I. Market price
Market prices include spot and futures prices. These two prices are both related and different. These two prices are restricted and interfered by many factors, such as supply and demand, which change greatly and the price determination mechanism is very complicated. Generally speaking, spot prices and futures prices are affected by similar factors, so the direction and range of changes are basically the same. However, due to the convergence of market trends, the basis of gold (that is, the difference between the spot price of gold and the futures price) will continue to decrease as the futures delivery date approaches. At the delivery date, the futures price and spot price of the transaction are roughly equal. Theoretically, the futures price should stably reflect the spot price plus the holding cost of a specific delivery period. Therefore, the futures price of gold should be higher than the spot price, the forward futures price should be higher than the new futures price, and the basis is negative. However, the factors that determine the spot price and futures price are more complicated, such as the short-term and long-term supply of gold, including the annual output of gold, and the central banks selling gold reserves. Market demand of gold, including changes in actual demand of gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc.). ), gold recycling, etc. The political stability in the world and other countries, the level of inflation rate, the expected annualized interest rate and some unexpected events are the main factors that affect investors' psychology, and then affect the trend of gold prices; Speculators use gold price fluctuations and unexpected events to speculate, and various hedge funds enter the market to make waves, artificially creating the illusion of supply and demand. All these may make the relationship between gold supply and demand in the world gold market unbalanced and the relationship between spot price and futures price distorted. At this time, due to the shortage of gold, the cost of holding futures cannot be compensated, or even the basis is positive, resulting in the phenomenon that the spot price is higher than the futures price and the futures price is higher than the forward futures price.
With the establishment of Hong Kong gold market and other gold markets, the world gold market has become a continuous whole, trading 24 hours a day. Due to the above factors, the price of gold in the world market often fluctuates violently. Only the medium and long-term average price, because of various speculative factors, is a more objective reflection of the market price of gold affected by the relationship between supply and demand. For example, in the 45 gold auctions of the International Monetary Fund from 1976 to 1980, the average price was USD/oz, which was very close to the average price of London gold pricing market in the same period.
Second, the production price.
The production price is based on the production cost and the market price, and an obviously stable price base is established. At the current exchange rate, the average total cost of gold mining is slightly lower than $260 per ounce (1986, and the cost of gold production in South Africa is about $258 per ounce). In fact, with the progress of technology, the cost of prospecting, mining and refining has been decreasing, and the cost of gold mining is on the decline. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, the annual increase of gold in the world is about 2,600 tons, and the annual demand for gold is over 300 -500 tons. However, due to the large-scale gold throwing behavior of central banks since 1996, the gold price in the international market has been falling all the way from the high of 4 18 USD/oz, even falling to USD/oz, which is lower than the gold production cost in a certain period, making major gold-producing countries suffer huge losses.
Third, quasi-official prices.
This is the price used by the central bank for official gold-related activities. In the quasi-official price, it is divided into mortgage price and bookkeeping price. The total official reserves of central banks in the world (central banks are often the largest holders of gold) are 1998, which is about 34,000 tons. According to the production capacity, this is equivalent to the world gold mineral output 13, accounting for 137400 tons of all mined gold stocks, which is an important reason for determining the quasi-official gold price.
1, mortgage price. This happened in 1974 when Italy borrowed money from the Federal Republic of Germany and used its own gold as collateral. The determination of mortgage price is of great significance in modern gold history. On the one hand, it meets the requirement of the International Monetary Fund that every ounce of gold is equal to 35 special drawing rights, on the other hand, it meets the need of the central bank holding gold not to freeze gold. In fact, this price is a combination of the United States' demand that gold should not be "re-monetized" and Europe's cautious demand that gold be "non-monetized". When borrowing money, gold is used as collateral, which is priced at market price and then discounted. To a certain extent, the price of gold can be preserved because there are a large number of gold mortgages. If the price of gold falls, the interest on the loan term will be higher than the expected annualized interest rate of LIBOR.
2. Bookkeeping price. 197 1 put forward after the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in August. Due to the strong attraction of the market price, under the condition that there is a huge difference between the market price and the official price, countries have raised the official gold price one after another for the need of pricing their official gold reserves, so there has been a quasi-official bookkeeping price to determine the official reserves. There are three main methods in operation: (1) linking with the market price according to different discount standards (net market price or maximum 30% discount), and determining the gold price according to different bases and different adjustment periods (divided into three-month average and month-end average, etc.). (2) Take the purchase price as the pricing basis. (3) Some countries set the official historical price, such as $ 1973 in March, and some countries set it as $ 1969 in the International Monetary Fund. The quasi-official price has become an important gold price in the world gold trading.