The glitz has dissipated, and the decline of the metal market in the past six months has not only brought the metal price back to the level of a few years ago, but also greatly dealt a blow to market confidence. Out of pessimistic expectations for the future, investors became afraid. However, calmly, the metal market in 2009 is still full of many variables, so we might as well look for new hope in despair.
Throughout the whole year of 2008, with July as the dividing line between bull and bear, the metal market as a whole showed a trend of first rising and then restraining. In the first half of the year, copper and aluminum continued to be strong last year, starting from $6,700 and $2,400 respectively at the beginning of the year, and hitting record highs of $8,940/ton and $338 1 ton respectively in July. However, due to the full-scale outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the prices of copper and aluminum turned around and plummeted to the current US$ 2,850 and US$ 65,438 +0.540, resulting in aluminum throughout the year. And zinc, as early as 2007, entered the bear market ahead of schedule. Although it rebounded in 1 and February this year, it could not change the downward trend, and the price of zinc fell by 5 1% for the whole year.
In the process of falling prices, the balance between supply and demand in the metal market is also changing rapidly, from the state of short supply in 2006 and 2007 to an overall oversupply. According to the data of International Copper Research Group (ICSG), International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) and other related professional research institutions, the global surplus of refined copper increased by 67% from June to September, from 72,000 tons in the same period last year to 1.2 million tons, of which the surplus in September alone reached 49,000 tons. From June to September this year, the global aluminum supply exceeded10.83 million tons, greatly exceeding the surplus of 510.000 tons in the same period last year. Similarly, from June 5438 to September, the global zinc output was 1 1.2 million tons, and the imbalance between supply and demand further deepened.
Therefore, under the above-mentioned weak market situation and fundamental background, looking forward to the metal market in 2009, the situation does not seem optimistic. However, under the influence of government bailouts, the weakening of the US dollar exchange rate and economic recovery, there is no hope of recovery in the future.
Liu Xu, an analyst at China International Futures, said that from the historical bull-bear cycle analysis, the economy will generally peak three to four quarters before metals, and the bottom will be the leading metals and the stock market that bottomed out in one quarter. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the US government in June, 2008, 5438+065438+ 10, the US economy will "bottom out" in the first quarter of 2009, and will continue to experience negative growth in the first quarter of 2009, and it is expected to achieve moderate growth in the first half and second half of 2009. This means that the US economy will bottom out in the first quarter of 2009 in a short time. Based on this, the metal market is likely to bottom out in the second quarter of 2009, and the metal market may show a steady recovery trend in the second half of 2009.
Specific to each variety. Analysts said that China's 4 trillion investment plan mainly focused on railway infrastructure and power grid transformation. In theory, it will boost the demand for aluminum alloy materials and wires, so aluminum prices may go out of two waves of rebound next year. It is estimated that from the end of this year to the beginning of 2009, the aluminum price will fluctuate violently at the integer mark of 10000 yuan/ton, and then rebound after hitting the low point of the year. The location of the low point depends on the intensity of market production reduction, which is the only price supporting factor; However, after the Spring Festival, due to the detailed announcement of various policies and the arrival of the procurement season, the price will rebound. It is estimated that the rebound height is between1.2000 yuan/ton and1.3000 yuan/ton, and the relative high point is expected to appear in April and May. After the rebound, it falls back to the shock pattern and maintains the bottom shape; In the second half of the year, various economic policies will have certain effects, and aluminum prices may be supported to resume the upward trend.
In the zinc market, although the pressure on zinc price is great, considering that more than 50% of the smelting capacity in the zinc market is in negative cash flow at present, it means that more smelters may stop production or even go bankrupt in the later period, and China's purchasing and storage will also ease the pressure of excess metal, which will bring obvious support to zinc price in the later period. Since then, with the passage of time, a large number of new infrastructure construction in China will gradually show a pulling effect on the economy. It is estimated that the price of zinc will bottom out in the second quarter of 2009, and it will gradually improve in the second half of the year.
The copper with the best fundamentals before may be the weakest because of the deterioration of the imbalance between supply and demand. Analysts believe that the global copper market supply is still growing further, but the demand is severely impacted by the global economic slowdown, and the copper inventory will increase substantially next year, which will bring great downward pressure on the market. It is estimated that in the middle of 2009, the copper price will seek support at the level of $2,000, and may fall to17,000 yuan/ton in China. However, considering the important strategic reserve significance of copper, whether China will store a large amount of copper will also bring some uncertainty to the trend of copper prices next year.
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