In the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the sowing date of wheat starts from the first half of 10 and lasts until the last half of 10. For fertilizer distributors, September is the peak season for fertilizer preparation. For farmers, large households buy fertilizer earlier and will prepare fertilizer in September. For small farmers, they usually buy fertilizer a few days in advance.
The current time is mid-September, which is close to wheat sowing. Has the price of chemical fertilizer gone up or down? What is the cost of an acre of land? Will it go up or down in the future? In this article, the little helper will talk about these questions in detail, and everyone will have answers after reading them.
Urea prices rebounded.
During August, the overall price of urea showed a downward trend, with some areas as low as 2 1 1,000-2,200 yuan/ton. After entering September, with the increase of autumn fertilizer preparation, the price of urea stopped falling and turned up. According to the latest quotations from many places, the ex-factory price is mostly concentrated at 2400-2600 yuan/ton.
The rise of urea is influenced by many reasons in the market. In terms of cost, the increase of coal price in the market increases the production cost of urea and drives the price of urea to rebound.
From the demand side, on the one hand, the domestic market demand entered the peak season, the amount of fertilizer used in autumn was large, and the early inventory of urea was limited, which boosted the market.
On the other hand, from an international point of view, India's bid price has stimulated market information. According to the bidding results released on September 9th, the lowest price on the east coast is 675.25 USD/ton CFR, which is converted into the domestic provincial prices, which are about 4,260 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4,265,438 yuan +00 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 4,300 yuan/ton in Hebei and domestic ex-factory prices.
This is also a reason for urea rebound.
According to Wang's knowledge, the reference price of urea in some areas is as follows (small and medium particles): 2490-2520 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2520-2560 yuan/ton in Henan, 2500-2540 yuan/ton in Hebei, 2520-2550 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 2550-2580 yuan/ton in Anhui.
The price of compound fertilizer has also gone up
After entering September, the dealers' enthusiasm for preparing fertilizer increased. Although the price was at a high level at that time, it was obviously too late to prepare fertilizer when it was sold.
First, the prices of urea, monoammonium, diammonium, potassium chloride and potassium sulfate. There are different degrees of increase, which directly leads to the increase in the price of compound fertilizer. With the increase of raw material cost, the price of compound fertilizer can't come down.
Secondly, from the perspective of market supply, due to the high cost and price some time ago, it is impossible to produce inventory in large quantities from the perspective of production enterprises. For dealers, the price of compound fertilizer is too high to purchase in large quantities. Compared with previous years, the biggest change in these two years is the reduction of inventory.
If you choose to stock up at a high price, on the one hand, the cost and capital demand are large, on the other hand, it is unrealistic to sell at a loss after the subsequent price falls, and no one buys at a high price.
Therefore, whether it is a manufacturer or a distributor, the stock in the early stage is average.
With the critical period of fertilizer preparation in September, demand increased and prices rose.
Thirdly, for manufacturers, they bought some high-priced raw materials in the early stage of stocking, so the price of compound fertilizer produced by these raw materials will not be too low, and manufacturers will not do business at a loss. Only after these high-priced raw materials are produced will they buy relatively cheap raw materials again, and the price of compound fertilizer will drop accordingly.
For dealers, it is impossible to buy compound fertilizer at a high price and sell it to farmers at a low price, so farmers feel that the price of compound fertilizer has increased.
As far as Wang knows, the reference prices of some manufacturers of compound fertilizer are as follows: 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer is 3300-3600 yuan/ton, and 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer is 3000-3400 yuan/ton.
The mainstream ex-factory price of 45% chlorine-based high-nitrogen wheat fertilizer (25- 14-6 or 25- 13-7) is about 3200-3350 yuan/ton.
When will the price of chemical fertilizer increase?
It's time to sow wheat. The price of compound fertilizer has gone up. When wheat was sown, the price of compound fertilizer fell again.
This is where many farmers complain. Judging from the actual situation, it belongs to the relationship between supply and demand in the market. When market demand increases, commodity prices rise, and when market demand decreases, commodity prices fall.
There were no particularly serious accidents, and this trend is expected to continue this year.
Whether it is urea or compound fertilizer, or phosphate fertilizer or potash fertilizer, it is expected that the price will rise by -65438+ 10 in September. After entering 165438+ 10, wheat is also planted, and the price should drop without fertilization.
What do you think of this?