(A) the supply of soybean oil
1. Soybean supply
As a downstream product of soybean processing, the supply of soybean directly determines the supply of soybean oil. In general, the increase of soybean supply will inevitably lead to the increase of soybean oil supply. There are two main sources of soybean, one is domestic soybean and the other is imported soybean.
(1) Domestic soybean supply
Northeast China and Huanghuai area are the main soybean producing areas, and the harvest season is usually from September to 65438+ 10 every year, and the months after harvest are the concentrated period of soybean supply. In recent years, China's soybean output has been maintained at about160,000 tons, of which nearly half is used for crushing.
(2) the international market supply situation
In recent years, the global annual soybean output has exceeded 200 million tons, and China is the largest soybean importer in the world, with an annual import of more than 40 million tons since 2008/09.
2. Soybean oil production
The current output of soybean oil is a variable, which is subject to factors such as soybean supply, expected annualized income of soybean crushing, production cost and so on. Generally speaking, when other factors remain unchanged, there is an obvious inverse relationship between the output and price of soybean oil. Soybean oil production increased and the price was relatively low. Soybean oil production decreased and the price was relatively high.
3. Import and export volume of soybean oil
With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the consumption and import of soybean oil have increased year by year. Changes in soybean oil imports have a growing impact on domestic soybean oil prices. After 2006, with the cancellation of soybean oil import quota, domestic and foreign soybean oil markets will be integrated. In this way, the influence of soybean oil import quantity on domestic soybean oil price will be further enhanced.
4. Soybean oil inventory
Soybean oil inventory is an important part of supply, and the amount of inventory reflects the tension of supply. In most cases, insufficient inventory leads to price increase, while sufficient inventory leads to price decrease. Because soybean oil is not easy to be preserved for a long time, once the stock of soybean oil increases, the price of soybean oil tends to go down.
(2) Consumption of soybean oil
1. Domestic demand situation
China is a big consumer of soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil consumption has grown rapidly, maintaining an annual growth rate of more than 12%.
2. The prosperity of the catering industry
China's vegetable oil production and consumption rank among the top in the world. With the improvement of living standards of urban residents, more and more people eat out, and the prosperity of catering industry has a very obvious impact on the demand for soybean oil.
(3) the prices of related commodities and substitute commodities
1. Soybean price
The price of soybean directly affects the production cost of soybean oil. Many large domestic crushing enterprises choose imported soybeans as processing raw materials, which makes the crushing capacity of imported soybeans far exceed that of domestic soybeans, thus making the price of soybean oil more and more affected by the price of imported soybeans. The benefit of soybean crushing is one of the important factors that determine the supply of soybean oil. If the squeezing efficiency of soybean processing plants is kept down, some factories will stop production, thus reducing the market supply of soybean oil.
2. The price relationship between soybean oil and soybean meal
Soybean oil is the downstream product of soybean, and about tons of soybean oil and tons of soybean meal can be squeezed out per ton of soybean. The prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are closely related. According to years of experience, in most cases, the price of soybean meal is high, and the price of soybean oil will fall; When soybean meal is unsalable, the operating rate of soybean processing plants will decrease, the output of soybean oil will decrease, and the price of soybean oil will often rise.
3. The price of soybean oil substitutes
In addition to the high correlation between soybean oil price and soybean meal price, soybean oil substitutes such as rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut oil and cottonseed oil also have a certain impact on soybean oil price. If the price of soybean oil is too high, refineries or oil-using enterprises often replace it with other vegetable oils, resulting in a decrease in the demand for soybean oil and a decrease in the price of soybean oil.
Impact of agricultural, trade and food policies
1. Agricultural policy
National agricultural policies often affect farmers' choice of planting varieties. For example, in recent years, the state has guided farmers to increase soybean planting area by adjusting relevant industrial policies, thus directly increasing domestic soybean production. After May 2004 1, China implemented a new vegetable oil standard, which improved the product quality and hygiene and safety requirements of vegetable oil, and increased the inspection of peroxide value and solvent residue index. These policies have a certain impact on the price of soybean oil.
2. Import and export trade policy
Over the years, the change of national import and export trade policy has a great influence on the total import and export of soybean oil in China. For example, 1994, People's Republic of China (PRC) State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China adjusted the tariff rate of imported soybean oil, and the tariff rate was reduced from 20% to 13%. At the same time, the tariff rates of vegetable oils such as peanut oil and palm oil have also been reduced to varying degrees, resulting in a large increase in the import of vegetable oils such as soybean oil and a rapid increase in the supply of soybean oil.
3. Food policy
In recent years, with the occurrence of avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease, considering the impact of genetically modified foods on human health, more and more countries have implemented new food policies. These new grain policies have affected the consumption demand of soybean oil through the influence on food and catering industry.