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Futures breaking waves
A guide who rides the wind and waves! In June, due to the subsequent depression of the consumer market after the Dragon Boat Festival and the narrowing of the domestic aquaculture market, the market saw a downward trend in pig prices in June. However, after entering the middle of June, the pig price did not take the usual path, and the market "braved the wind and waves" rose. Especially after entering the middle and late June, domestic pig prices rose sharply. According to the analysis of pig price data, the domestic average pig price is in just five days. The price of pigs has risen to a new high. In the domestic north and south markets, the price of pigs has generally risen to the "9 prefix". What happened?

According to the analysis of pig price data, affected by the price increase of slaughter enterprises, on June 24th, the national standard average price of pigs rose to 17.7 1 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan from yesterday, up 7.7% in five days, reaching a new high, compared with1kloc-0/.74 yuan/kg at the end of March.

Specifically, in the seven pig producing areas in the north and south of China, and in the 28 markets monitored, the price of pigs was "red across the board", and most markets in the north and south rose by 0.2~0.6 yuan/kg! Among them, the average price of live pigs in the northern market and Northeast China rose to 17.75 ~ 17.9 yuan/kg, and some high-priced pig sources in Jilin and Liaoning rose to more than 9 yuan/kg.

The price of live pigs in North China increased by 0.2~0.3 yuan, and the average price of live pigs increased by 17.8 ~ 18.3 yuan/kg. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market, the price of pigs rose more than 9 yuan/kg.

The price of pigs in the south and southwest markets rose by 0.1~ in 0.3 yuan, and reached 16.85 yuan/kg in Sichuan and Chongqing.

The pig price in Yunnan-Guizhou region is maintained at 16.3~ 16.7 yuan/kg.

The quotations of slaughter enterprises in East China generally rose in 0.4 yuan, Shandong, Anhui, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, and the price of pigs rose to 18. 1 ~ 18.5 yuan/kg, breaking 9 yuan/kg in an all-round way.

Slaughtering enterprises in Central China quoted 17.6~ 17.95 yuan, and the market gradually rose to 18 yuan/kg.

South China's Guangdong and Guangxi markets rose, while Guangdong soared 19.3 yuan/kg!

It's June 24th, and the price of pigs has reached a new high. During the year, the pig price bottomed out and rebounded by more than 50%. Pig prices rose against the trend, and the average price of live pigs for slaughter reached 17.7 1 yuan/kg. At present, the average cost of fattening pigs is about 15.4 ~ 15.5 yuan/kg. At this stage, domestic.

According to industry insiders, this round of pig price increase is a superposition of multiple factors. On the one hand, the domestic pork purchasing and storage continues, and the purchasing and storage is generally "0 transactions", and the market is bullish; On the other hand, the slaughter performance at the breeding end was sluggish. Due to the shortage of piglets at the beginning of the year, the slaughter cycle of pigs was advanced in the first quarter, and the supply of pigs in the market was tight in the second quarter, and the weight of pigs was low. At this stage, there are fewer pigs with suitable weight at the breeding end, and the pressure of slaughter is weak! Superimposed, market speculation is heating up, and farmers have a strong feeling of "chasing high and selling low". With the support of multiple benefits, the price of pigs has risen steadily and the price has risen sharply!

At present, most of the domestic north-south markets have risen to the "9 prefix"! However, judging from the change of sow population, the highest sow population was 45.64 million at the end of June last year, and the lowest was 4 1.77 million in April this year. The productivity of sows has not been completely reduced, but due to the lack of staged slaughter, the price of pigs has risen against the trend. However, the increase obviously exceeded expectations, and the market showed an irrational rise! With the intensification of the game between supply and demand, the increase in the price of live pigs has limited boost to the price of pork, and the loss performance of slaughterhouses is outstanding. Some slaughterhouses have stopped mining one after another and have strong resistance to high-priced pig sources. With the further rise of domestic pig prices, the market's concerns about pig prices will gradually increase!

Personally, before mid-July, the breeding end was safe, the high-priced flight sentiment rebounded and superimposed, the market standard fertilizer spread was insufficient, the risk of big pigs pressing the fence increased, and the second fattening had the opportunity to flee, and the futures prices of domestic main pigs fell first. It is estimated that in the next 3~5 days, or so far, the price of pigs will rise, and the downside risk of the market will suddenly increase!

Ride the wind and waves! The price of pigs rose by 7.7% in five days, and most of them rose to "9 prefixes". What happened? What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!

# Today's national hog price #