The widening oil price difference between the United States and Brazil actually reflects the fundamental difference in crude oil supply between the United States and other parts of the world. US crude oil exports hit a new high.
Previously, the price difference between the United States and Bulgaria was once reduced to $4, because the pursuit of crude oil exports in the United States led to the expansion of American oil exports. In June, US crude oil production once exceeded 3 million barrels per day, and 25% of its exports went to China. The expansion of demand has led to the rise of oil prices in the United States.
Canadian crude oil supply interrupted
At the same time, there was a power outage in Canada's oil sands mine and a leak in an oil pipeline, which reduced Canada's crude oil exports to the United States by 300,000 barrels a day. Because Canadian crude oil finally flows to Cushing crude oil trading center in Oklahoma, USA, and eventually becomes a part of WTI crude oil pricing, low-priced Canadian crude oil will dilute the price of WTI to a certain extent, thus making the price of American crude oil significantly lower than Brent crude oil.
The United States urges OPEC to increase crude oil production.
At the same time, the United States urged the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase crude oil production. Since June 22nd, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plans to increase production by 6.5438+0.8 million barrels per day, among which Saudi Arabia plans to increase production from 6.5438+0.03 million barrels per day in May to 6.5438+0.8 million barrels per day in a short time. At the same time, Russia and the United Arab Emirates indicated that they would increase crude oil production by 200,000 barrels per day, which means that even if Iran is sanctioned, it will be reduced by 654.38+000 barrels.
It is reported that Saudi Arabia's peak idle capacity is 2 million barrels per day. In order to curb the rise in oil prices, the United States hopes that Saudi Arabia can put all its production capacity into production, which will worry the market or lead to overproduction.
The five countries protect Iran from sanctions, and the expected output gap in the market may be limited.
However, as the United States asked countries to stop importing Iranian crude oil and increase imports of American oil, major crude oil importing countries began to gradually reduce their purchases of Iranian crude oil. In addition to the traditional allies of the United States, Japan and South Korea, India, the world's second largest importer of crude oil, also began to reduce imports, making a large number of Iranian crude oil unsalable.
However, Europe, China and other five countries are also actively negotiating with Iran to ensure that Iran's crude oil exports can be guaranteed to the greatest extent, thus preserving the Iranian nuclear deal's achievements. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries actively expanded its output, which means that the crude oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is enough to make up for Iran's crude oil gap, and even has a slight surplus, which further narrows the price difference between the two oils.
Recently, the oil price difference between the United States and Brazil has widened again because of the recovery of Canadian crude oil supply and the sharp decline of American oil exports.
Recently, the spread between the United States and the United States has begun to widen. The recovery of Canadian crude oil supply is the most direct factor, and the trade war launched by the United States against the world is the key reason for the decline of American oil exports. The data shows that since the end of June, US crude oil exports have recorded a decline for three consecutive weeks, from the highest export volume of more than 3 million barrels per day in June to1.466,5438+0.000 barrels per day.
Bottlenecks in oil pipelines have led to a large number of discounted sales of American oil.
In addition, the bottleneck of oil pipeline also hinders the export of American crude oil. At present, the transportation capacity of oil pipeline is close to the limit. With the US crude oil output exceeding 65,438+0,654,380,000 barrels per day, more shale oil is stranded in the country of origin, especially in Mirande. It is reported that the price of crude oil in Mirande is 20 dollars/barrel lower than the average price of WTI, which enables a large number of refineries to buy American crude oil at a lower price, which in turn leads to a further decline in the price of American crude oil.
The price difference is too small, which makes the transportation cost unable to offset and reduces the attractiveness of American oil.
In addition, because the price difference between American oil and oil distribution was once reduced to $4/barrel, because the price difference between American oil and oil distribution could not offset the transportation cost from the United States, the attractiveness of American crude oil was further reduced, which was the further reason for the decline of American oil exports, thus depressing the price of American oil.
The United States has increased sanctions against Iran, which has increased the market's concerns about Iran's crude oil exports.
As for Brent crude oil, with Trump's request to reduce Iran's crude oil imports to zero before165438+1October 4, otherwise it will be sanctioned by the United States, which makes the market in an uproar and increases Iran's expectation of production reduction.
Morgan Stanley said that after raising its forecast for Iranian crude oil losses, it is expected that the crude oil deficit will reach 600,000 barrels per day in the next six months.
The World Bank predicts that the impact of US sanctions on Iranian exports will reduce Iranian crude oil exports by 1.65438+ 10,000 barrels per day before the end of the year. This figure is higher than its forecast of 700,000 barrels per day before 20 19.
The short-term trend of INE crude oil futures in China is stronger than that in the United States and Brazil.
From the intraday trend, the overall trend of INE crude oil futures in China is stronger than that in the United States and Brazil. This is driven by two factors. The pricing of China crude oil futures is closer to the oil distribution.
First of all, China crude oil futures are priced with reference to the pricing mechanism of Oman crude oil, which is generally similar to the trend of Bruente crude oil. Recently, it was reported that Saudi Arabia is preparing to change the pricing formula of crude oil sold to Asia for the first time in decades, which will be the first time that Saudi Arabia has changed its official pricing since 1980.
This pricing formula will be based on the average monthly price of Oman crude oil listed on Dubai Commercial Exchange and the average cash price of Dubai evaluated by Platts Energy Information, thus replacing the average price of Oman crude oil and Dubai crude oil previously evaluated by Platts Energy.
The reason for this adjustment is that the Oman crude oil contract launched in Dubai Commercial Exchange in 2007 is the most liquid, but the shipment of Oman crude oil during Platts' price evaluation period is very small, which cannot reflect the demand of Asian market, so this change makes China crude oil futures closer to the oil distribution trend.
With the recent strong oil distribution, the price of China crude oil futures has also risen.
The strength of the US dollar led to the weakening of non-US currencies, and the price of RMB-denominated crude oil rose.
The second factor is that the strength of the US dollar leads to the weakening of non-US currencies. Because oil distribution is also calculated in dollars, the recent trend of RMB is short, which makes the price of crude oil denominated in RMB rise, which is the key reason why oil prices are stronger than those in the United States and Bulgaria.