The industry believes that the new fund is a good layout window for fund managers and investors. Compared with the old fund being dragged down by historical shareholding, the new fund has flexible positions during the opening period, which can be laid out calmly and make it easier to obtain excess returns. Although Public Offering of Fund is not as hot as it was two years ago, the freezing point of issuance is passing, and long-term investment has attracted more attention.
Sub-new funds are entering the market in an orderly manner.
Wind data shows that as of May 24th, the scale of 243 equity funds established since the beginning of the year reached 27.7438+0 billion yuan, and the scale of 604 hybrid funds reached 65.438+0.45625 billion yuan. Judging from the rhythm of net value fluctuation, new funds are entering the market in an orderly manner.
According to the author's statistics, as of the end of the first quarter, the average stock position of 36 active stock-based sub-new funds established in late October of/kloc-0 was 53.83%. Among them, each fund has experienced about 2 months of operation, and the stock position has been rapidly improved. At the end of the first quarter, the stock positions of several funds have reached 90%. For example, at the end of the first quarter, the stock positions of Jin Chuang He Xin, who specializes in innovation and Huaan Advantage, have reached 93.68% and 93.65%.
The tight pace of jiacang also showed in February and March. In addition, the proportion of investment in equity assets has gradually increased, accelerating the opening of sub-new funds that are opening positions. Especially for holding products, their stock positions have increased even more. For example, the multi-value three-year holding mix between China and Europe has reached 94.28%.
However, it is worth noting that there has also been a great differentiation in shareholding positions, and some sub-new funds are in a lower position in the center of positions. For example, some debt portfolios, such as six-month financing stable credit gain and one-year stable holding in Central Europe and Zhao Yi, remain at around 3%.
Compared with the old fund positions in the same period, as of the end of the first quarter, excluding stock funds, the average shareholding position of hybrid sub-new funds with comparable data was 44. 14%, while the average shareholding position of hybrid old funds in the same period was 67.09%. It can be seen that the old fund holds a higher position and it is easier to retreat in the overall falling market. In contrast, the position of the new fund is more flexible.
It is understood that the opening period of newly established funds will generally not exceed 6 months. During this period, fund managers will gradually open positions according to their own investment habits in combination with market conditions. A fund researcher in Shanghai bluntly told the author, "As far as sub-new funds are concerned, their positions are more flexible. In the current market downturn, it is more calm to choose when to add positions. In addition, the portfolio construction of the new fund is basically a reflection of the short-term, one-year or six-month judgment in the future. In the new opening period, investors can make choices faster. Compared with the fund managers of the old funds, they have been doing layout for a long time and do not have such an advantage. "
A fund manager who manages sub-new funds in Shanghai believes that at the current time node, some excellent asset advantages have been highlighted, and many high-quality stocks have appeared very good long-term investment opportunities. Portfolio is rapidly concentrating on such assets.
New funds with active stocks outperformed the market.
Wind data shows that as of May 24th, the average return of 540 newly established active equity funds (including common equity funds, partial stock mixed funds, flexible allocation funds and balanced mixed funds) (with separated shares) since their establishment is -3. 13%. Compared with the old active stock funds, the average rate of return this year is-15.39%. From the data point of view, the new fund has surpassed the performance of the old fund by more than 12 percentage points. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen index has risen and fallen by-17.94%, and the return of the new fund has also outperformed it by more than 14 percentage points.
In this regard, East China market participants told the author that under the background of market turmoil this year, some sub-new funds generally aim at absolute returns and will use low positions when there is no opportunity or the overall downside risk of the market is large, which is an advantage that the old funds do not have.
Facing the market fluctuation environment since the beginning of the year, fund managers will choose to speed up or slow down the lightening. The flexible layout of the second new fund makes it outperform the broader market.
According to the analysis of the above fund managers, this year's new fund has obvious excess returns compared with similar old funds. The core point is that the new fund is still in the opening period, and the proportion of stock assets in the fund is relatively low. For funds in the opening period, the fund manager can put me in the rhythm of opening positions, because it is convenient to enter the market at the right time, and there is no limit on equity positions, while similar old funds should stay within the scope of contract restrictions, so the proportion of stock assets is relatively high. Secondly, in addition to positions, the investment style of the investment manager will also affect the performance of the fund.
The fund manager of the new fund has something to say
The popularity of Public Offering of Fund's issuance began to show. Based on the optimistic about the current layout opportunities, many well-known fund managers have launched new products. In this regard, the author interviewed several fund managers who have recently developed new products, and conducted in-depth discussions on the development and judgment of the market outlook.
Guofuxin enjoys a one-year closed-end hybrid fund managed by Liu Xiao, the fund manager of Guohai Frank. Looking forward to the market outlook, she has several points to talk about.
From the perspective of economic development, the pressure of steady growth gradually increased in the fourth quarter of last year, and it will take some time for many steady growth measures to show results. Therefore, in the first half of this year, the economic pressure was relatively large, and the market's own resilience was weak. In the case that the market itself is weak, two unexpected negative factors are superimposed. One is the commodity surge caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the other is the repeated domestic epidemic, which may be the worst stage of the market in the whole year. At present, although the policy level is more concerned and the market sentiment is basically vented to the bottom, the fundamental reversal may still have to wait until the second quarter or even the third quarter, before which it may be a good time to open a position.
In terms of industry sectors, Liu Xiao further pointed out that it will focus on coal, nonferrous metals, photovoltaics and related sectors with stable growth. Energy, non-ferrous metals and other industries have not had particularly large production capacity and development expenditure in the past few years, resulting in insufficient supply elasticity. It is expected that prices will remain high this year. Although the price of coal has declined after reaching its peak last year, it may not reach its peak this year, but the average price this year should be higher than last year, as should copper, oil and non-ferrous metals. Overall, the prosperity of coal and nonferrous metals will be higher this year.
In the case of greater economic pressure, Liu Xiao believes that the steady growth sector will exert its strength this year. At present, the government special debt has been vigorously promoted, but real estate investment still needs to wait. The logic of real estate needs to observe the turning point of policy, which will take some time. Alpha opportunities mainly exist in other links of the real estate chain, such as building materials and home appliances. Some of the targets with anti-risk ability have obvious alpha and growth, and these two sectors are currently at a relatively low level after the double killing of performance and valuation.
In addition, since 2020, due to the outbreak of overseas demand, the growth of photovoltaic sector has been accepted by the market. In 2020 and 20021,the industry valuation was significantly improved and the performance increased rapidly. However, the 202 1 industry has experienced a sharp rise in the price of silicon materials, and its profit is not high, but the main reason for its sharp rise is the high growth of the future market, ignoring the short-term performance. At present, the overall valuation of the photovoltaic sector is in a reasonable position compared with the beginning of the year. At the same time, the industry is expected to contribute considerable growth in the next few years, and the possibility of further valuation is low. At present, it may be the stage of gradually collecting chips. Liu Xiao added: "This year is mainly about making more money than expected and increasing performance. Performance growth has been reflected in their respective profit forecasts, and more is the opportunity to see individual stocks. " Regarding future investment opportunities, Liu Xiao said that the second and third quarters are a good stage to collect chips. The focus of future research will continue to focus on bottom-up stock selection and attach importance to the logic of company performance growth and valuation matching.
Lv Bin, manager of the 2020-share champion fund, said that the most anxious thing now is not the downside risk of the market, but the "upside risk". In his view, the current investment opportunities outweigh the investment risks, and now it is necessary to race against time.
It is reported that HSBC Jintrust Times Pioneer, a new fund managed by Lu Bin, has been put on sale. Lu Bin himself will purchase RMB 5,654.38+0.6 million, and the company will contribute RMB 6,543.8+0.0 million to subscribe for the product.
Facing the complicated and changeable market, Lu Bin said that understanding the current market situation means that "the upward risk is far greater than the downward risk".
In Lu Bin's view, risks are upward risks and downward risks. Upward risk, that is, when the market is good, investors often feel that the rate of return is low and do not participate in the market in time. Downward risk, that is, when the market is not good, people often think that falling is a kind of risk. In the investment dimension defined by Lu Bin, risk has the above two dimensions.
"If the risks are assessed objectively, the current upside risks will be far greater than the downside risks, and the opportunities in the market will be more than the risks of market decline." Lu Bin said that the investment opportunities of many stocks outweigh the risks.
Lu Bin stressed that if people are too worried about the downside risks of volatility and pessimism now, then they may often bear downside risks in the next two or three years. In Lu Bin's view, if investors don't invest and lay out under the circumstances that the implied rate of return in the market is relatively high, the valuation is reasonable or relatively underestimated, this will often bring possible rising risks in the future and miss the possible market valuation regression and value discovery in the next two or three years. If investors reinvest at that time, they may bear great valuation risk and downside risk.
For the development of the market outlook, Lu Bin believes that the opportunities in the current market far outweigh the risks. Whether it is the top-down risk premium, the valuation level of the whole market and various industries, or the bottom-up implied rate of return predicted by many companies for one or two years, Lu Bin clearly stated that the current market opportunities outweigh the risks. "At the same time, we may find these investment opportunities in the fields of new energy Internet, medical consumption, military industry, PEG production, high-end equipment and new materials in TMT, etc., which we feel nervous or have a relatively high implied rate of return. At the same time, we will also pay attention to cycle and value stocks, and do a good job in style hedging and risk response. This is our general view of the market. " Lu bindao.
Regarding future investment opportunities, Lu Bin said that the main investment line in the last three quarters of this year may be the high-quality growth sector, and he pays attention to four major opportunities. The first is the new energy vehicles in the core assets, such as photovoltaic, medicine and Internet; Second, high-end equipment, new materials and TMT in growth stocks, and third, large-cap stocks in real estate and brokerages; The fourth is companies in the cyclical oil and gas industry chain.
The new product of Shen Wanling Trust Fund, Shen Wanling Xinle Rong, was recently put on sale for one year. Fu Juan, the proposed fund manager, also made some judgments on the market outlook.
From a macroeconomic point of view, the epidemic may drag down the economic growth in the first half of the year, and some data have shown marginal improvement. This epidemic has a great impact on consumption, logistics, investment, production and other fields, and is expected to drag down the economic data in the second quarter. It is expected that various structural monetary policies will play a more important role in steady growth in the second quarter. On the whole, some data show a good trend, and the supply chain margin has been affected by the epidemic since April. At the same time, under the general trend of overweight investment in infrastructure, the apparent consumption of steel and the delivery rate of cement have improved significantly since mid-April.
From the exchange rate point of view, the United States may revise its "oversaturated" interest rate hike expectation, and the exchange rate will not lead to monetary policy tightening in the short term. In May, the FOMC meeting raised the policy interest rate (target interest rate of federal funds) from 0.25-0.50% to 0.75- 1.00%, by 50bp. Regarding the pace of future interest rate hikes, Powell said that FOMC thinks it is possible to raise interest rates by 50 basis points each time in the next two monetary policy meetings, but has not actively considered the possibility of raising interest rates by 75 basis points at a time. Previously, the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates have been "supersaturated". As the subsequent inflation data gradually peaks, it is expected that the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike will be difficult to further accelerate. On the evening of April 25th, the central bank lowered the foreign exchange reserve ratio 1 percentage point, and directly released the US dollar reserves, which was equivalent to increasing the US dollar supply, which helped to temporarily release the pressure of RMB depreciation, but it is not expected to change the trend of RMB depreciation.
Judging from the A-share market, the risk of A-share will be released quickly after the epidemic recovery exceeds expectations, and the medium-term opportunities of A-share may outweigh the risks. At the valuation level, all-A valuation has fallen to a historical low, ERP is above the standard deviation of three-year rolling 1 times, most growth sectors have fallen back to the level of 1x or even 0.5xPEG, and some sectors in the main style are below the valuation quantile of 15%. The price/performance ratio at the valuation level of market transactions has been highlighted. Market transactions are close to the emotional trough, and the medium-term opportunities of A shares may outweigh the risks. Stylistically, the expected stage of steady growth is full, and we are more optimistic about the current high valuation and cost-effective growth and repair efforts. When the market recovers, growth stocks will play a pioneering role in the rebound, such as semiconductors and new energy.