What impact does the rise in international oil prices have on the global economy? In particular, what is the impact on the capital market and why is there such a result? Help the gods.
Generally speaking, the rise in oil prices may have an impact on the world economy in the following aspects: First, the rise in oil prices will lead to a decrease in global aggregate demand, which is not conducive to world economic growth. After the oil price rises, there will be a transfer of income from oil importing countries, that is, oil consuming countries, to oil exporting countries, that is, oil producing countries. Because the expenditure tendency of income losers (energy consumers) is generally greater than that of income gainers (energy producers), this income transfer will reduce the total demand in the economy. The sharp rise in oil prices is also a double-edged sword for oil exporting countries. Although net oil exporters have increased their national income through the increase of oil export income in a certain period of time, in the long run, the decrease of oil demand caused by the economic recession of trading partners may eventually lead to the decrease of oil export income and national income of oil exporting countries. Therefore, the sharp rise in oil prices is also unfavorable to the economic development of oil exporting countries. Second, rising oil prices will drive up the price level and inflation level of countries and even the world. The rise in oil prices has increased the cost of almost all areas of production in various countries. Under normal circumstances, enterprises will transfer the increased costs by raising product prices. This will directly lead to the aggravation of inflation. The trend of oil price in the second half of the 20th century shows that the increase of oil price is directly proportional to the overall inflation rate of the world economy. 1970-2000, every time oil prices rose sharply, world commodity prices rose, and inflation rates in many countries rose. In the United States, the consumer price index, as an inflation indicator, obviously fluctuates with the fluctuation of the world oil price. Third, the rise in oil prices has a direct and indirect adverse impact on global financial markets. The rise in oil prices has caused actual and expected changes in economic activities, corporate profits, inflation and monetary policy, which will adversely affect the global stock market and bond prices and the exchange rate between currencies. For net oil importers, rising oil prices will worsen their balance of payments and their financial assets will depreciate. The two oil crises in 1970s also seriously dampened the confidence of consumers and enterprises in western developed countries. As the world's largest oil consumer, the United States, this negative impact is particularly obvious, and its related index plummeted by 50%, leading to a sharp decline in household consumption and corporate capital expenditure in the United States.