Embracing electrification does not mean bowing your head. With electrification blessing, the internal combustion engine can obtain longer vitality. Market rules, the best cost, how much is the ancient love worth?
A long time ago, there was an article "The Death of Internal Combustion Engine", which had some merits, but the title was a little sensational.
Internal combustion engine, actually, is not easy. I have worked hard for human travel for more than one hundred years, and I will be sealed by the world. Never say goodbye?
Some scholars believe that we are entering the "power 2.0 era", and power types will coexist in many ways and prosper for a long time.
What is the opposite of an internal combustion engine? Let's call it "new energy". In the long run, the relationship between internal combustion engine and new energy may be an alternative relationship, but in a limited era, it will be a long-term coexistence relationship.
Although the internal combustion engine will not live forever, it will not die.
In order to see "the birth of internal combustion engine", we summarized seven arguments.
1.？ New energy has been divided into stages, winners.
Hydrogen has great potential to dominate the future, but it is still in the distant future and is still groping before dawn. Due to the limited resources, it faces the risk of being shelved.
From the point of view that major car companies around the world (especially Toyota and Volkswagen) have successively strengthened the electrification strategy, the technical route of pure electric is being fully recognized.
In fact, we should not ignore that electrification is not the same as electrification, nor is it simply electrification.
If hybrid vehicles can be classified as electrification, it is impossible for electric vehicles to completely devour the market share of fuel vehicles in the next decade. On the contrary, it is possible for fuel vehicles to evolve themselves and completely transition to a new era of "internal combustion engine+electrification".
2.？ Why is the whole world a "Ran Ran star of electric vehicles, and fuel vehicles are dying out"?
All the premises are that electric vehicles finally have the product strength of "meeting the needs of daily vehicles" and have some unique product advantages. Otherwise, nothing is possible.
In the last five years, electric vehicles are in a period of rising violence, with hot money focused and public opinion spoiling. Have you noticed that Weilai and Ideality have been listed on NASDAQ, and Tesla has become the car manufacturing company with the highest market value?
But we still have to see the facts clearly. The proportion of electric vehicles in the automobile market is still relatively low. Taking China automobile market in 20 19 as an example, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is 106 10000, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles is 855000, the total number of new vehicles in the automobile market is 2 1 10200, and the ratio of new energy vehicles to fuel vehicles is 5: 0.
If an electric car wants to knock down a fuel car in sales, it will take more than ten years for a three-year-old boy to leave an adult on his shoulder.
Electric vehicles are futures, above the clouds, and this is the right way for investors. They are chasing potential stocks, and falling fuel vehicles are not considered in the scope of hot money.
However, it happened that it was fuel vehicles that dominated the market absolutely, and most of what consumers could buy were fuel vehicles. Capital is betting on the future of electric vehicles, which is growing exponentially.
3.？ The in-depth research and development of internal combustion engine has entered a "bottleneck period".
The most fundamental reason is that the internal combustion engine is quite mature, and further research will lead to high cost, low return and thankless output.
As a direct result, the development of internal combustion engines seems to have stalled. At present, we can see the sound of internal combustion engine technology, focusing on Japanese and Korean brands, such as CVVD continuous variable valve technology of Hyundai Kia Group and gasoline compression ignition engine of Mazda.
Domestic independent brands have also continued to exert their strength this year, and various car companies have launched independent research and development motives with thermal efficiency exceeding 38%, including Great Wall, BYD and FAW Pentium. Although the international leading thermal efficiency has exceeded 40%, even reached 50%, but as a rising star, the speed of catching up has been considerable.
However, many global car companies have invested more resources in electrification. Luxury brands are threatened by Tesla's sales list. Volkswagen bet on MEB platform, Toyota is no longer obsessed with hybrid technology, and has fully entered pure electric. Even some ultra-luxury brands put electrification on the agenda of new products.
4.？ When the internal combustion engine is electrified, some problems are solved.
There are two shackles around the neck of internal combustion engine: energy saving and emission reduction.
The birth of internal combustion engine must untie these two shackles, and the key is simple: "obey the law."
Saving energy means reducing fuel consumption. Our "double integral" policy comes from this. However, all car companies are well aware that it is not only difficult to meet the standards, but also the input cost is very high just by working hard on the internal combustion engine and optimizing the technology.
Then hug the motor. The introduction of electrification, even if it is only a 48V light mixing system, will also have great gains in reducing fuel consumption. Moreover, Toyota and Honda have also proved that the hybrid system of "internal combustion engine+motor" can really reduce fuel consumption with years of practical results.
From the physical principle, it also explains that the internal combustion engine faces many working conditions, some of which save fuel and some of which waste fuel.
When the internal combustion engine is started, it is necessary to increase the fuel injection concentration, which is the fuel consumption at this time. With one foot throttle, the vehicle accelerates rapidly, and the internal combustion engine shifts gears, more fuel injection is also needed to quickly obtain power explosion.
These are not efficient working conditions of the internal combustion engine, but with the help of the auxiliary function of "peak cutting and valley filling" of the motor, try to make the internal combustion engine work in the efficient range, and the fuel consumption will be reduced.
Therefore, this year's "double points" policy adjustment specifically mentioned "low fuel consumption passenger cars", which is equivalent to encouraging car companies to develop products that meet bicycle fuel consumption standards.
Internal combustion engine+electrification is probably the most cost-effective feasible scheme.
5.？ The issue of emissions is controversial. Are electric cars really environmentally friendly?
Another shackle of internal combustion engine is "emission reduction". Last year's bicycle circle incident, the country V changed to the country VI, which involved the emission problem, and many car companies crossed the border.
The difficulty of "emission reduction" is slightly lower, and the main means is to install aftertreatment devices for internal combustion engines, which is relatively easy to meet the standards.
Electric vehicles have no tail gas, which seems to have zero emissions and zero pollution, but accurately speaking, this is zero emissions and zero pollution at the bicycle level. But electric cars need electricity, so the cleanliness of electricity is very important.
There is still no particularly authoritative measurement in the industry. How high is the energy efficiency from "power plant power generation" to "electric vehicle driving wheel" and how much is the pollutant emission? But the basic cognition is that the environmental protection of electric vehicles cannot be guaranteed, because a large proportion depends on thermal power generation. Mazda, the "father of creating the blue sky" that was hotly debated in the industry a few years ago, read a few pages of photovoltaic hanging electric vehicles, and the basic theory is also here.
However, another view is that electric vehicles transfer bicycle pollution to centralized pollution, and the advantage of centralized pollution is that it can be treated centrally, which may be a turning point in the environmental protection of electric vehicles.
6.？ Technical evolution direction of internal combustion engine: high efficiency under electrification.
If we can continue to improve the thermal efficiency of the internal combustion engine, this is of course the most direct choice. But the difficulty is that there is an upper limit on thermal efficiency, and the higher it is, the higher the cost is.
Considering the cost and technical feasibility, the internal combustion engine+electrification will become the mainstream choice, and the internal combustion engine will also be changed in a targeted manner to match electrification.
Miniaturization of internal combustion engine has become a new trend, because with the assistance of motor, the same performance can be obtained without large displacement.
But there is a problem of acceptance, which is more obvious in luxury brands. The first impression of "large displacement = luxury" will be shredded. For example, Mercedes-Benz E-Class uses a light mixing system of 1.5T+48V, and Tucao's team is outside the south gate.
In the past, the design of internal combustion engine should consider all working points, so after electrification, only a few efficient working points need to be optimized, so that the internal combustion engine may be redesigned, and a new fuel supply structure, a new combustion cycle and a new working condition calibration appear.
It can be boldly imagined that in the next decade, there will be fewer and fewer vehicles driven by pure internal combustion engines and more and more vehicles with hybrid power systems. The evolution route may be from HEV to PHEV, then to REV (Extended Program), and finally to pure electric.
There may be two problems:
First, will the enhanced system be taken seriously by the industry? The outlook is uncertain. At present, Li and Nissan e-Power are the major automobile companies that insist on extending the plan.
As far as the structural principle is concerned, the internal combustion engine is only responsible for "generating electricity" at the efficient working point, which should be the most efficient in theory. However, over the years, few car companies have been deeply involved in the extended range system, and they also lack the "efficiency" from every detail, which leads to the system being extremely fuel-efficient in principle, but more fuel-efficient in actual operation.
Second, can you quickly cross the transition period where the hybrid system is located and go straight to the electric vehicle? There is such a trend at present. Take Volkswagen and Toyota for example, the research and development focus in the next few years will be on electric vehicles, and this highland must be contested.
But the biggest difficulty is that the electric vehicle market needs to be cultivated slowly, and it is opening up, but it has not been fully opened.
After the subsidy drops, the market is adapting to the new era;
A few years ago, the lush new car-making movement was coming to an end, and those who could not get ashore would be drowned;
Tesla tells consumers what a real electric car should look like;
After more than ten years of development, the infrastructure around electric vehicles is also very rich. The purchase and use of electric vehicles have cognitive basis and consumption basis.
For these "post-licensing" joint venture electric vehicles, it may not be a good time. The cognitive dividends of electric vehicles laid by Tesla, new forces and independent brands may be harvested by joint venture brands with strong brands and strong channels.
The annual sales volume of electric vehicles is only 1/20 of that of fuel vehicles, which is far from enough. When all brands are concentrated on electric vehicles, this market may expand rapidly, which depends on both the products and the real will of the market.
7.？ Consumers don't care about industry trends, but only care about the cost and benefits of buying a car.
So we must give up the illusion that consumers are never willing to pay for technology research and development.
For example, a car company invested a lot of money in the power system in order to pass the "double points" or the national V to the national VI, and finally wanted to pass it on to consumers and directly increase the price.
Consumers will ask, what do I get for spending more money? Just to help you cross the assessment indicators? Am I your shareholder? Can I get a dividend at the end of the year?
After all, how technology should evolve is still an economic account. No matter how strong the technology is, the cost is too high, and it is also in vain. Whether the internal combustion engine is alive or dead depends on whether there is a route with appropriate cost to survive.
The market does not believe in tears, let alone feelings.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.