1 why does the photovoltaic sector skyrocket in 2020?
First of all, let me introduce you to what photovoltaic is. Photovoltaic (PV) is a new type of power generation system that directly converts solar radiation energy into electric energy by using semiconductor materials of solar cells. In short, photovoltaic is the use of sunlight to generate electricity. The reason why our country vigorously develops photovoltaics is that sunlight is a kind of sustainable clean energy. Secondly, as a big oil importer, clean energy is a necessity for long-term and stable development in order to get rid of geopolitical influence and dependence on oil exporting countries. Therefore, in the past 20 years, the country has been vigorously developing the photovoltaic industry, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation has also dropped. Single crystal silicon wafer has changed from 100 yuan/wafer a year ago to 3 yuan/wafer now, and components have changed from 30 yuan/watt to 1.6 yuan/watt.
One of the reasons for the surge of photovoltaic power generation in 2020 is that the cost of photovoltaic power generation has been reduced to the same as that of traditional energy sources such as thermal power and hydropower, which we call parity internet access. On August 5, 2020, the National Energy Administration released the list of affordable photovoltaic and wind power projects in 2020, with a total scale of 44.45GW, including 33.05GW of photovoltaic. At present, the lowest electricity price in the country is the grid-connected photovoltaic project in Qinghai, and the local hydropower grid-connected electricity price is 0.227 yuan/kWh. At present, the benchmark electricity price of thermal power grid connection in all provinces and regions in China is 0.25~0.45 yuan/kWh.
With the reduction of costs, demand is constantly being released. In the first three quarters of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity was 18.7GW, a year-on-year increase of 16.95%. It is estimated that the installed photovoltaic capacity in China is expected to reach 36-38GW in the whole year. At this year's annual meeting of photovoltaic industry in China, the Deputy Director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration said: "From the current calculation, the installed photovoltaic capacity during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period will be much higher than that during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period."
The photovoltaic industry has experienced great ups and downs in the past 20 years.
On April 24th, 1970, the "Dongfanghong-1" satellite was launched. Photovoltaic cells were loaded on the satellite at that time. Although we began to study solar power generation in 1970s, due to the high cost, photovoltaic power generation has remained in the "laboratory" stage.
In fact, the civilian use of photovoltaic first emerged in the European market around 2000. Natural gas and oil in Germany, Spain and other countries are also subject to people, so photovoltaic subsidy policies have been introduced one after another, igniting the European market. Under the background of rising overseas demand, the photovoltaic industry in China has gradually developed, and a number of star enterprises have been born and joined the global industrial chain. In 2004, it was the highlight of the global photovoltaic industry.
However, at that time, the domestic photovoltaic industry was dominated by the processing of low-tech batteries and components, and the upstream silicon materials needed to be imported in large quantities, and the sales of downstream components were also in overseas markets. We are faced with the situation of "two heads out". Subsequently, in 2008, the world suffered from the subprime mortgage crisis, and Europe drastically cut subsidies. Subsequently, the United States launched a "double-reverse" investigation on photovoltaic enterprises in China. The export of domestic photovoltaic enterprises plummeted, but the production capacity broke out in China. The industry is facing a serious imbalance between supply and demand, product prices have fallen sharply, and a large number of photovoltaic enterprises have closed down. It was the darkest moment in China's photovoltaic industry.
However, under the great pressure of European and American markets, the China government has increased its support for the photovoltaic industry. 20 12 In July, the government issued the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Solar Power Generation, which further raised the installed capacity targets in 20 15 and 2020 to 2 1GW and 50GW. On June 5438+ 10 of the same year, State Grid issued the Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Grid-connected Services of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation, which started the grid-connected time of distributed power generation and fully supported distributed energy generation. In difficult times, photovoltaic enterprises in China have gained a firm foothold by virtue of technological upgrading.
3 photovoltaic industry chain pattern
At present, the domestic photovoltaic industry is relatively mature. Throughout the whole industrial chain, it can be roughly divided into three links: silicon materials and wafers in the upstream, batteries and components in the midstream, and photovoltaic power stations in the downstream.
For the silicon link, it needs to be imported from abroad in the early years. However, with the improvement of domestic polysilicon technology, domestic production capacity began to explode. In 20 19, the domestic polysilicon production capacity was 45.2GW, accounting for 69.2% of the global total. In terms of silicon materials, the cost advantage of leading enterprises is very obvious, and small enterprises gradually withdraw, basically forming a monopoly pattern.
In the silicon wafer sector, China's silicon wafer production capacity accounts for 97.3% of the world, accounting for an absolute share, making it a big country in silicon wafer manufacturing. In the field of silicon wafer, the same leading pattern is stable and the concentration is high. There are technical differences between single crystal and polysilicon wafers. At present, the market share of monocrystalline silicon wafers is gradually increasing, forming a trend.
Battery can be said to be the core link in the photovoltaic industry chain, with high technology content, which is the key to reducing costs. At the end of 20 19, the domestic solar cell production capacity was 163.9GW, up 28% year-on-year, accounting for more than 70% of the global total. In the field of battery chips, the pattern is relatively scattered, and the concentration is expected to be further improved.
Components can be understood as assembling batteries into power generation boards, so the technical content of components is not high, and more attention is paid to scale effect, cost control, brand and channel barriers. At present, the pattern in the field of components is relatively stable, and leading enterprises have maintained the first shipment for many years.
Photovoltaic power station is a power station with components as the main body and inverters and brackets as the supplements. This involves some sub-industries of photovoltaic equipment, such as photovoltaic glass, which has risen very well this year. Photovoltaic glass is a technology and capital-intensive industry, and the gross profit margin of leading companies is high. For example, inverters are also an important part of photovoltaic power plants, and leading companies have a solid position.
At present, many leading enterprises in photovoltaic industry have formed a vertically integrated industrial chain from upstream silicon wafers to downstream power stations to avoid demand mismatch, reduce costs and improve gross profit. With the development of marketization, the photovoltaic industry has gradually become clear and the competition pattern is stable. However, it is not a good way to put it in front of the photovoltaic faucet. We have seen the rise and fall of many leading enterprises. In the past 20 years, the photovoltaic industry has experienced rapid iteration, and the fundamental reason behind it is technology. In terms of single crystal and polycrystal, single crystal has complete structure and high power generation efficiency, but the previous production capacity was insufficient and the price was higher, while the polycrystal cost was lower and the efficiency was steadily improved, so the mainstream technical route of photovoltaic industry is polycrystal. However, in recent years, with the rapid change of technology, the cost disadvantage of single crystal has gradually narrowed, and the technological breakthrough of single crystal battery in PERC, double-sided battery and other fields has been faster, so its share has increased rapidly and its advantages have become more and more obvious. Therefore, the leading enterprises that choose the correct technical route, make continuous technological breakthroughs, improve power generation efficiency and reduce costs can really come out, both in the past and in the future.
4 Future investment opportunities
According to the CSI photovoltaic industry index data, as of February 23rd, the index return rate in the past year reached 1 15%. Li Wenbin, the proposed fund manager of Wanjia Strategic Development Industry, believes that the photovoltaic industry will face broad development space in the future. Domestically, according to the strategic goal of energy transformation and development in China, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption in China will reach 15% in 2020, 20% in 2030 and over 50% in 2050. In 2065,438+09, the goal of 65,438+05% in 2020 was completed ahead of schedule, so it was in 14.
From a global perspective, with the cost advantage further highlighted, it is estimated that there will be 450GW of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025. In terms of pricing model, it is expected that China will turn to the PPA model which is widely used in the world. However, to move from auxiliary power supply to main power supply, it is necessary to solve the natural properties of photovoltaic, and bring long-term sustainable development momentum to photovoltaic after matching with energy storage. In addition, from the perspective of valuation, the current valuation level of photovoltaic enterprises is about 40 times, which is relatively reasonable.
So generally speaking, the global photovoltaic market, including China, will basically enter the era of parity internet access in 20021,and the installed photovoltaic capacity will grow rapidly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with relatively stable industry competition pattern and reasonable valuation, among which the investment value of high-quality companies is outstanding.
In the past two decades, the photovoltaic industry has experienced ups and downs. We have experienced the situation that two ends are outside and subject to others, the era of high dependence on subsidies and cheating, the trade suppression of anti-dumping, and the gradual maturity of industrial policies, and cheap Internet access will become the norm. Clean energy is the general trend, space is open, and the future has arrived.