If you know the waste market, go to the waste house and I'll answer your question.

The reason why the price of steel rose at the end of the year is that black goods rose rapidly from 65438+February, the price of coke and iron ore reached a new high, and the price of imported iron ore with 62% grade returned to more than 150 USD/ton. This not only severely squeezed the profits of the steel industry, but also led to a sharp rise in steel costs, and steel mills and traders passively adjusted prices. Although there are some macro and industry benefits, there are still irrational behaviors in the market, mainly manifested in the skyrocketing of 1 1 from February 9, 65438. The price of imported iron ore rose by over 100 yuan/ton in three days, and the price of rebar rose by over 300 yuan/ton. Rebar 2 105 contract fell more than 200 yuan/ton in 65438+February 1 1, and the market price fluctuated greatly. The author believes that the steel market will face more complicated factors when it enters the end of June, and the operation of "winter storage" is more difficult.

The black market is hot this winter. The price of the main rebar futures contract in June 5438+February exceeded the price peak of 201February 4/7 after the structural reform of the supply side, and the previous price peak appeared on February 201kloc-0/after the financial crisis. The author believes that the main reasons for this phenomenon are as follows:

First, the scale of social financing has increased substantially. Before this year 1 1 month, the increase of social financing reached 33.9 1 trillion yuan, which was 8.33 trillion yuan higher than that in 20 19 (only 3.08 trillion yuan higher than that in 20 18); M2 (broad money supply) growth rate has returned to double digits since March; The growth rate of fixed assets investment and real estate investment in June 5438+ 10 reached new highs since April 20 15 and August 20 18 respectively.

Second, there is a strong demand for catching up with work. The COVID-19 epidemic shortened the construction time this year, suppressed the "three red lines" of the real estate industry, and the export exploded at the end of the year, and the winter epidemic reappeared, which greatly increased the demand for catching up with work. Last week, rebar inventory decreased by 352,654,380,000 tons, while rebar inventory increased for two consecutive weeks in the same period last year.

The third is cost-driven. The price of imported iron ore rose by more than 50% during the year, and now it has broken through the 1000 yuan/ton mark, setting a new high since the listing of 20 13. At the same time, the price of coke rose by 66.9% during the year, the second highest price since the listing of 20 1 1. The rapid rise in raw fuel prices has led to high steel costs.

Under the superposition of various factors, although the steel price rises seasonally, steel enterprises are not comfortable. The annual crude steel profit is only about 200 yuan/ton, less than half of last year's. For market participants, "winter storage" in this market is undoubtedly a challenge.

The author believes that whether to carry out "winter storage" needs to consider two points: one is to see whether steel enterprises can give a guarantee policy within the safety margin, and the other is to judge the steel market next spring. The author believes that the market fundamentals will be affected by the following factors next year:

First, it is estimated that the supply growth will reach 5%. The epidemic situation in COVID-19 this year has little impact on steel production. The annual crude steel output is likely to reach 65.438+0.5 billion tons, with a net increase of 20 million tons this year, and new capacity will be put into production next year. It is expected that the output of crude steel will increase next year.

Second, the competition in the raw material market will be more intense. With the increase of pig iron production, the tight supply of coke will continue. Next year, the world steel output will return to the positive growth channel with a high probability, and the iron ore competition will be more intense. The author believes that the only way to hedge is to let go of scrap imports.

Third, the international financial environment will be more complicated. The dust settled in the American election, the restructuring of world trade pattern, the intensification of geopolitical contradictions, the political relationship with major raw material suppliers, the recovery of foreign steel supply capacity, and the development trend of foreign epidemics will all have an impact on the domestic market.