Comprehensive analysis of world oil

Three global oil crises

The first crisis (1973): The fourth Middle East war broke out in October 1973. To attack Israel and its supporters, the largest member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced the right to price oil in December of that year and raised the price of crude oil from US$3.011 per barrel to US$10.651. This was a sudden increase in oil prices by twofold. More than twice as much, triggering the worst global economic crisis since World War II.

The three-year oil crisis has had a serious impact on the economies of developed countries.

During this crisis, the industrial production of the United States fell by 14%, that of Japan fell by more than 20%, and the economic growth of all industrialized countries slowed down significantly.

The second crisis (1978): At the end of 1978, the political situation in Iran, the world's second largest oil exporter, changed drastically. Iran's pro-American moderate King Pahlavi stepped down, triggering the second oil crisis. .

At this time, the Iran-Iraq war broke out, and global oil production was affected, plummeting from 5.8 million barrels per day to less than 1 million barrels per day.

With the sharp reduction in production, oil prices began to skyrocket in 1979, soaring from US$13 per barrel to US$34 in 1980.

This state lasted for more than half a year, and the crisis became a major reason for the overall recession of the Western economy in the late 1970s.

The third crisis (1990): After Iraq captured Kuwait in early August 1990, Iraq suffered international economic sanctions, which interrupted Iraq's crude oil supply, and international oil prices soared to a high of $42.

The economies of the United States and the United Kingdom accelerated into recession, and global GDP growth fell below 2% in 1991.

The International Energy Agency launched an emergency plan to put 2.5 million barrels of crude oil reserves on the market every day. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, also rapidly increased production, quickly stabilizing world oil prices.

In addition, international oil prices also skyrocketed in 2003. The reason was the violent conflict between Israel and Palestine and the tense situation in the Middle East, which caused oil prices to skyrocket.

Several oil crises have had a serious impact on the global economy.

——Compiled based on info.news.hc360 2004-06-1

The distribution of oil resources and the supply and demand relationship in the international oil market

Oil resources and water Resources occupy an extremely important position in the national economy and people's livelihood, and are indispensable resources for social development and human survival.

Oil and natural gas are important energy resources.

In modern civilized society, if there is no energy, all modern material civilization will also disappear.

Since the end of the Cold War, the world has faced the dual pressures of economic development and energy shortage.

With the rapid development of industry, growth of population and improvement of people's living standards, energy shortage has become a global problem, and energy security has attracted more and more countries' attention.

The regional distribution of the world's oil resources is unbalanced, which has triggered many international contradictions and conflicts.

From the perspective of oil resources, by the end of 2003, the proven oil reserves in various regions around the world were distributed. The proven reserves in the Middle East were 99.58 billion tons, accounting for 57.4% of the world's total proven reserves.

Mainly concentrated in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman, Qatar and Syria, the reserves of these countries reach 84.93 billion tons.

The region's oil production accounts for 30.4% of the world's total production.

The cumulative proven oil reserves in the northern region are 29.76 billion tons, accounting for 17.2% of the world's total proven reserves. Among them, Canada's reserves are 24.5 billion tons, second only to Saudi Arabia***, ranking first in the world Two.

In the former Soviet Union, the cumulative proven oil reserves of the CIS countries are 10.6 billion tons, accounting for 6.11% of the world's total proven reserves, and their oil production is 490 million tons, accounting for 1.45% of the world's total production. %.

Among them, Russia’s oil production ranks second in the world, second only to Saudi Arabia.

In addition, the proven oil reserves in the Asia-Pacific region are 5.24 billion tons, accounting for 1.5% of the world's total production; the African region is 11 billion tons, accounting for 6.6% of the world's total reserves; the proven oil reserves in South America are 13.4 billion tons, accounting for 7.7% of the world’s total proven reserves.

(See: //info.news.hc360 June 2, 2004.

) There is a serious imbalance between the world's oil consumption and the amount of oil resources. It has special strategic significance in national development, so the global competition for oil and gas resources has always been fierce.

For example, the proven oil reserves in North America, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific do not exceed 22% of the world's total, but their oil consumption accounts for nearly 80% of the world's total oil consumption. Therefore, the world's largest The United States, an oil consumer, says that two-thirds of its oil consumption depends on imports, 60% of which comes from the Middle East; 70% of the EU's oil consumption relies on imports. In addition to importing oil from the Middle East, the EU takes advantage of the fact that many African countries were once colonies of Britain and France. , has taken the lead in African oil development.

Western powers’ control and disputes over oil resources and markets continue to intensify, and resource strategies have become an important part of the geopolitical and economic strategies of great powers.

In order to enhance crisis management capabilities, major Western countries that have experienced oil crises have successively enacted legislation to ensure strategic reserves of oil.

For example, the United States has enacted the "Energy Policy and Conservation Act", Japan has the "Petroleum Reserve Act", Germany has the "Petroleum and Petroleum Products Reserve Act", and France has formulated the "58 Regulation on the Structure of Industrial Petroleum Reserves and Inventories" -Law No. 1106", which clearly stipulates the reserve objectives and scale.

*** Including reserves and private reserves, the oil reserves of the United States, Japan, Germany, and France are equivalent to 158 days, 169 days, 117 days, and 96 points of their country's oil consumption respectively.

China is accelerating the legislative work on strategic petroleum reserves and strives to achieve 180 days of safe consumption in China's petroleum reserves in a few years.

Oil and International Politics

It can be seen from the reality of international relations in recent decades that oil resources and water resources are the main factors in wars and conflicts between countries, especially those seeking to Control of oil resources has become one of the focuses of international struggle.

Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, the Gulf War, the Iraq War, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, civil wars in some African countries, Japan’s obstruction of the Sino-Russian “Antarctica Line” oil pipeline project, and the Nansha Islands issue involving China’s *** etc., there are profound resource factors behind them.

In the past half century, there have been more than 500 conflicts caused by water alone, more than 20 of which evolved into armed conflicts.

With the increasing shortage of oil and water resources, the restrictive role of energy on economic development will become more prominent, and the global battle for energy in various forms will also intensify.

New developments in the international oil market

(Global Times, Issue 915, December 29, 2004)

● International oil prices have risen sharply

In 2004, international oil prices continued to rise, arousing widespread concern around the world.

In early January this year, the price of crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was around US$32 per barrel. On October 25, the price of international crude oil futures actually reached US$55.67 per barrel, an increase of 73%!

The high price of crude oil has cast a shadow over the prospects of world economic development.

According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, every US$5 increase in oil prices will reduce global economic growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points.

High oil prices have had an impact on consumers, which has increased household energy bills and forced them to cut other expenses.

The continued rise in oil prices has also caused corporate costs to rise and profit margins to shrink, especially for companies in the aviation, automotive and other fields, and life has become even more difficult.

In the face of high oil prices, although Asia's economic growth has not slowed down significantly, the resulting inflationary pressure has become obvious, and the danger of stagflation lurks in the Asian economy.

● The disintegration of Yukos

In July 2004, Yukos, Russia’s second largest oil company, entered judicial proceedings for tax arrears.

So far, the Russian tax department has required Yukos to repay more than US$27.5 billion in taxes, and the company has only repaid US$3.9 billion.

As it concerns the security and interests of the international oil market, how to resolve Yukos’ huge debt has become the focus of world attention.

On February 19th, the little-known mysterious buyer Baikal Financial Group acquired Yukos’ “crown jewel” - Yugansk for 260.75 billion rubles (approximately US$9.3 billion). The 76.79% stake in the oil and gas company caused consternation among the outside world.

Only three days later, the state-owned Rosneft was confirmed to be the real buyer of Yugansk.

Russian experts believe that due to the disintegration of Yukos and the nationalization of Yugansk Petroleum and Gas Company, the Russian Communist Party has regained the management of the oil and gas field that was lost due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the privatization of state-owned enterprises. ability.

Comprehensive analysis of the current situation of the world oil market

From the perspective of the supply and demand distribution of oil resources, the word "imbalance" can reveal its fundamental characteristics.

It is precisely because of this imbalance that fundamentally leads to various international disputes and even wars arising from oil issues.

There are more and more wars and regional disputes caused by oil issues. For example, the United States launched military operations against Iraq on the pretext that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, which is a clear proof.

The range of oil price fluctuations caused by regional disputes and wars continues to increase.

Historically, oil prices (light sweet crude oil) reached a peak of US$55.17 per barrel on October 22, 2004.

With the continuous progress and development of human society, oil resources continue to be exhausted. In a few decades, the use of oil will become history.

The international oil market will be full of more variables in the future.