-Heshui Zuo's "Four Musts, Singing Cotton"

Western tourists, clothes are from China.

(Origin, Introduction and Development of Cotton)

Cotton, an inseparable friend, cotton-padded clothes, cotton shoes, cotton-padded jackets, cotton gloves, different brands and styles in different years are warm memories and countless warmth. Although China has a long history of cotton textile, cotton is not native to China, but an old friend from afar. It originated in Arabia and India.

China ancient local textile raw materials, mainly kudzu vine, hemp, silk, wool. The most common cold-proof material is silk wool, which is divided into high-grade and low-grade High-grade silk floss, also called "silk floss"; Low-end products are scraps called "_". "_" is mainly used to make cotton gowns. That's what the sentence in the Book of Songs says, "No clothes, no robes, no children".

For the poor, it is a luxury to wear "striped" robes. They basically wear "_" robes. The robe filled with "_" has poor cold-proof effect, and many celebrities do a hard job for it when they are frustrated. For example, Ceng Zi, a famous soldier in the Warring States, wore a "_" robe when he was frustrated, and his elbows were stretched straight when he rolled up his sleeves in winter, thus contributing an idiom: drought!

When was cotton introduced into China? According to historical records, during the Warring States Period, many tribes in the Nanhai area of China came to pay tribute to cotton.

The earliest undisputed record of cotton introduction in China should be the Book of the Later Han Dynasty during the reign of Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty. At that time, the Zhu Ya area of Hainan Island presented cotton cloth to Emperor Wu of Han Dynasty. This also shows that cotton had been introduced to Hainan Island at that time, and even cotton technology was available. In the Han Dynasty, not only Hainan Island, but also tribes in Ailao and Yongchang of Yunnan Province planted cotton on a large scale. At that time, cotton was called "_ Hua". There is a famous saying in "Shu Du Fu" by Zuo Si, a writer in the Western Jin Dynasty: "Cloth has _ China".

Although the cotton industry in Xinjiang started later than that in Hainan and Yunnan, it developed rapidly. During the Southern and Northern Dynasties in China, Gao Changguo in Turpan has been prosperous to this day.

During the Tang Dynasty, the cotton industry in China developed rapidly. Since the mid-Tang Dynasty, with the economic center moving southward, cotton planting crossed the frontier and began to spread in China. Of course, it is mainly planted in the south, especially in Fujian and Guangdong. At that time, cotton cloth also had a name: South Goods!

At the end of the Southern Song Dynasty, a child bride from a poor family in Shanghai hid in a boat and escaped from marriage, and was dragged to Hainan Island in a daze. This unexpected escape made a milestone in China's cotton history: Huang Daopo. This clever woman combines the advanced cotton spinning technology of Li nationality with the advanced technology of Hainan Han nationality. Thirty years later, Ye returned to his hometown in Shanghai, bringing back cotton spinning technology and a new cotton spinning car. The cotton spinning car she developed was more than 500 years earlier than the British, which made China's cotton spinning industry advance by leaps and bounds! Shanghai has become the cotton spinning center of China. At that time, there was a saying spread all over the world: Songjiang cotton cloth, clothes and quilts, all over the world!

Zhu Yuanzhang, the Ming emperor, solved the last problem of cotton: the output problem. At the beginning of the Ming Dynasty, the national policy was: national farmers whose land was below 10 mu had to plant half an acre of cotton; More than ten acres of land should be doubled; If you plant more, you will get a prize, and if you harvest well, you will be tax-free. If you don't plant it, you will be exiled to prison. In his original words: "Ten years have passed, and there are fewer poor people in our country!" At the end of Zhu Yuanzhang's reign, Henan, Hebei, Shanxi and Shandong were all important cotton producing areas. Since then, cotton textiles have entered thousands of households with good quality and low price. Since the mid-Ming Dynasty, cotton has become a foreign brand in China. At the end of the Ming Dynasty, more than 10,000 cotton were exported to one area of the Philippines every year. Southeast Asians also have a new name for the ancient Maritime Silk Road: Mianhua Road.

Warm and harmonious.

(Types of cotton)

(1) According to the fiber length and thickness, cotton can be roughly divided into three categories.

1. Coarse cotton: mainly refers to Asian cotton and African cotton. Asian cotton is native to India, and African cotton is native to Africa and Arabia. Coarse wool cotton is the main cotton variety planted in ancient China. Because of its low output and short fiber, it is not suitable for weaving and has been eliminated.

The second kind is fine wool cotton: mainly refers to upland cotton, which is native to Central America, so it is also called American upland cotton. Its characteristics are wide adaptability, high yield, long fiber and good quality. At present, most of the mainstream cotton planted in the world belongs to this category, and the subject matter of the world's major cotton futures is also this variety.

Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange 1 cotton futures contract is shown in the following table.

Table 1 Cotton Futures Contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange

3. Long-staple cotton: mainly refers to island cotton, which is native to South America. It is characterized by long fiber and high strength, and is suitable for spinning high count yarn. The fine and long fibers are of good quality and are mainly used for weaving fine and excellent cotton yarns. At present, the main long-staple cotton in the world are Pima cotton, Egyptian cotton and Sudan cotton.

(2) classify cotton according to the primary processing methods.

Cotton can be classified into white cotton, yellow cotton, gray cotton and colored cotton according to color, mainly for seed cotton. Picked seed cotton can not be directly processed by textile, and it becomes lint after preliminary processing to remove cottonseed. According to the different primary processing methods, cotton can be divided into serrated cotton and leather roller cotton.

First, serrated cotton: the lint processed by serrated ginning is called serrated cotton. Sawtooth cotton contains less impurities, short fiber, neat fiber length and high yield. However, the fiber length is short and the mill has many defects. Most fine wool cotton uses serrated ginning.

Second, leather roller cotton: the lint processed by leather roller cotton machine is called leather roller cotton. Leather roller cotton contains impurities, short fibers, poor fiber length uniformity, low yield and yellow roots. However, the operation of fiber length is small and there are few defects in the mill. Leather roller cotton is suitable for long staple cotton and low-grade cotton.

Flowers bloom everywhere, and Tianshan Mountain is unique.

(Planting distribution of cotton)

China is divided into three major cotton areas: Yangtze River, Yellow River and Xinjiang.

Cotton-producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin: including Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Jiangxi and Hunan, used to be the main cotton-producing areas in China, but in recent years, the planting area and output have declined rapidly, leaving only a small amount of cotton.

Cotton region in the Yellow River valley: including Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, was once the main cotton producing area in China, but in recent years, the planting area and output have also decreased rapidly, leaving only a small amount of cotton.

Xinjiang Cotton Region: Including Xinjiang and Hexi Corridor, the planting area has increased steadily. Xinjiang cotton is famous for its long fiber, white color and strong tensile force, and it is the most promising cotton region in China. Xinjiang is rich in water, soil, light and heat resources, with dry climate and little rain, and the conditions for planting cotton are unique. In recent years, cotton planting area and output have increased rapidly, and it has become the absolute main cotton producing area in China.

In addition to the three major producing areas, there are also sporadic cultivation in Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places, but their total output accounts for less than 1% of the total cotton output in China (see the table below).

China Cotton Yield Distribution Table (Unit:%)

Source: Statistical Yearbook of China.

A drop of sweat in spring is a flower in autumn.

(Growth cycle of cotton)

Cotton mainly has the following growth cycles.

(1) sowing date

The emergence of seedlings after sowing needs certain external influencing conditions, mainly suitable temperature, moisture, oxygen, soil and so on. And the decisive factor is temperature. Cotton is a thermophilic crop, so it needs higher temperature to germinate and emerge.

Under natural ground temperature, cotton planting in the Yellow River basin is generally in mid-April; If the previous crop is timely, the cotton area in the Yangtze River basin can be sown in early April. Cotton planting in Xinjiang is generally carried out on April1May-25th.

After cotton is sown, the date of emergence mainly depends on the temperature and humidity of the soil at this time. Under normal circumstances, cotton needs 10- 15 days in the Yellow River basin, 7- 10 days in the Yangtze River basin and 15 days in Xinjiang.

(2) Seedling stage

Seedling stage refers to cotton from emergence to budding. Generally, the cotton areas in the Yellow River basin are from the end of April to the beginning of May to the middle of June, and those in the Yangtze River basin are from the end of April to the beginning of June. Cotton seedling stage is a vegetative growth period, and the main environmental factor affecting cotton seedling stage is temperature.

In addition to temperature, if it rains continuously during this period, there will be too much water and insufficient light, which will also cause cotton seedlings to escape light, form tall and thin seedlings, delay the growth period, and even seriously affect the root development, forming rotten seeds, rotten buds and seedling diseases.

(3) Germination stage

The bud stage of cotton refers to the period from budding to flowering. Generally from mid-June to early July. The growth level of cotton in bud stage directly affects the disaster resistance and final economic output in the middle and late stage.

Because cotton buds appear in the first half of June, the temperature is relatively high, and the rainfall at this time is the key factor to determine the number of buds. Drought or high temperature during this period will seriously affect cotton growth.

(4) flowering and boll setting period

Flowering and bolling period refers to the period from flowering to boll opening, generally from early July to the end of August and early September. In the process of yield formation, flowering and boll stage is the key period to determine yield and quality. This stage is divided into early flowering stage and big boll stage according to its growth characteristics. The flowering and bolling period is the period when cotton needs water most in its life. Cotton is sensitive to water. If the water is out of balance and the metabolic process is blocked, it will lead to a large number of buds falling off and premature aging, which will seriously affect the growth process of cotton.

(5) Flocculation period

Flocculation period refers to a long period from whipping to the arrival of dry frost and the end of growth. Generally, it begins to boll at the end of August and the beginning of September, and lasts for 70 ~ 80 days, which is the main stage of cotton fiber growth and development. The main factors affecting cotton yield and quality in this period are: continuous rainy weather aggravated boll rot, autumn cold made cotton greedy for green and late ripening, and fiber development was poor.

After three days of sight, cotton is no longer a flower.

(Processing and downstream consumption of cotton)

Playing cotton is an old craft, and it is rare in cities now. The strings rang, the flowers flew, and finally, a pile of cotton was pressed into a neat quilt, as if it were a kind of magic, which surprised the children. At that time, cotton-playing craftsmen also walked the streets and lanes, and their business was overwhelmed. "Sandalwood hammer, Chinese fir tip; The golden rooster announces the dawn and the snowflake flutters ",which is an interpretation of the craftsmanship of the cotton-playing craftsmen and the most vivid metaphor for people's labor." "Playing cotton technology also has a lot to do with Huang Daopo.

Modern cotton processing is divided into several steps, such as ginning, spinning, grey cloth, printing and dyeing, clothing and so on. In this process, the direct downstream product of cotton is cotton yarn.

In recent ten years, domestic cotton demand has been sluggish. After 20 10, domestic cotton demand is at a lower level than before, with obvious fluctuation and weak growth. The main reason is the weak internal and external demand of downstream textiles and garments, and the emergence of synthetic fiber substitution.

On the whole, the poor domestic sales and export performance of domestic textiles and garments put pressure on the downstream demand of cotton. In terms of domestic demand, from 20 1 1, the rapid growth trend of China's textile and garment retail sales reversed, and the annual growth rate dropped significantly year by year, from 20 1 1% to 0.36% of 20 17; Since 20 18, the retail sales of clothing has been in negative growth, and the cumulative growth rate for the whole year is about -6%.

In terms of external demand, the export growth rate of textile yarns, fabrics, products and clothing began to slow down from 20 10, and the growth rates of 20 15 and 20 16 were negative. On the one hand, the sluggish export demand is related to the slowdown of global economic growth; On the other hand, due to the migration of textile and garment industries to Southeast Asian countries with more advantages in labor and land, the rise of textile and garment industries such as Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia has caused export substitution.

In China's textile production, chemical fiber (including man-made fiber and synthetic fiber) is the main substitute product of cotton, among which polyester staple fiber (synthetic fiber) and viscose staple fiber (man-made fiber) are the main textile raw materials, which are collectively called cotton, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber. Cotton and polyester staple fiber are the main raw materials of cotton yarn, while viscose staple fiber is processed from cotton pulp and wood pulp, which has better dyeability, hygroscopicity and comfort compared with cotton. These advantages make viscose staple fiber replace cotton more and more strongly in recent years. After the implementation of 20 1 1 cotton temporary storage system, the price of cotton remained high, which made the substitution effect of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber gradually obvious.

Cotton is hard, pure but not simple.

(Influencing factors of cotton price)

China's cotton industry has the characteristics of high output, large consumption, large import volume, high commodity rate and active market participation, and the cotton price fluctuates greatly. Zheng Mian futures prices are sensitive to the above factors, highly correlated with spot prices, with large fluctuations and frequent fluctuations, and strong linkage with the international market.

From 20 10 to 20 1 1, the cotton market at home and abroad is huge. From the end of August, 2065438+00 to the first half of 10, cotton prices rose by spurt, in which commodity attributes and speculation dominated. The domestic cotton production reduction is expected to be strong, and at the same time, the weather factors make the cotton quality deviation in the new year, and it is hard to find high-quality cotton at a high price; The high-profile recovery of domestic textile and garment exports has caused the shortage of cotton in the transition period between the old and new years, and the long-term risk of 09 contract has been "forced". In terms of spot, the purchase price of new cotton is high and the market is hot. Speculative funds are continuously injected into futures and spot markets. The combined forces of various factors supported the accelerated upward movement of cotton futures, which reached a historical high of 33,600 yuan/ton in the middle of 20 1 10, with an increase of 90% in just two months, becoming the most concerned variety at this stage. 1After the middle of October, cotton prices returned to "rationality". Among them, the macro background performance: the international European debt crisis has revived, and financial speculation confidence has been greatly suppressed; Domestic CPI rose by more than 4%, hidden inflation completely surfaced, and monetary tightening policies such as raising the bank deposit reserve ratio and raising interest rates were introduced one after another. The government frequently regulates the prices of agricultural products, and cotton, corn and oil have become the key "concerned" varieties. Cotton bears the brunt, and all links in the industrial chain are strictly controlled. Cotton futures prices fell rapidly, but due to the high purchase price, 24,000 yuan became the key cost support level, and cotton prices stopped falling, showing a consolidation pattern. The main contract1/kloc-0 closed at 28,365 yuan/ton at the end of 2009, and the Zheng Mian index closed at 28,062 yuan/ton at the end of 2009, with an annual increase of 68.24%, ranking first in the domestic commodity futures market. 20 1 1 February (before the Lunar New Year), cotton prices hit a record high with a rapid trend. After the year, it turned around and fell all the way, and it didn't stop falling until September, with a drop of more than 40%. The contradiction between supply and demand caused by capital speculation makes the cotton price seriously divorced from the actual value. Textile industry and terminal consumption can't bear such high cost, and cotton price finally returns to its true value. 20 1 1, the global economy is in a downward trend, and people's willingness to consume clothing is declining. At the same time, the trend of American cotton is similar to that of Zheng Mian, but its influence on Zheng Mian is weakened, with a drop of 50% during this period (see the figure below).

Comparison chart of cotton futures prices at home and abroad

The amount of cotton available for futures delivery is large (about 80%), and the delivery cost is relatively low. Therefore, the cotton futures price has the characteristics of high correlation, high rationality and strong predictability with the spot price.

The characteristics of long cotton industrial chain, many kinds of participants and large foreign trade volume all determine many factors that affect cotton price: weather change, growth, supply-demand relationship, national guiding information on cotton price forecast, financial policy, national reserve policy, import and export policy, textile industry development, sowing expectation (according to the reserved area forecast of 10 wheat sowing) and so on. All these provide a theme for the fluctuation of cotton futures prices and also provide many investment opportunities.

Spot enterprises, institutional investors and small and medium-sized investors suitable for cotton futures hedging participate. From the trend of cotton price since September 1999, cotton price fluctuates frequently and violently, which is suitable for hedgers to use the futures market to avoid risks. At the same time, cotton price has the characteristics of strong trend and high predictability, which is especially suitable for institutional investors to speculate for a long time. Institutional investors can get a higher return on investment at a relatively low cost by collecting cotton supply and demand information. There are many factors that affect cotton futures prices, which are sensitive to fundamental factors, fluctuate frequently and have more investment opportunities, which is very suitable for small and medium-sized investors to carry out short-term technical operations.