technical analysis can be compared with learning mathematics, which is easy to understand. It is twelve years from the first grade of primary school to the college entrance examination. After all, the college entrance examination is a comprehensive application of these twelve years. In the past 12 years, we have studied 24 textbooks, such as arithmetic, algebra, solid geometry, analytic geometry, function and so on. If we study less, we won't get high marks. The application of technical analysis in the futures market is just like the college entrance examination. It is a comprehensive application of various technical analysis theories, each of which has its own defects. Simply using a certain technology is always flawed. It is necessary to use a vibrating thinking to connect many technologies such as structure, shape, measurement ability, index and period, and comprehensively apply them to learn from each other's strengths. A complete system chain without learning wave theory is like not learning solid geometry, not learning Dow theory is like not learning analytic geometry, and not learning technical indicators is like not learning. I only learned one or two skills, especially a few indicators. The technical analysis is not systematic and the analysis results are often inaccurate. These are three not allowed.