The financial crisis was caused by some of the smartest people in the world. These people all have strong science backgrounds and are very good at mathematics and imagination. They have nothing to do all day long after they are full. I started to tinker with how to create complex and difficult-to-understand financial derivatives. From a game theory perspective, many of these products are zero-sum game products, but they have the ability to exist under the transformation of financial analysts. The value of Warrant, which has been booming in the Chinese stock market in recent years, and Zero Cost Collar and Accumulator (transliteration: I kill you later), which have recently surfaced due to huge losses, can be analyzed from a philosophical perspective. The existence of these financial derivatives is reasonable. The existence of these financial derivatives has been improved by financial engineering and has certain value from a certain perspective. However, just like Buffett's "financial weapons of mass destruction" at the beginning of this century, the market needs them, but only This is required on the premise that they correctly exert their original design principles. For example, the functions of futures are mainly price discovery and hedging.
In response to the crisis, China faces four major problems:
First, although China has launched a four trillion plan, there are “Ten National Plans”, “Nine Financial Plans”, and “National Thirty Plans”. "Article" series of measures, the key now is whether the macroeconomic policy of stimulating and expanding aggregate demand in 2009, especially the first half of the year, can take effect quickly? Judging from the data released in the first quarter, GDP growth rate was 6.1%, mainly due to the stimulus of 4 trillion investment. Since there is already a lot of investment in the first quarter, if we want to maintain 8%, we must increase investment in the second half of the year, and the annual investment will definitely exceed 4 trillion.
Second, can structural adjustment be effectively integrated into this anti-crisis operation and can it be in place? If it is not in place, it may not be difficult to boost aggregate demand and it can be increased, but in the end it will repeat the story of the past and still do menial work. China's manufacturing industry is still producing a large number of low value-added products in the past. Whether China can introduce something clear about structural adjustment like Obama did and use structural adjustment as the main driving force to boost domestic demand is a key question.
Third, the problems that China may encounter during the crisis. The situation faced by China under its anti-crisis measures is exactly the opposite of that of the United States. In the United States, the economic system affects the real economic sector. In China, it is due to external demand problems, problems with the new Labor Contract Law, and perhaps even problems with our macroeconomic policies before September 2008. In China, it is the real economic sector that has problems first, and the financial sector has problems first. Except for the stock market, other sectors are in good condition. Therefore, the problems encountered in China are opposite to those in the United States. The real economy may affect the financial system.
Fourth, the issue of enthusiasm of commercial banks. Many years ago, China engaged in the development of the western region, and later revitalized the old industrial base in the northeast. The results of these two major strategies were very unsatisfactory. In fact, the responsibility does not lie with the central government. The central government is active and the local governments are also active. However, we must see the things behind these two major developments. The five major banking systems of Industry, Agriculture, China, Construction, and Communications, which control the vast majority of the country's monetary and financial resources, rank the western region at the bottom in the internal rating, and classify many regions in the Northeast as credit-rated D and E-class regions. Just invest in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Therefore, the key to China's expansion of domestic demand lies in how to get banks, which control most of the monetary resources, to take action. With the introduction of the central government's policy to revitalize the old Northeast industrial base, a large amount of funds are bound to be invested in the Northeast. With the stimulation of funds, the stock market should have a good increase.
The global financial system is currently facing tremendous pressure. The subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in April 2007 has plunged the global economy into recession. Citigroup believes that the global economy will enter a state of contraction in 2009. The depth, scope and speed of the adjustment and recovery of the financial industry remain uncertain factors affecting the market. "Even if the pace of economic contraction is likely to slow down in the second half of 2009, after the economy recovers as expected in 2010, the economic growth rate may still hover at a low level."
Obviously, Citigroup's view on the global economy The situation is more pessimistic. Regarding the forecast of global economic growth and inflation rates, Citi believes that global GDP growth will be 0.5% in 2009 and return to 2.6% in 2010; global inflation will be 2.5% in 2009 and 2.6% in 2010. Among them, the regions with negative GDP growth in 2009 were the United States, Europe, Japan, and Singapore.
China will still maintain its leading position in GDP growth rate in 2009. Citigroup Investment Research believes that not only is there no problem in maintaining the GDP growth rate of 8, but it will also be slightly higher, reaching 8.2%.
Huang Yiping, chief economist of Citi Asia Pacific, believes: "We believe that the Chinese government has the ability to achieve its target growth." He said, "The proportion of fiscal revenue and state-owned enterprise profits in GDP remains high, and Most fixed asset investment and bank assets are still controlled by the state, which shows that despite decades of economic reforms, the state’s ability to promote economic growth has not been weakened.”
Although China’s GDP can maintain 8. However, the decline in corporate profits is unavoidable, which means that GDP may have a soft landing, but corporate profits will only have a hard landing. China encountered deflation twice in 1998-1999 and in 2002. The reasons for deflation were weak exports and overproduction.
The current weakening of external demand is more serious than at any time in the past 10 years, so the problems of overcapacity and deflation caused by reduced exports are even more severe in the current economic downturn. Deflation is bad news for corporate profits. Regarding the judgment of China's stock market, the factors that determine the rise and fall of stock prices are more complex. Although there will certainly be negative impacts such as poor income, relatively sufficient liquidity, better-than-expected economic growth, cheap valuations and stable risk appetite may be major positive factors, and the market may begin to recover in the first half of this year.
Despite the dual impact of macroeconomic regulation and the subprime mortgage crisis, China's A-share market continued its downward trend at the end of 2007 in 2008, but it remained relatively active and began to pick up in November. With the implementation of various expansionary macro-control policies and the emergence of their effects, investor confidence has gradually recovered, and the market is expected to start a volatile upward trend in 2009.
Basic characteristics of the operation of the A-share market in 2008
Looking at the trend of China's A-share market in 2008, we can clearly see the following important characteristics:
First, the stock index dropped sharply and stabilized at the end of the year.
After the Shanghai Composite Index reached a record high of 6124 points on October 16, 2007, China's stock market entered a downward stage, and this trend further extended in 2008. However, the factors affecting the market decline during this period were more complex. In addition to the market's own adjustment requirements, the government's moderately tight macroeconomic control policies to prevent economic overheating gave investors expectations of a future economic cooling. At the same time, regulatory authorities A series of measures have also been taken to curb the rise in the stock market. Under the combined influence of these factors, the A-share market generally declined in 2008. The Shanghai Composite Index fell from 5261 points at the end of 2007 to 1820.81 points at the end of 2008, a drop of 65.39%. During this time, on October 28, 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index reached its lowest point of the year at 1,625 points. In 2008, among the world's major stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell second only to Russia's MICEX Index, ranking second in decline. It was much higher than the United States, which was in the midst of the financial crisis, and the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan, which were deeply affected by the financial crisis. Therefore, this round of decline in the A-share market cannot be fully explained by the international financial crisis alone. If the US Dow Jones Index fell by 29.42% as a basis, assuming that the Shanghai Composite Index also fell by the same amount on the basis of 5261 points in 2008, then the absolute number of its decline is 1547.79 points, and the year-end closing point of the Shanghai Composite Index should be at More than 3700 points. Therefore, it can be said that the A-share market in 2008 was seriously oversold.
Affected by the decline in the A-share market, financing and trading in China's securities market also declined compared with 2007. In 2008, domestic financing decreased by 438.658 billion yuan, a drop of 56.80%; among which, the financing amount of A-share IPOs decreased from 459.062 billion yuan in 2007 to 103.652 billion yuan in 2008, a decrease of 355.41 billion yuan, a drop of 77.42%. Compared with 2007, the number of trading days in 2008 increased by 2 days, but the value of stock transactions dropped from 46,055.62 billion yuan to 26,711.26 billion yuan (a decrease of 42%), and the number of stock transactions decreased from 3,640.376 billion shares to 2,413.138 billion shares ( (a drop of 33.71%), these declines exceed those of any year since 2000.
The overall downward market trend in 2008 brought relatively serious investment losses to investors, but this round of market trends is quite different from the continuous downward trend from 2001 to 2004. First of all, the market in 2008 is, to a certain extent, a rational correction of the explosive market in 2006-2007. In the first 10 months of 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 126%, reaching a maximum of more than 6,000 points. This kind of rising speed is very rare in the global stock market and is also rare in the history of the Chinese stock market. Although the economic boom at home and abroad was relatively good that year, the share-trading reform was basically completed, and the market liquidity was abundant, no matter how major changes occurred in the fundamentals, it was not enough to support the stock market rising at such a speed, and it was even more difficult to support the continued rise of the stock index. Downward adjustments are inevitable. Secondly, the market downturn in 2008 did not lead to a record low in trading volume, and the market still maintained a certain level of activity. The average weekly trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2008 was 35.16 billion shares, lower than the 52.61 billion shares in 2007, but higher than 2005 (19.05 billion shares) and 2006 (23.01 billion shares). It was the second highest weekly average trading volume in the history of the Chinese stock market. High vintage. Active trading shows that the market adjustment has not fundamentally shaken investor confidence, and there is still a large amount of buying on the market to accept the selling by risk-averse investors. This is an important reason for the future recovery of the stock market. Third, the low point of the stock market correction in 2008 was close to the level at the end of 2006, and the results of the stock market rise in 2006 were not seriously lost. If we exclude the falsely high index caused by the explosive stock market market in 2007, then the end of the market adjustment in November 2008 can be regarded as the further development of the bull market in 2006.
Second, the trend of the A-share market is significantly affected by the European and American stock markets.
The global stock market turmoil triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis had an increasingly obvious impact on the Chinese stock market in the second half of 2008. In 2008, the trend of European and American stock markets had an increasing impact on the trend of China's A-share market (the inherent mechanism and mechanism of this influence are worthy of further exploration). With the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis and the successive introduction of rescue measures by European and American governments, the volatility of European and American stock markets has increased. The subprime mortgage crisis and the expectation of economic recession have gradually strengthened the psychological impact on stock market investors. Since September 2008, the A-share market has gradually followed the trend of European and American stock markets. This has become an important reason why the A-share stock index has continued to decline after falling by 60% since the beginning of the year. Follow the trend until the end of the year and then gradually change. In fact, after the A-share market made adjustments in advance that were much larger than those in the European and American markets, the valuations of some listed companies have been low. At this time, the market continues to follow the decline of European and American stock markets, lacking fundamental basis.
Third, the market size continues to expand.
In 2008, the number and share capital size of listed companies in China's stock market increased to varying degrees. The number of listed companies increased from 1,530 in 2007 to 1,604, and the total market share capital increased from 1.42 trillion shares to 1.89 trillion shares, of which the number of listed and circulating shares increased from 494.6 billion shares to 700 billion shares. At the end of the year, the total market value of the stock market was 12.4 trillion yuan, and the circulating market value was 4.7 trillion yuan. Although lower than the level of 2007, it is still higher than the level of 2006, which was the second largest financing year for the Chinese stock market after 2007. On the other hand, the lifting of restricted shares resulting from the share-trading reform and the gradual lifting of the lock-in on new stock listings in 2007 have increased the total amount of listed and circulating equity in the market. According to statistics from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, by the end of 2008, there were a total of 468.2 billion restricted shares resulting from the shareholding reform, of which 136.4 billion shares had been lifted, accounting for 29.1%. In the future, the restricted shares will be gradually lifted, thereby increasing the number of listed and tradable shares. Changes in the capital structure will not only expand the size of the stock market's circulation, but will also have a further impact on the stock prices of listed companies.
Fourth, the market’s average price-to-earnings ratio dropped to a historical low.
The rapid correction of stock indexes eliminated the artificially high components of the 2007 market surge. The average price-to-earnings ratio of stocks fell to 12.86 times at the end of October 2008, the lowest point since 1996. Since then, as the market has recovered, the price-to-earnings ratio has rebounded. By February 16, 2009, the market's average price-to-earnings ratio reached 17.74 times. The price-to-earnings ratio is not the only reliable basis for stock valuation, but it can be found from this indicator that stock market investors have relatively negative expectations for the profitability of listed companies. However, if we carefully examine and comparatively analyze the financial status of listed companies, it is difficult to conclude that the profitability of listed companies will suffer an extreme deterioration across the board. After the plunge, the stock price may be undervalued. The market's average price-to-earnings ratio fell from 66 times to 13 times in just one year. What is the reason for this extraordinary change? Could it be that the external environment has undergone major changes in this year, so that investors must significantly lower their price? Do all listed companies have profit expectations? By analyzing the financial status of listed companies in the past three years, we found that the financial status of listed companies has not generally deteriorated. In 2006, the main business income of listed companies was 5.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. In 2007, due to the concentrated listing of large-cap stocks, this indicator quickly reached 7.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.9%. The main operating income of listed companies in each quarter of 2008 remained basically stable, indicating that the total market volume index was less affected by the issuance of new shares. The main operating income of each quarter was between 2.6 and 2.9 trillion yuan. Operating profits have declined quarter by quarter, from 302.8 billion yuan in the first quarter to 244 billion yuan in the third quarter, indicating that the profitability of listed companies has indeed shown a downward trend, but the decline in profits of listed companies is limited, and overall, various There is still a certain growth in financial indicators compared with 2007. The main revenue, operating profit and total profit in the first three quarters of 2008 have exceeded or been close to the level of the whole year of 2007. It is certain that the total profit of listed companies in 2008 will exceed that in 2007, but the growth rate will be narrowed. Therefore, it can be said that changes in the fundamentals of listed companies do not support a significant reduction in the price-to-earnings ratio, and the stock prices of a considerable number of listed companies may be seriously undervalued.
Fifth, investor confidence remains stable.
The stock market fell sharply in 2008. Although it had a great impact on investor confidence and some investors made the choice to leave the market, what is different from the previous bear market is that this time the market The pullback did not completely dampen the enthusiasm of new investors. In 2008, the total number of newly opened A-share, B-share and fund accounts reached 16.64 million. Although it was lower than the level in 2007, it was still equivalent to three times that of 2006. Historically, there is a following relationship between the number of newly opened accounts and changes in stock indexes. In years when the stock index falls, the number of new accounts will decrease, and in years when the stock index rises, new accounts will increase. This follow-up effect was particularly obvious in 2007. That year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 96.7%, and the number of newly opened accounts soared from 5.38 million in 2006 to 60.57 million. It can be seen that the following relationship between the number of new accounts and the stock index still exists in 2008.
As the stock index gradually fell back, the number of newly opened accounts also steadily decreased, but it still maintained a relatively high absolute level. After the stock market stabilized in November, the number of new accounts opened in December increased rapidly from 777,000 in November to 1.087 million.
Of course, the number of new accounts opened by investors does not necessarily mean a net increase in the total amount of funds entering the stock market. During a stock market decline, while new investors enter the market, a large number of old investors may leave the market. Although there is a lack of direct data to illustrate the true situation of capital inflows and outflows in the stock market in 2008, the monthly investor position report released by China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation can reflect this trend to a certain extent. As can be seen from Figure 7, according to the company's statistics, the number of A-share holding accounts increased steadily from 34.32 million in June 2007 to 47.89 million in July 2008. Since then, the number of holding accounts has declined, but has remained at 4,700 There are more than 10,000 accounts, and the proportion of position accounts in all accounts remains at about 40%. Although the increase in the number of holding accounts cannot mean an absolute increase in the amount of funds entering the stock market, it can at least show that the number of investors entering the stock market is growing, and investors holding positions still have considerable financial strength. The stock market rebounded in November and December 2008. At this time, the total number of investors holding positions has not increased significantly, indicating that this round of rebound is mainly caused by existing investors continuing to increase investment. The early stage of the market can basically be defined as a "self-rescue" rebound. Investors' loss tolerance and regeneration capacity are important indicators for examining the maturity of a market. The fact that the market rebounded in the second half of the year when the number of investors in China's A-share market was basically stable shows that the existing investor groups in the A-share market Investment capabilities can already support the stable operation of the market during the downturn, and the investor group is becoming increasingly mature.
2009 Stock Market Trend Outlook
2009 is a critical year for the Chinese economy to overcome the adverse effects of the international financial crisis and maintain stable economic growth. Developed economies are unlikely to recover from the crisis in the short term. Faced with the adverse economic situation, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have taken a series of powerful measures to expand domestic demand and create conditions for the healthy development of the national economy. This year's macroeconomic trends will have a greater impact on the capital market than in the past. At the same time, remaining institutional flaws and new reform measures will continue to affect market operations from different perspectives.
Macroeconomic factors. In terms of the international economy, the financial crisis has had a profound impact on the real economy of developed economies. In 2008, the cumulative GDP of the United States fell by 0.2% year-on-year; in the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 0.6% year-on-year, and Japan's GDP fell by 2.1% year-on-year. In December, the industrial output of the United States fell by 7.8% year-on-year, and that of the European Union fell by 12.7%. The OECD comprehensive leading indicator, which represents the economic prosperity of developed economies, continued its continuous downward trend since the beginning of the year and dropped to 92.9, down 1.1 from the previous month and 1.1 from the previous year. It fell by 8.2 over the same period. Commodity prices continue to decline. As of February 13, 2009, the front-month crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange has dropped to US$34.44 per barrel, and the prices of raw materials such as copper and steel are also hovering at low levels. The World Bank predicts that the economic growth rate of developed countries will be -0.1% in 2009 and will return to 2% in 2010; while the economic growth rates of developing countries will be 4.5% and 6.1% respectively, of which China's is 7.5% and 8.5%. .
China's economy has also been impacted by the financial crisis, with economic growth declining quarter by quarter. In the fourth quarter, the economic growth rate was as low as 6.8%, and the annual economic growth was 9.0% year-on-year. Industry grew by 12.9% for the whole year, with growth of only 5.4% and 5.7% in November and December. In the first 11 months, industrial enterprises above designated size across the country achieved profits of 2.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 4.9%. In January 2009, the ex-factory price of industrial products fell by 3.3%, showing signs of shrinking domestic consumption and investment demand. The slowdown in macroeconomic growth will directly affect the profitability of listed companies. It is expected that a considerable number of listed companies will experience declining profits or even losses in the fourth quarter of 2008, thus dragging down the profitability of the whole year. Beginning at the end of 2008, the state's 4 trillion investment plan to stimulate the economy was launched one after another, and the national revitalization plan for pillar industries such as steel, automobiles, textiles, and equipment manufacturing was introduced, creating conditions for maintaining steady economic growth in 2009. Active fiscal policy and loose monetary policy will help the operating conditions of listed companies, but overall the profit growth expectations of listed companies in 2009 should be appropriately lowered.
About financial factors. Since for China, the impact of the international financial crisis and macro-tightening was mainly reflected in the real economy and had a relatively small impact on the banking system, China's banking system still showed strong credit granting capabilities in 2008. In 2008, the domestic and foreign currency credit balance of financial institutions increased from 27.8 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to 32 trillion yuan at the end of the year. At the same time, corporate deposits and residents' savings deposits also maintained a certain level of growth. At the end of the year, the balance of corporate deposits was 16.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.1%, and the balance of residents' savings deposits was 2.22 billion yuan, an increase of 26.1%.
Under the situation of large-scale deleveraging and credit contraction in the banking system of developed countries, the Chinese banking system can ensure a certain growth in credit scale and alleviate the financial difficulties of enterprises under adverse conditions, which reflects the long-term sound operation of the Chinese banking system and the national macroeconomic At the same time, the growth of deposits of enterprises and residents has provided funds for them to successfully survive the economic adjustment period. Of course, generally speaking, too loose funding may lead to asset price bubbles, but as China's real estate market and stock market have already entered a period of adjustment, it is unlikely that domestic asset prices will surge again this year.
About policy factors. Overcoming the impact of the financial crisis, fully expanding domestic demand and maintaining growth are the primary goals of the country's macroeconomic regulation in 2009. Active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies will continue for some time. As far as the capital market is concerned, ensuring the stable operation of the market should be the main goal of management in 2009, and various reform measures and the launch of new financial products must be consistent with this goal. Against this background, management will be more cautious about the launch of GEM, stock index futures and margin trading systems, thereby reducing the possibility of major adjustments in the capital market at the institutional level in 2009.
The possible trend of the A-share market in 2009. In 2008, the decline in China's stock market far exceeded that of countries in Europe and the United States that were severely affected by the financial crisis. At the same time, the fundamentals of China's economy did not undergo fundamental changes. From this, it can be judged that the A-share market is seriously oversold. After September 2008, with the continuous reduction of the benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans, the annual return rate of hundreds of stocks with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 5 times in the A-share market is roughly 8-10 times that of a one-year deposit. This means that the A-share market already has important investment value. Once upon a time, after the stock market rose sharply in 2006 (especially 2007), some people lamented with regret that the good time to enter the market in 2005 was no longer in this life. However, in the face of the market in late 2008, it can be found that under the best conditions, When the investment opportunity comes, many investors are still waiting on the sidelines, waiting for the so-called bottom to appear. In fact, the so-called bottom of a stock market decline can often only be discovered after looking back after the stock market rises; even if a bottom is formed during the stock market operation, the stocks that can be traded at this bottom are extremely limited, and not everyone can buy them. Therefore, even institutional investors who hope to buy stocks at the bottom often fail to do so, let alone individual investors. Since the A-share market is "severely oversold", in 2009 it has the inherent requirement to "make up for the increase" when it is oversold against the background of loosening macroeconomic policies and loosening stock market policies. If the real economy rebounds in the second half of 2009, then this "compensatory increase" may continue to start a new round of upward trend. Therefore, the overall trend of the A-share market in 2009 is upward.