Current location - Trademark Inquiry Complete Network - Futures platform - Necessity of developing shale oil industry
Necessity of developing shale oil industry
1. Developing shale oil industry can form an important supplement to China's oil resources.

From 65438 to 0993, China became a net oil importer again. Since then, China's oil consumption has grown rapidly, while domestic crude oil production has grown slowly in the same period, and the gap between supply and demand has increased year by year. In 2007, China's dependence on foreign oil reached 50%, and in 2008 it reached 5 1%. According to the relevant information of the National Energy Administration, China's oil consumption will still increase at an annual rate of 3.5% before 2020, and it is expected to reach 5.2× 108t by 20 15 and 6.2× 108t by 2020. After that, the annual growth rate of oil consumption will slow down to about 1.8%, and it is expected to reach 7.4× 1.08t around 2030. In the same period, China's crude oil output increased by about 300× 104t every year, reaching 2.05× 108t around 20 15, reaching a peak of 2.2× 108t around 2020, and tending to be stable around 2030. It can be inferred that by 20 15, 2020 and 2030, the gap between oil supply and demand in China will be 3. 15× 108t, 4.00× 108t and 5.20× 108t respectively. In the absence of other alternative resources, it is internationally recognized that if a big country's dependence on foreign oil reaches a critical point of 70%, then the country's energy is not safe. Therefore, by 2030, the energy security situation in China will be very severe.

Fortunately, China has very rich oil shale resources to be developed. If the exploration of oil shale resources can be strengthened in the future, there will be a resource base for the large-scale development of shale oil industry in China. According to the forecast in Chapter 4, under the high-speed development scenario, the national shale oil production capacity will reach 800× 104t by 2020, which is equivalent to rebuilding two oil fields in North China (the output in 2008 was 434× 104t). By 2030, the national shale oil production capacity can reach 2000× 104t, which is equivalent to rebuilding half of Daqing Oilfield (the crude oil output in 2008 was 4020× 104t). Therefore, it is predicted that the shale oil production capacity in 2020 and 2030 is considerable. If oil is replaced, China's dependence on foreign oil can be reduced by 1.29% and 27 1% respectively, and the foreign exchange saved in that year (calculated by crude oil price of 80 dollars per barrel) is 4.48 billion dollars and 1 12 dollars respectively. Therefore, the development of shale oil industry can make an important supplement to the scarce oil resources in China.

Table 6- 1 Forecast of National Shale Refining Benefit in the Next 20 Years

2. The development of shale oil industry has obvious economic and social benefits.

Developing shale oil industry is of great significance for developing local economy and increasing employment opportunities. According to the present situation of shale oil industry in China, the per capita productivity of employees is181.82×104t, and the pre-tax profit is1500 ~ 2,000 yuan /t shale oil. Accordingly, it is estimated that by 2020 and 2030, the national shale oil industry can realize pre-tax profits of 65.438+0.20 ~ 65.438+0.6 billion yuan and 30 ~ 40 billion yuan respectively, and the accumulated pre-tax profits are 60 ~ 80 billion yuan and 270 ~ 360 billion yuan respectively. The number of employed people is 44,000 and 1 10000 respectively (Table 6- 1). Obviously, the economic and social benefits are very obvious.

Developing shale oil industry is an important direction of comprehensive utilization of coal mines, which is in line with the national industrial encouragement policy of "comprehensive utilization and turning waste into treasure". A few oil shale mines in China are associated with coal resources. In the process of coal mining, these oil shale resources are also mined as by-products. If it is not used, it will be piled up near the mine, which will not only waste resources, but also affect the local ecological environment, and even bring security risks due to spontaneous combustion. In addition to Fushun Mining Group's good use of oil shale resources, Yaojie Coal Mine in Gansu, Longkou Coal Mine in Shandong, Yanzhou Coal Mine in Heilongjiang and Dalianhe Coal Mine have all exploited a large number of oil shale resources in the production process, but failed to make good use of them. In recent years, these mines have formulated development plans for comprehensive utilization of oil shale resources, and some mines have begun to build shale refineries.

3. Developing shale oil industry is the best way to solve a large number of oil substitute resources.

Petroleum is not only a kind of energy, but also an important chemical raw material. China's oil consumption is mainly used in transportation, chemical fiber and chemical industry. Without the support of oil, the whole economic and social development is unimaginable, especially national defense. However, since the oil shortage occurred in 1993 China, the dependence on foreign countries has become higher and higher, reaching 50% in the last two years, and it is expected to reach about 70% in 2030. The international crude oil price fluctuates greatly, which seriously affects the stable social and economic development of oil importing countries. For example, the price of new york crude oil futures in the United States climbed from $35/barrel at the end of 2005 to $70/barrel at the end of March 2007, which doubled after 1 year and three months. From $70/barrel at the end of August 2007 to $65,438+047/barrel in July 2008, it took less than 65,438+0 years to double again. Since then, the price of crude oil has been falling all the way, reaching $33.87 per barrel in June 65438+February 19, 2008, and it recovered to its original shape in just five months. In 2008, due to rising prices, China paid 360 billion yuan more for imported oil. Importing a large amount of oil for a long time not only consumes high foreign exchange and increases the cost of enterprises, but also greatly increases the diplomatic cost and national defense expenditure. The fluctuation of international oil price will seriously affect the normal operation of domestic economy, which is more related to national security.

In order to ensure national energy security, China has vigorously organized the development of various new and renewable energy sources to solve the "bottleneck" of energy shortage and achieved gratifying results. However, renewable energy such as solar energy, wind energy and water energy cannot be directly converted into liquid fuel, let alone become chemical raw materials. Some biofuels that can replace gasoline and diesel cannot be widely promoted for the time being due to the objective conditions of a large population and a small population in China. In 2008, the national 100× 104t fuel alcohol production capacity has caused the national corn price increase and triggered the pork supply storm, so the government had to stop the fuel alcohol project based on grain under construction. Facts show that China can't use a large area of land to grow biofuels, as the United States and Brazil do, because of the small arable land per capita.

Where is the way out to solve a large number of oil alternative energy sources? We should take the road of diversification. We believe that shale oil is an optional and realistic alternative energy among many alternative energy sources. Compared with other alternative energy sources, shale oil has its own advantages: shale oil can be produced by heating, and its properties are similar to those of natural crude oil after upgrading, so it can be processed by existing refineries without building refineries; Oil shale is rich in resources and concentrated in minerals, which can be developed and produced mechanically and automatically on a large scale. Even some small mines can transport shale oil for centralized processing, which can replace a large number of petroleum products. The products after shale oil modification are similar to existing petroleum products, and there is no need to formulate new product standards or use petroleum products to transform existing machinery and equipment; Existing storage and transportation facilities and sales distribution systems can be used.

China is rich in oil shale resources. After decades of research and development, new breakthroughs have been made in resources, technology, environment, economy and other factors that restrict the development of oil shale industry. At present, the proven oil shale reserves in China have doubled, and the shale refining technology is mature. The environmental protection problem can be solved by increasing scientific and technological investment and policy regulation. The cost of shale refining is much lower than the international crude oil price. Developing oil shale industry is one of the best ways to solve a large number of oil alternative energy sources.

Shale oil is a realistic alternative energy source for oil. China can learn from the world's advanced technology, further research and develop processing technologies and complete sets of comprehensive utilization technologies that are more suitable for China's national conditions and oil shale characteristics, and build an oil shale industry with China characteristics.