In this case, if the international export quotation of these raw materials remains unchanged, the cost of importing them into China will generally drop by 2% compared with that before appreciation, which will obviously have a direct negative impact on domestic prices, so the first reaction of the futures market should also be the price drop.
2. Once the import cost is reduced due to the appreciation of RMB, it may improve the domestic demand for these imported raw materials, thus increasing the import volume.
This will have a positive impact on related commodities in the international market to a certain extent, which may lead to further upward price, at least to a great extent, there will be room for the ceiling price to fall.
Extended data:
1. RMB exchange rate reform must adhere to the principles of initiative, controllability and gradualism.
On the basis of this principle, RMB appreciation is a gradual process. The initial appreciation of 2% is far less than the market expectation of 5%, which shows that the RMB will continue to appreciate in the future.
2. The People's Bank of China will adjust the floating range of exchange rate according to market development and economic and financial situation.
At the same time, the People's Bank of China is responsible for managing and regulating the RMB exchange rate according to the domestic and international economic and financial situation, based on market supply and demand, with reference to changes in the exchange rate of a basket of currencies, maintaining the normal fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, promoting the basic balance of international payments, and maintaining macroeconomic and financial market stability.
China Net-Analysis of the Impact of RMB Appreciation on the Domestic Futures Market