At the beginning of the new year, the domestic welded pipe market is still in a downturn, and the shrinking demand has led to a continuous downturn in market transactions. The ups and downs of the market in the past two years have also greatly increased the risk awareness of traders, and the enthusiasm for hoarding goods in winter is obviously poor. Most products are passively converted into inventory in the pipe factory. Under pressure, most welded pipe production lines stop running, the year is approaching, and the noisy market is gradually calm.

12 In late February, due to the rapid rise of upstream steel prices such as ores and billets, the market prices of various steel products also rose rapidly. However, the price increase is difficult to be effectively supported by the trading volume, and the raw material market is gradually weakening: 1 month, the trading volume of rough goods falls, and the price fluctuates downward; The new round of North China strip price policy was introduced, and the settlement price of strip steel was slightly lower than the previous guidance, and the operation of raw material strip steel also showed some fatigue; Upstream manufacturers and agents are forced by inventory pressure to fine-tune the delivery price in time, and the weak consolidation situation is becoming increasingly clear.

1. From June to May, 5438+February, the domestic welded pipe output continued to grow at a high speed.

In May 438+February, the national welded pipe output was 2,882,600 tons, an increase of17,400 tons over the previous month, a record high, an increase of 15.26% year-on-year and an increase of 0.6 1% quarter-on-quarter. The steel content of 65438+February welded pipe is 4.46%.

By the end of 65438+February, the national cumulative production of welded pipes was 3 1029900 tons, far exceeding the annual output of last year, with an increase of 56 1.6 10000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 22. 10%. The national total steel output increased by 18.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of welded pipes was still significantly higher than the average growth rate of steel, indicating that the output of welded pipes still showed an excessive growth momentum in 2009.

Table1Monthly Output and Change of Welded Pipe in 2009

moon

In 2009

Monthly output/10,000 tons

Year-on-year quantity/ten thousand tons

Year-on-year growth rate/%

Chain volume/10,000 tons

Chain growth rate/%

1

144.04

2.3 1

1.63

-

-

2

174.42

42. 1 1

3 1.83

30.38

2 1.09

three

26 1.22

27.75

1 1.89

86.80

49.76

four

265.64

53.54

25.24

4.42

1.69

five

25 1.24

34. 12

15.7 1

- 14.40

-5.42

six

275.79

2 1.87

8.6 1

24.55

9.77

seven

260.30

53.50

25.87

- 15.49

-5.62

eight

283. 10

73.02

34.76

22.80

8.76

nine

275.77

85.75

45. 13

-7.33

-2.59

10

287.5 1

74.85

35.20

1 1.74

4.26

1 1

286.52

73.67

34.6 1

-0.99

-0.34

12

288.26

38. 16

15.26

1.74

0.6 1

total up to

3 102.99

56 1.6 1

22. 10

——

——

Figure1:Comparison of monthly output of welded pipes from 2006 to 2009.

It can be seen from the data in Figure 1 that although the welded pipe market has entered the off-season in June 5438+February, the demand has obviously shrunk, but the output still remains at a high level of more than 2.5 million tons. Since March, the monthly output of welded pipes in 2009 has reached more than 2.5 million tons, but the output in June 2008 was higher than this figure, which shows that the output of welded pipes increased rapidly in 2009.

Figure 2: Comparison of monthly cumulative output of welded pipes from 2006 to 2009.

Judging from the year-on-year growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of output in June 5438+February remained above 20%, the growth rate was below 10% in 2008 and between 10- 15% in 2007 (see Figure 2).

Through the investigation of production enterprises, the turnover of the pipe factory decreased obviously from June to February, 5438. However, due to the supply and marketing mode in Xie Chang, the pipe factory could only passively accept the raw materials of strip steel. With the obvious increase in the output of hot-rolled narrow strip steel, the output of pipe factory keeps increasing, which leads to a new high in the output of welded pipe in June 5438+February. However, near the end of the year, it is difficult to find a way to release the inventory pressure behind high production capacity.

Figure 3: Monthly trend chart of daily average output of welded pipe from 2006 to 2009.

From June 5438+ 10, it gradually entered the traditional off-season, but the output of welded pipes has been at a high level. 5438+ 10 June, the average daily output of welded pipes reached a record high of 95,500 tons. From a technical point of view, since April, the average daily output of welded pipes has exceeded 80,000 tons, and it has become a high accumulation trend in the second half of the year; The new production line of 20 10 will further expand the production capacity and may push the current production base to a new level.

Figure 4: Regional distribution map of the cumulative output of welded pipes in China in 2008/2009.

From the regional distribution of output, North China and East China occupy a large proportion of production capacity. Compared with last year, the proportion of output in North China increased significantly, from 45.57% to 53.44%, accounting for more than 50%, while the output base of welded pipes in North China was large, and the growth rate was higher than that in other regions, which indicated that the output growth in North China accounted for the vast majority in 2009. The proportion of output in East China and South China decreased slightly. On the whole, the proportion of output in North China and East China continues to rise, accounting for 80% of the national output, and the pattern distribution in other regions has not changed significantly compared with the same period last year.

2. The import and export volume of welded pipes continued to shrink from June to May.

The export volume of (1) 12 welded pipe decreased significantly year-on-year, but increased slightly from the previous month.

In June 5438+February, the total export volume of welded pipes in China was 2 1.55 million tons, a decrease of 2 1.26 million tons compared with the same month of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 49.67%, an increase of 0.63 million tons over the previous month and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.03%. Affected by the slow recovery of the global economy, the international demand for welded pipes continues to be sluggish, and the double-opposition lawsuits filed by countries and regions dominated by Europe and the United States against China have made the export situation of welded pipes more severe. According to statistics, in 2009, the country exported 2,530,500 tons of welded pipes, down 33.48% year-on-year.

Figure 5: Monthly statistics of welded pipe export in China from 2006 to 2009.

Judging from the performance of different periods in 2009, the cumulative export volume of welded pipes has been in a negative growth state since April, and 65438+February is no exception. Since July, the export volume of welded pipes in 2009 has decreased faster than that in 2008, which is not the same as the sharp increase in 2007. It is not difficult to see from the trend of Figure 6 that the export growth rate has basically dropped to the lowest level in history at this stage, and the bottom support effect may gradually increase.

Figure 6: Monthly cumulative export volume of welded pipes from 2007 to 2009 compared with the same period of last year.

Judging from the varieties of welded pipes exported, the export proportion of welded pipes for oil and gas pipelines was still less than 50% in 65438+February. From June 5438 to February, the country exported 96,200 tons of welded pipes for oil and gas pipelines, down 56.04% year-on-year and 15.43% month-on-month, accounting for 44.68% of the total export of welded pipes. The export of oil and gas drilling guide welded pipes was 0.05 million tons, down 99.57% year-on-year and 54.20% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for only 0.27% of the total export of welded pipes; Other welded pipe exports118600t, up 62.2 1% year-on-year and 26. 15% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 55.05% of the total welded pipe exports, which is not far from the oil and gas pipeline.

Fig. 7: Change of export ratio of welded pipe.

Compared with the cumulative export volume in 2009, the proportion of welded pipes in oil and gas pipelines decreased slightly. In 2009, the total export volume of welded pipes for oil and gas pipelines was1379,600 tons, down by 3 1.50% year-on-year, accounting for 54.52% of the total, with a slight increase year-on-year. Oil and gas drilling jacket welded pipe109,000 tons, down by 83.47% year-on-year, and the proportion dropped significantly from 17.34% in 2008 to 4.3 1%. Other welded pipes 1.04 1.9 million tons, down by 7.82% year-on-year, and the proportion increased from 2,975,438+0% in 2008 to 4 1. 1.7%. Comparing the welded pipe of oil and gas pipeline with other welded pipes, the export of welded pipe of oil and gas pipeline in June 5438+February dropped from last month, which was obviously backward in the whole year. The export volume of other welded pipes increased year-on-year for three consecutive months, which continued to threaten the leading position of welded pipes for oil and gas pipelines.

(2) In June 5438+February, the year-on-year decline of welded pipe imports slowed down.

Due to weak domestic demand and a serious surplus of domestic resources, compared with exports, the domestic demand for imported welded pipes in June 5438+February was still sluggish, but it improved year-on-year. In February, China imported 23,600 tons of welded pipes, down 45.45% year-on-year and up 57.94% month-on-month. In 2009, China imported 275,000 tons of welded pipes, a year-on-year decrease of 45.44%.

As can be seen from Figure 8 and Figure 9, the increase and change of welded pipe imports fluctuate obviously. Last year, the import of welded pipes plummeted in June 5438+February, but in contrast, the import of welded pipes increased slightly in the same period last year. Through the actual horizontal comparison, it is not difficult to see that the fluctuation of welded pipe imports from the second half of 2009 to 165438+ 10 is within the normal range. Judging from the cumulative year-on-year growth rate, there is a big gap between 2009 and 2008, which is just the opposite of the year-on-year growth rate in 2008, and most of them are in a state of decline.

Figure 8: Monthly statistics of welded pipe imports in China from 2006 to 2009.

Figure 9: The monthly cumulative import volume of welded pipes from 2007 to 2009 compared with the same period of last year.

Third, the apparent consumption growth rate of domestic welded pipes accelerated in 2009.

In 65438+February, the apparent consumption of welded pipes in China was 2,690,800 tons, up by 27 15% year-on-year, and the self-sufficiency rate was 107. 13%, of which the output was 2,882,600 tons and the net export was 2150,500 tons. In 2009, the cumulative apparent consumption of welded pipes nationwide was 28,774,400 tons, up 34.32% year-on-year, reaching the highest growth rate since 2004, of which the output was 31299,900 tons and the net export was 2,530,500 tons.

From the data point of view, apparent consumption has increased significantly, indicating that domestic demand is good or potential consumption capacity is high. However, through the understanding of various aspects and the analysis of the above output and import and export, the main reasons for the sharp increase in apparent consumption of welded pipes in 2009 are the sharp increase in output and the sharp decrease in net exports. According to the survey, a large part of the welded pipe products that have been produced at present are still in production enterprises and trading enterprises, and the actual digested terminal demand is far less than the superficial consumption figure.

Table 2: Production and consumption of welded pipes in China since 2000.

age

Domestic output

Import volume

volume of exports

Surface consumption

Growth rate%

2000

509

29.8

27.6

5 1 1.2

22.20

200 1

602

35.7

27.3

6 10.4

19.4 1

2002

70 1

84.9

28.0

757.9

24. 16

2003

1066

64.9

57.2

1073.7

4 1.67

2004

12 15

62.7

92.7

1 185.0

10.37

2005

1495

40.6

173.0

1362.6

14.99

2006

2 12 1

27.6

337.0

18 1 1.6

32.95

2007

236 1

23.7

463.0

192 1.7

6.08

2008

2398.76

50.40

380.40

2068.77

9.69

2009

As of February 65438

3 102.99

27.50

253.05

2877.44

34.32

Figure10: Comparison of monthly apparent consumption of welded pipes in China from 2007 to 2009.

In June 5438+February, the national self-sufficiency rate of welded pipes was 107. 13%, which was 0. 14 percentage points higher than that of last month, and was always lower than the average level of15.95% last year. The self-sufficiency rate continues to approach the value of 100%, indicating that the domestic resource demand and viability have been further developed. However, combined with the sluggish domestic market, it can be seen that poor export leads to a large number of resources hoarding in China, which brings great pressure to the domestic trade market.

Figure11:Comparison of domestic welded pipe production and apparent consumption in 2008-2009.

Summary of domestic welded pipe market in 5438+ 10 month

In 2009, the overall trend of the domestic welded pipe market was relatively flat, with a brief surge in the peak season, but most of the time it showed a pattern of low consolidation and shock bottoming, and June 5438+ 10 was no exception.

Near the end of the year, the domestic welded pipe market demand is further reduced. Due to the difficulty in activating the terminal market, the enthusiasm of downstream dealers for picking up goods continues to be sluggish. Affected by this, the shipping situation of welded pipe manufacturers in North China has further deteriorated, and the phenomenon of factory inventory accumulation has become more and more obvious. In addition, the prices of raw steel strip and billet are weak, and the price of welded pipe takes consolidation steps at 5438+ 10 in mid-June. However, the downward adjustment of the price did not play a cardiotonic role, and after entering the later stage, the market transaction still could not be released. It coincides with the new round of North China Strip Steel Conference, and the settlement price of 3,660 yuan/ton is enough to put welded pipe manufacturers in a dilemma: the pressure on continuous production funds is intensified, off-season transactions are blocked, and the increase in inventory leads to a decrease in profits; If maintenance is stopped, the market share will decrease.

Figure 12: Price trend chart of Beijing-Tianjin-Shanghai welded pipe (2008.12.01~ 2009.12.438+0)

As can be seen from Figure 13, compared with the end of February 1, the mainstream price of welded pipes in major cities in China showed a slight consolidation trend in June 1, with Guangzhou, which had the largest increase last month, falling by 50 yuan/ton, and Northeast China, which had a lower price in the previous period, rising by about 20 yuan/ton.

Figure13: price changes of welded pipes in major cities in China in February.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) February welded pipe market weak consolidation 20 10

After the last round of adjustment years ago, the performance of welded pipe market in February may be similar to that of 65438+ 10 in June. According to the survey, by the end of June, 5438+ 10, most welded pipe manufacturers in North China had stopped production, and market dealers all over the country took vacations in early February. Many factors indicate that the market is in a weak consolidation state:

(A) raw material prices weak operation, welded pipe cost fluctuations weakened.

According to the survey, the recent downward adjustment of the raw material market makes the market trend more pessimistic. Judging from the performance of domestic steel mills, the limited production of steel mills is more obvious at this stage. For the ore price, it means that if the purchase cost is not reduced to a reasonable level, the futures will not be purchased, and the spot reserve will be maintained at a low level as the year is approaching. Moreover, under the influence of the downturn in the domestic steel market, the price of ore has recently dropped by $ 3-4, and the quotation of major domestic ports has been lowered by 20-30 yuan. The transaction is still not smooth, so it is not difficult to see the weak trend of raw material prices. In addition, the overall performance of hot rolled strip in the domestic market is weak, with a significant decline. It is understood that except for the relatively stable southwest region, other regions have declined to varying degrees, with the decline in East China and South China being more obvious. The weak operation of raw material market weakens the fluctuation of welded pipe cost, and it is expected that the market will remain weak in the future, and some high-priced resources may fall back and consolidate.

(2) The market turnover continued to shrink, and the downstream wait-and-see mood remained strong.

Since 2008, affected by the economic crisis, the domestic welded pipe market has experienced several ups and downs together with the steel market. Judging from the recent market performance, the performance of the pipe factory is relatively firm, the market price reduction expectation has not been realized, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is still strong. Traders' confidence in the market after the Spring Festival is increasingly shaken. Judging from the inventory changes of mainstream merchants in the second half of 2009, most traders tend to go into battle lightly and improvise.

February will be the lightest winter season in 20 10. According to traders, most businesses will take vacations to prepare for festivals in the near future, which will directly lead to the release of factory capacity in February. With the accumulation of inventory resources, the financial pressure of related enterprises will increase, but with cost support, it is difficult to adjust the price significantly out of the control of the cost line, which has little impact on the upstream variety market of welded pipes.

Generally speaking, the domestic welded pipe market experienced a long period of low fluctuation in 2009, and the risks have been fully released. 20 10, the welded pipe market as a whole runs above the low price of 1.