1. Actively promote interest rate marketization and reform the foreign exchange management system. In order to promote China's interest rate marketization reform and promote economic opening to the outside world, the People's Bank of China decided to implement a new foreign currency interest rate management system from September 2 1.
2 actively promote the construction of personal credit system, the implementation of savings real-name registration system.
3. Encourage commercial banks to innovate financial business varieties.
4. Strengthen credit policy guidance and guide the flow of funds.
5. Actively promote the construction of the money market.
6. Improve rural financial services, support rural economic development, and guide and standardize folk credit.
In the second half of 2002, China's economy began to enter a new economic cycle. With the severe SARS epidemic and the outbreak of the Iraqi war, the People's Bank of China timely adjusted the monetary policy operation in April 2003, strengthened the pre-adjustment, started the central bank to recover liquidity, and raised the deposit reserve ratio from 6% to 7% in September, which achieved good results. In that year, the growth rate of GDP increased from 9. 1% in the previous year to 10%, and the growth rate of CPI stabilized at 1.2%. In 2007, the economy showed signs of overheating and the pressure of rising prices increased. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of GDP further increased from 1 1.6% in 2006 to 12.2%, and the increase rate of CPI increased from 1.5% in 2006 to 3.2%. The time change of monetary policy from "steady" to "moderately tight" and then to "tight". From the third quarter of 2007, monetary policy began to tighten, and continued to tighten in the fourth quarter. In the whole year, the deposit reserve ratio was raised by 5.5 percentage points 10 times, and the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans was raised six times. Among them, the one-year deposit interest rate was raised by 1.62 percentage points to 4. 14%, and the one-year loan interest rate was raised by 1.35 percentage points to 7.47%. Relevant measures have effectively controlled the inflation situation, and the year-on-year increase of CPI began to fall after reaching a high point in February 2008.
In 2008, the situation at home and abroad gradually changed. Serious natural disasters, such as the Wenchuan earthquake, occurred in China, and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States intensified in the world. In mid-September, it deteriorated sharply into a once-in-a-century international financial crisis. In response to changes in the situation, China's macro-policy has shifted from "double prevention" to "one guarantee and one control" and then to "flexibility and prudence", and the monetary policy has been adjusted in a timely manner since July 2008. First, reduce the hedging force in the open market, stop issuing 3-year central bank bills one after another, reduce the frequency of issuing 1 year and 3-month central bank bills, guide the interest rate of issuing central bank bills to decline appropriately, and ensure liquidity supply. Second, in September and June, 5438+00, the benchmark interest rate was lowered three times in a row, and the deposit reserve ratio was lowered twice, releasing the signal of maintaining economic growth and stabilizing market expectations. Third, the restrictions on the credit planning of commercial banks have been cancelled. Fourth, adhere to differential treatment, maintain pressure, and encourage financial institutions to increase loans for disaster area reconstruction, "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and small and medium-sized enterprises. The fifth is to expand the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans and support residents to buy ordinary self-occupied housing and improved ordinary housing for the first time.
Results: The effect of monetary policy regulation gradually appeared. Money and credit grew steadily, liquidity in the banking system was abundant, and the financial industry was running smoothly. The credit structure was further optimized, and credit support for disaster areas, agriculture, rural areas and small and medium-sized enterprises was gradually increased. In the first three quarters of 2008, Sichuan and Gansu provinces, which were seriously affected by the earthquake disaster, increased their loans by 2 1 and 4 1 billion yuan, an increase of 56.6 billion yuan year-on-year and 48.4 billion yuan over the previous year. Agricultural loans increased by 365.438+0.88 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+0.29 billion yuan. Some financial institutions have set up special credit departments for small and medium-sized enterprises to carry out pilot work. At present, it is generally reflected that the pilot has achieved good results and is being gradually promoted.
At present, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in accordance with the deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and the requirements of Scientific Outlook on Development. Adjust monetary policy operations in a timely and appropriate manner according to changes in the situation, ensure stable growth of money and credit and sufficient liquidity of the financial system, promote steady and rapid economic growth, support the expansion of domestic demand, maintain currency stability and financial stability, and increase financial support for economic growth. First, according to the changes in the situation, various response plans were launched in time to ensure the stable operation of the economy and finance, strengthen international cooperation, and cope with the uncertain impact of the financial crisis. The second is to ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system and provide liquidity support to financial institutions in a timely manner. The third is to promote the steady growth of the total amount of money and credit, and increase the support of bank credit for economic growth. Fourth, strengthen window guidance and policy guidance and strive to optimize the credit structure. The fifth is to further develop the financing function of the bond market and broaden the financing channels of enterprises. Sixth, closely monitor international capital flows and deepen the reform of the foreign exchange management system.
In 2008, we will implement a prudent fiscal policy and a tight monetary policy. Strengthen and improve macro-control, adhere to differential treatment, maintain pressure, do not engage in a one-size-fits-all approach, and do not engage in sudden braking. Preventing the overall price level from rising too fast is the main task of macro-control in 2008. Nine measures have been taken this year to prevent the overall price level from rising too fast. Grasp the timing and intensity of government price adjustment to prevent prices from rising in turn; Adhere to the "rice bag" governor responsibility system and the "vegetable basket" mayor responsibility system.
Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences: In 2008, the task of preventing the overall price level from rising was arduous. It is mentioned in the report that it is necessary to grasp the timing and intensity of government price adjustment. In this regard, the government should not interfere too much in pricing. As long as the price relationship is straightened out, the price increase can naturally be controlled. If you interfere with the pricing power of enterprises too much, it will easily lead to the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand.
Elasticity is definitely the main tone in 2008. At present, the basic situation of China's economic overheating has not changed, and the credit of commercial banks is still growing explosively, which will deepen the degree of China's economic overheating, make the financial market more liquid, further push up the stock market and property market prices, and push up inflation. The government can only further implement a tight monetary policy, otherwise, China's economy will face more difficulties and problems in 2008.
Li Yining, member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and economist: As the fundamentals of China's economic operation have not changed much at present, China's real economic growth rate will still exceed 8% despite unfavorable factors at home and abroad. I think 8% can't stop in the end, because the economic operation has its inertia. Now it has been higher than the standard of 10% for several years. After one year, I think 10% can still be achieved.
If the foreign trade surplus is expected to increase in 2007, then there are two unexpected things in 2007. The first thing is that domestic pork prices will rise so fast; The second thing is that the subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the American credit crisis will be so serious. It is these two unexpected and unexpected events that tested the central bank's ability to regulate monetary policy in 2007, which was the year when the central bank used monetary policy most frequently. At the end of the year, the Central Economic Conference decided to "tighten" monetary policy, which means that monetary policy will still play a leading role in macro-control next year.
Deposit reserve-tightening is rare in the world.
Hmm. How interesting