Generally speaking, there are roughly four pools of funds held in the global market, namely bond market, stock market, commodity market and foreign exchange market. The bond market generally refers to the national debt market, and of course there are corporate bonds. This article mainly refers to national debt. We used to call it national debt, and now it is also called national debt. There used to be treasury bonds futures in domestic treasury bonds. You may have heard that 1995, a 327 bond futures war broke out between China Economic Development Bank and IWC. This year (20 13), domestic treasury bond futures may recover. The national debt market in the United States is the largest and most liquid in the world, and there are also national debts in Europe, including Spain and Italy. You often see things like the rise in the yield of Greek government bonds in the news, and so on. This is the bond market. Needless to say, China's A-shares and B-shares, such as Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index, European stock market, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and so on. The third is the commodity market. As we all know, copper, rubber, gold and silver, which everyone prefers to trade, belong to the category of bulk commodities. In addition, it also includes agricultural products, such as soybeans, pork and beef brisket. , including egg futures that China may buy in the future. Yes, eggs. There are also agricultural products such as soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and strategic commodities such as crude oil. Everyone knows the foreign exchange market, such as US dollar, euro, pound and other national currencies. These are the four major pools of funds holding global funds.

Now we need to classify these four cash pools. First of all, let's talk about what is a safe-haven asset. A safe-haven asset means that you hold this variety without taking any risks, which can basically guarantee the safety of the principal. You use it to hedge. You may not make money after buying it, but you will never lose money. We call it guaranteed income, and you will definitely not lose money. This is called hedging. So is gold a safe haven? From a globally recognized point of view, the top three safe havens are gold, US Treasury bonds and US dollars. Although the chairmen of the Federal Reserve openly deny that gold is a currency, why do they put gold instead of diamonds and other things in underground warehouses? But if we look at it from another angle, let's not discuss whether gold is a safe-haven asset or a risky asset from an academic point of view. For example, there are two people outside, one has gold and the other has nothing. Who do you think those people outside will rob? Did gold bring you risks or make you safer? So from this point of view, gold is a risky variety at that particular time, because of course it is necessary to rob people with gold. On the other hand, when it comes to chaos, gold may be more useful than paper money. Let's talk about it. If we deposit money in the bank for a fixed period of one year, the current one-year fixed deposit interest rate is 3.25%, which means that we can get 100 yuan by the end of the year. This 3.25 yuan is a fixed income, and we can regard this fixed deposit as a safe-haven investment. As for whether this interest rate is too low and has not exceeded inflation, it is better to leave it alone. This kind of income can definitely protect the capital, not only will it not lose money, but it will also be profitable.

Therefore, there are two hedges in the above four cash pools. One is national debt. As long as you hold bonds, you will get relatively stable income, and the interest rate of government bonds may be higher than that of time deposits. If new off-exchange funds flow into the national debt market, we will see the price of national debt rise. Another safe haven is the US dollar. Although the dollar has been depreciating, it is still a safe haven. Especially during the economic crisis, the market still tends to hold dollars. After all, it is still the global settlement currency, hard currency. So there are two safe-haven varieties, one is national debt and the other is US dollar. Except these two, all the other varieties in the cash pool are risky assets. Some market participants believe that the Japanese yen is a safe-haven asset, but if the Japanese yen and the US dollar are compared together, from the perspective of hedging, the US dollar may still be chosen. Let' s take $ TERM UST $ TERM, the ten-year national debt of the United States, as a representative to analyze it. And the dollar, we use the dollar index $USD.

(US 10-year Treasury bond price, weekly chart 1999-20 13)

If the price of national debt is found to be rising, generally speaking, the market is hedging rather than chasing risks at this time. Risk assets include many things, including the stock market. We use the American S&P index SPX for analysis. Of course, we can also use our own A shares, but compared with the American market, our market capacity and liquidity are slightly inferior. Stock is a kind of risky asset, although its return may far exceed that of going to the bank to deposit money or buy government bonds, or holding dollars, but the premise of this return is to buy the right stock. If we are caught, then we will find that the market value of our stocks is shrinking sharply. At that time, we would wonder why we bought so many stocks in the first place. I might as well put them in the bank and collect some interest. Even if you only receive 3.25 a year, it is much better than eating a daily limit in the stock market. Daily limit 10%, China A shares. The American stock market may sometimes fall by 20%-30% or more a day, when stocks are risky assets. But on the other hand, it is possible to earn dozens of percent, or even two or three times. This requires investors or speculators to take certain risks to strive for a larger income expectation, so stocks are risky assets.

Commodities, especially commodity futures of major exchanges around the world, are even more risky assets. Global commodities are generally denominated in dollars, so if you buy goods, you need to use dollars, which is to sell dollars; And if the market buys dollars, it means selling goods. So if we buy copper, make crude oil, or even trade gold and silver electronically, from the perspective of electronic trading, we are buying risky assets, not hedging. Here, I still want to talk about how to understand that gold is a safe-haven asset. In April this year (20 13), the so-called dispute between "Chinese aunt" and "Wall Street crocodile" was about whether gold was safe.

) Currency War: Did we really win? )

The author thinks that gold is still the number one safe-haven asset in the world, ahead of US Treasury bonds and US dollars, but only if we hold physical gold and silver instead of electronic disks, such as "paper gold" or gold ETF. When money doesn't work and becomes waste paper, such as the gold coupons issued in the mainland in the past, it takes hundreds of thousands to buy a candy. At this point, if you have gold, it will be amazing. You go to buy noodles, and they say they sell 800 thousand on both sides You said I would give you a small piece of gold, and you gave me two Jin of noodles. Can you do it? I think that man must have done it. So at this time, if you hold the real thing, there is no problem. Of course, if you didn't have gold at that time, but you had a lot of copper, such as removing the air conditioner at home or the condenser tube behind the refrigerator, which are copper tubes, you can take them to the street or find a noodle vendor and discuss with him to exchange two kilograms of copper tubes for two kilograms of noodles. It is estimated that he may also agree to this barter trade. So if you hold the spot, you have the property of hedging. Even if you trade gasoline for noodles, it is estimated that vendors will do the same. Iraq reached an agreement with the United Nations to exchange crude oil for food. Therefore, in order to avoid risks, we should hold spot gold and silver instead of trading electronic disks. In electronic disk, we classify commodities as risky assets, which is a general classification. In this way, we understand the so-called capital flow, that is, the flow of funds in several pools between safe-haven assets and risky assets. When people feel that the market is very bad, whether it is a real economic crisis or a worry about the economic crisis, at this time, funds will generally leave the stock market, non-American currencies in the foreign exchange market, and also leave the commodity market to buy dollars, to buy government bonds to obtain capital preservation and meager fixed income, and sometimes even no income. As long as the funds can be safe, such as buying gold to preserve the value, at this time, we will say that the funds have entered a pool of hedging, and we will often see "hedging (risk aversion). At this time, we see that non-American currencies in the stock market, commodities and foreign exchange markets will all fall or fluctuate downward. On the other hand, if the economy is good, or people think it is good, it is often optimistic expectations that drive the market, not the actual situation. According to the domestic statement, at this time, we will see the so-called "big deposit move". Everyone will withdraw money from the bank, and there is no need to deposit a fixed interest rate. They all go to securities companies to open accounts for stocks, futures companies to open accounts for futures, and even foreign exchange. At this time, funds leave the hedge pool to pursue risks and buy risky assets. Therefore, risky assets are sought after and prices are rising all the way. When the bull market of stock market, foreign exchange market and commodities comes, we will find that the bad news not long ago has disappeared and replaced by the good news that has been sung in the media. Have the economic fundamentals completely changed in just a few months? Is it because economic recovery drives demand to rise and eventually prices to rise, or because prices rise and speculative demand rises and eventually leads to economic recovery? Which is the cause and which is the effect? It is worth thinking about by traders.

But in any case, we need to judge the order in which funds flow between safe-haven varieties and risky varieties before trading. Is money safe or risky at this time? Knowing this, we know that the general direction at this time is to choose to be long or short, which is the major premise of trading. For example, after the financial crisis in 2007-08, funds chose to hedge, so everyone held treasury bonds, and the bull market of US Treasury bonds continued or even accelerated. Since 2009, countries have been scrambling to introduce monetary policies to stimulate the economy, resulting in flooding of liquidity. The market thinks it can come out to make more money at this time. After all, the financing cost is very low, and the income from holding government bonds is still too small. Then, after the funds flow out of the national debt market, where should they flow first? Generally speaking, after the funds leave the national debt, they will go to the stock market first, so the entry of OTC funds will certainly push up the stock price, and we will see the stock index rise.

Let's take the Dow Jones index in the United States as an example. In the financial crisis of 2007-2008 in the United States, the Federal Reserve provided the means of quantitative easing. To put it bluntly, it is to print money. They call it QE 1, which means "quantitative easing 1.0 version". By the way, the upgrade is not an American patent, although Microsoft has upgraded from Win 3.0 to Win 8； 20 years ago; Now through Win 95, Win 2000 and Win XP. Apple's mobile phone has also been upgraded to Iphone 5 today, often followed by Arabic numerals, which means endless upgrade plans in the future. In fact, more than 2,000 years ago, after the first unification of China, the emperor was called the first emperor, that is, Qin Shihuang 1.0 (Qin Shihuang), and the later emperor was called Qin Shihuang 2.0 (Qin Ershi). Unfortunately, it was destroyed by Xiang Yu without further upgrading. In this QE 1, Americans printed 600 billion US dollars and China issued 4 trillion RMB. Then we saw the funds leave the national debt market and enter the American stock market. The US stock market started a bull market, and China A shares also broke away from the low point of 1664, and finally rose to 3478 points. Many stocks performed well, and their share prices broke through the high point of 6 124 or even doubled.

(Dow Jones Industrial Average-Weekly Chart)

We can see from the chart that the Dow Jones index has more than doubled from around 6600 points to around 15500 points. By the way, capital is very sensitive to economic development. Before the crisis comes, they will retreat early, and before the recovery comes, they will enter the market early. As can be seen from the figure below, the real estate index in the United States actually began to have funds to leave in 2006. Of course, everyone said that the American financial crisis was marked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Many media regarded the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers as a sign of the financial crisis. In fact, by 2008, the economic crisis was almost over, and it may be too late to print money at this time. Moreover, today's financial crisis only pays for yesterday's greed, which is an inevitable result. You have to pay it back sooner or later, but the bubble will burst sooner or later. The rise and fall of the market, like the ebb and flow of the tide, has its inherent natural laws. Is it really necessary for an institution like the Federal Reserve to play the role of savior? There are many problems that can be studied, so let's stop here for the time being and not discuss too much.

(Dow Jones housing starts index-weekly chart)

Of course, after the money was earned, the economy bottomed out twice, but the double dip did not hit a new low. As can be seen from the above figure, the Dow Jones housing starts index declined in the fourth quarter of 20 1 1, but it did not fall below the low point in 2009. At this time, the price of national debt fell, funds flowed out of the national debt market and began to chase risky assets. At this time, the US stock market rose.

(National debt price and housing construction index)

When the Ministry of Finance chooses to hedge, the first stop of inflow is often the stock market. Then, if the fund feels that it has made almost all the money in the stock market and made a lot of money, and is ready to leave the stock market, it will sell the stock and make a fortune. At this time, capital will make a choice. Should we re-enter the bond market or gamble again? If it finds that the economy is still good at this time, especially in China, and the GDP is still growing, the funds leaving the stock market will generally chase commodities, so the third is to chase commodities. At this time, we will see that the prices of industrial products such as copper and rubber may have a bull market, and at the same time, we will see that commodity currencies, such as Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar, will all rise well.

(Dow Jones housing starts index and crude oil and copper)

Conclusion: Commodities such as copper and crude oil are positively correlated with commodity currencies such as Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar.

As we all know, international purchases of bulk commodities are generally settled in US dollars. This process is actually selling US dollars to buy commodities. Therefore, if the market tends to buy goods, the US dollar will generally be under pressure at this time, while non-US currencies such as the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc will generally rise. This is the relationship between commodities and the trend of foreign exchange market. Therefore, the negative correlation between dollars and commodities is also due to the existence of the above factors. As mentioned above, the capital flows from the bond market to the stock market, and finally to the commodity and foreign exchange markets. If one day people find that the economy may not work, or they are pessimistic about the market outlook, they will quickly sell their goods, sell their stocks and change them into dollars, and then return to the bond market, waiting for the next economic recovery. So what help does the flow of funds between hedge and risky assets and the order of flow bring to our transaction? It is very important to find out the location of the main funds. When we are ready to trade a certain variety, we need to see whether the mainstream funds are in this market. If it is found that funds start to flow in, then it will be more reliable for us to follow up at this time. You must not short at this time. The main funds are long, and you are short. Shorting is going against the sky! Isn't this the so-called "you turn over the table when you get the food"? The consequences will be serious. Therefore, it must be consistent with the main funds. If you find that funds have left the bond market and the price of national debt is falling, what should you do at this time? At this time, you should buy stocks first, because you know that when funds leave the bond market, they will enter the stock market first.

Let's give a recent example. Let's take a look at the US ten-year national debt UST first. In the last two years, we can see that UST went down in the summer of 20 12, and the price of national debt has been sideways and slightly weaker until this year (20 13). The weak price of national debt means that someone is selling national debt. If you don't choose hedging, funds will generally flow into the stock market, so the performance of the stock market will be slightly better at this time.

(Weekly chart of US 10-year Treasury bond price and S&P index)

As can be seen from the above figure, in August and September of 20 1 1, the price of national debt rose, while the stock market fell. This is short-term. In the long run, the national debt has been sideways from 20 1 10 to 20 13 in the second quarter. At the same time, the American stock market is a big bull market, and this is the American stock market, not the China stock market, and China happens to be a big bear market. So when the stock market moves very well, we will see the price of safe-haven assets weaken. Or on the other hand, when the funds pay little attention to the national debt, they may think that the yield of the national debt is relatively low, or that the economy has recovered and there is no big problem, or that there is QE and the financing cost is very low, so the funds leave the national debt market and enter the stock market, thus pushing up the stock price. This is why we see that the national debt and the stock market are negatively correlated.

Conclusion: When funds leave the national debt market, they will generally flow into the stock market first, and then into the commodity and foreign exchange markets.

At this point, we seem to be talking about other markets, not precious metals. But in fact, it has a lot to do with the precious metals we will talk about later, because if we can clearly judge the flow of funds, we can grasp the general trend of precious metals. If we look at the above picture more carefully, we will find that whenever the price of government bonds falls, the stock market price will rise; When the national debt price rises, the stock market price generally falls. Then this process is repeated several times, basically synchronized, which is very interesting. From the end of 20 12 to March this year (20 13), the price of national debt dropped significantly, while the American stock index kept hitting new highs. There is a synchronous market behind, that is, the national debt and the stock index rise simultaneously. This situation is relatively rare. We can compare it to a "mistake" between the national debt and the stock index, and the negative correlation becomes a positive correlation. This often means trading opportunities, and when the market corrects mistakes in the future, it will be a wave of market conditions, so we saw the decline in the price of government bonds throughout May. Therefore, under normal circumstances, because of the negative correlation between national debt and the stock market, if you want to do more stock indexes or even more commodities, you need to see whether the price of national debt supports you to do more. If you don't support it, then you need to consider whether to short the stock index and commodities or stay on the sidelines. This is very important. Because sometimes you don't have to go short when there is no inflow of funds, because the market may fluctuate at this time and won't give you a good chance to go short, but it won't go up or down, so you can't make money by going short. But in any case, since the main force has left at this time, we should also leave this market, and then we need to observe which market the funds have gone to, and then consider whether we need to follow that market.

So if you find that the funds have left the national debt market at this time, then you should consider entering the stock market to do more. If the funds return to the national debt, of course, you can't do more stocks, but that doesn't mean you can short stocks or stock indexes, and you can't hedge them because of funds, so I want to short stock indexes, not necessarily. Because the stock index may fluctuate at this time, there is no chance of shorting. We just need to know that we can't play stocks at this time, and we need to play something else, such as doing foreign exchange, or finding a weaker commodity to short, but we must never do more stocks. If we encounter the "wrong" market mentioned above, such as the stock index hitting a new high, but the national debt is also rising at the same time, we don't know which is wrong, buying national debt or someone buying stocks. You need to think about it at this time, but maybe you can leave the stock market at this time and stop chasing high. This is the basic judgment of the market capital flow caused by the capital flow between the national debt and the stock market.

Secondly, if you find that the stock market is rising, generally speaking, after decisive time, related commodities will also rise. In particular, traders who usually pay more attention to the external market are actually tracking the global market and can choose the most convenient varieties for trading in many pools. For example, let's change the main picture just now into commodity index, Reuters CRB index, and the code is CCI.

(Figure 1 -9, commodity index and S&P index)

From the above figure, we will find that, on the whole, the commodity index and the stock index are positively correlated, but there are differences in time. For example, 20 1 1 From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the stock market is weak and the commodities are relatively weak. Then at the end of 20 1 1, the stock market began to rise, and commodities rose later, and then the stock market fell, and commodities also fell later, basically going hand in hand. Of course, there is no record high behind commodities, but the stock market has hit a new high, which shows that funds are pursuing the stock market rather than commodities. So if you want to do more commodities, such as silver, at this time, if you look at the efficiency of capital use, you can consider doing stocks first, because you can see that commodities are obviously weaker than the stock market, which means more money has entered the stock market. Of course, some funds have flowed into the commodity market, but more people have entered the stock market.

In addition, the trend of bulk commodities is still subject to the development of the real economy and is greatly affected by the supply and demand side. Especially in recent years, the trend of bulk commodities, especially industrial products, mainly depends on the development of China's real economy, so if China's GDP continues to decline, then international funds will think that since a big family like China doesn't buy bulk commodities, why should we buy them? It is better to buy stocks. Some time ago, the European stock market was good, and the funds went to Europe first. Then the United States was good in the past two months, and the funds went to the American stock market. So the American stock market was finally pushed to a new high, and Americans had a record high since the stock market. This is what we see as the "overall situation". Then, from the above picture, the stock market is adjusting downward, and the commodities are also downward, but the range is larger, and the subsequent trends are almost synchronous, so we will see it clearly.

Here is the relationship between commodities and the foreign exchange market. Although money is naturally gold and silver, this is what Marx said, but here we first talk about the currency issued by the state, or paper money, which is closely related to commodities. After capital flows into commodities, it will generally push up commodity currencies, such as Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. So you will find that among the recent commodity currencies, the New Zealand dollar is the strongest. The New Zealand dollar is stronger than the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. Why? New Zealand is also a resource exporter, but it exports more agricultural products such as milk. In the past, when there was no Mengniu in China, New Zealand boxed and bottled milk sold well in the south of China. That kind of milk is delicious, it should be said that it is much better than domestic milk. Australia mainly exports iron ore and copper, while Canada mainly exports crude oil. They have oil sands. The biggest buyer of these two commodities is China, and China is the biggest buyer of crude oil, copper and iron ore. Therefore, if China's economy slows down, the buying of these commodities will also weaken, so the related currencies will also weaken. However, the New Zealand dollar is a commodity currency after all. As I said just now, the US stock market is positively related to major commodities, so when the stock market goes up, commodities will also go up. However, we can see that New Zealand's agricultural products have not been affected by the decline in industrial products. We can also see that since last year, the commodity market has maintained a pattern of "strong agriculture and weak workers", that is to say, the trend of agricultural products is generally stronger than that of industrial products. So some traders do hedging transactions, that is, buy agricultural products and throw away industrial products, which is the so-called "buy CPI and sell PPI", so the NZD is stronger. If you do foreign exchange, you can do it against the dollar. If we think that the trend of this currency pair is not strong enough, we will find a currency weaker than the US dollar, such as the Japanese yen, and we will make a cross between the New Zealand dollar and it. The logic here is: NZD is stronger than USD, while USD is stronger than JPY, so the crossing of NZD and JPY is equivalent to amplifying the contrast between the two currency pairs, and then we can find a good bull market for NZD and JPY currency pairs. This is the idea of making direct orders and cross orders in the foreign exchange market.

The above is a positive description of the stock market, commodities and non-American currencies. To sum up, before we enter the market, we need to know whether the funds are hedging or taking risks at this time. If you choose to take risks, what is the flow order of funds? Once the order is clear, then we will choose the variety we want to make, whether it is stock spot, stock index, commodity or related currency, European currency, Japanese yen or commodity currency. All these are understood, then we have a very clear picture. Taking these judgments as the premise of trading, the judgment at this time will be very reliable. We will not blindly enter the market to trade, nor will we blindly stop losses, nor will we blindly change the trading direction at will. At this time, you will find that your trade will be very orderly. Gold and silver are currencies, which belong to the category of foreign exchange market and commodities, and can be classified with metals such as copper and belong to the category of international commodities. Therefore, the analysis ideas mentioned above are closely related to correctly judging the trend of precious metals. Therefore, we should first judge the defense line of capital flow, and then choose which market to trade which product. If you can do this, then your advance and retreat will be well-founded, your opening and closing positions will be reasonable, and your stop loss will be restrained and not disorderly. If you can clearly understand this and actually do it, I believe you have surpassed 80% of traders.

All the above are normal capital flows, which are the basic premise to judge the market trend. However, there are also abnormal situations in the market. For example, some time ago, the US dollar and US stocks rose together, indicating that there was an error. If there are mistakes, there will be an error correction market. This error correction is another trading opportunity. Therefore, when the US dollar and US stocks rose simultaneously in the early stage, we judged that the US dollar might be adjusted first, and the US stocks would be adjusted after the meeting. Now it seems that the dollar should be adjusted first. So at this time, we need to be bearish on the dollar and analyze it from the perspective of capital flow.

You can't understand the above content once. You'd better watch it several times!

No matter what market you invest in, you must first have time to take care of your investment. If you want to buy some, it is not recommended. If you have enough time every day, you can make some investments. If you plan to make an investment, you can trust me privately.

Hope to adopt thank you!