The latest news shows that although the multi-party talks on Ukrainian grain exports have not yet made positive progress, global food prices have fallen widely this week because countries such as Europe and the United States have indicated that they will no longer restrict Russian grain exports.
In terms of supply, Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world, exporting 42.49 million tons of wheat in 20021year, accounting for 2 1.99% of the global wheat export, while Ukraine exported 20.36 million tons, accounting for 10.54%.
Recently, however, it has also been found that Russian wheat export tariffs are constantly increasing. At present, the latest wheat export tax is $0/42 per ton/kloc, which is much higher than less than $0/00 at the end of last year.
At the same time, it is reported that after natural gas, Russia may gradually change the national export tax on cereals and sunflower seeds from US dollars to rubles.
It is reported that western countries have imposed all-round sanctions on Russia's financial system, including freezing the foreign exchange assets of the Russian central bank, which prompted Russia to announce that natural gas payments to unfriendly countries will be settled in rubles.
Subsequently, the Russian ruble rose strongly, reaching a seven-year high.
More news also shows that although Russia's exports of bulk commodities, including grain, have fallen sharply since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, some low-income countries have considered returning to the Russian grain export market over time.
Including Egypt, Afghanistan and other countries.
Considering Russia's position in the global commodity export market, if this problem is not solved, it will eventually have an impact on the trading system with the US dollar as the settlement standard.
In addition, the barley in southern Ukraine has been harvested at present, but there are not enough buyers to buy it.
At present, Ukrainian grain is still exported through the ports of Rennie and Izmir on the Danube and the railways and automobiles on the western border, which leads to the increase of the cost of transporting it to Romanian and Turkish ports to 90- 120 USD/ton.
At the same time, the recent quotation of European barley purchased by Tunisia is as high as US$ 387.9/ton, and the barley purchased by Jordan is as high as US$ 407/ton.
In other aspects, the Group of Seven will discuss global food security in the near future and may restrict the development of biofuels to ease the pressure of rising food prices.
It is reported that since the beginning of this year, affected by the skyrocketing global energy prices, major food exporting countries, including the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia and Malaysia, have introduced policies or are planning to increase the share of biofuels to help reduce fuel prices, which has further affected the global food supply.
In the domestic market, in recent years, domestic food prices have also shown an overall downward trend.
According to official reports, the wheat harvest in China has been completed. According to the news, this year, for the first time, the central government implemented the food safety assessment with the responsibility of the party and the government, expanded the scale of incentive funds for major grain-producing counties, distributed 654.38+020.5 billion yuan of farmland fertility protection subsidies in advance, and successively allocated 30 billion yuan of one-time subsidies to actual grain farmers to continue to raise the minimum purchase price of wheat and rice, forming a strong synergy of attaching importance to agriculture and grasping grain.
Especially in view of the late sowing of winter wheat last year, the central government arranged more than 7 billion yuan to support wheat production, ensuring a bumper wheat harvest this year and continuing to optimize wheat quality. The area of high-quality special wheat in short supply in the market increased to 38.5%, an increase of 65,438 0.2 percentage points over the previous year.
From the market point of view, with the recent increase in the market volume of wheat, the price has also shown a trend of continuous high downward.
According to the latest data, the minimum purchase price of large flour enterprises in the main producing areas has fallen below 1.55 yuan/kg, and all high-end areas have fallen back to 1.6 yuan.
Among them, Jinsha River in Hebei reported today 1.565 yuan/kg, Yihai Pumai in Dezhou 1.565 yuan/kg, and Zhengzhou Grain Storage 1.55 yuan/kg.
However, with the recent decline in wheat prices, it is reported that some feed enterprises are prepared to purchase wheat again, instead of corn, because this year's wheat quality is generally better and the price is similar, which has better substitution benefits.
The corn market, after a wave of rising some time ago, also fell again at the weekend, and the mainstream price returned to the position below 1.5 yuan, mainly because the demand of feed enterprises was less than expected.
It is reported that corn traders who hoard grain at high prices are currently facing a dilemma, and the prospect of continuing to hoard grain is worrying. If you cash in a ton now, you will lose at least 70- 100 yuan/ton.
In addition, following China's approval to import Brazilian corn recently, it is reported that Brazil is expected to export nearly 4 million tons of corn to China next year, which is enough to make up for the gap left by Ukrainian corn position.
The data shows that Ukraine is the main source country of corn imports in China in recent years, but since May this year, the number of arrivals in Hong Kong has started to drop sharply.
According to the news from Brazil, the second season corn is being harvested in Brazil. Brazil's corn is expected to have a bumper harvest this year, after the severe yield reduction caused by frost and drought last year.
A video on social media shows that Cargill stores newly harvested corn in the open air in a department in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reflecting the rapid harvest of corn in the second season.
In addition, 142 companies in Myanmar recently submitted letters of intent to export corn to China, hoping to expand the export of agricultural products to China.
In addition, under the background that the corn market is facing the sluggish demand for aquaculture, a similar situation has appeared in the soybean meal market.
It is reported that the current domestic commodity soybean meal inventory increased by 14% compared with the previous week, reaching 109 million tons, more than three times the level at the end of March. In addition, the global soybean price drop caused the Dalian soybean meal futures price to drop by nearly 6% this week, the biggest one-day drop since 438+03 in February, 1965.
At the same time, according to the data of China Customs, in addition to the sharp drop in soybean imports in March, soybean imports increased by 27. 18% in April, and continued to increase by 19.73% in May.
But in fact, in Rizhao, a major soybean processing center in China, the current loss per ton of soybeans is 345 yuan.