Will go up. Because: the food crisis spreads like a plague. Following the global price increase of wheat, corn and soybean last year, the rice price in Southeast Asia has also staged a "somersault" posture this year, with a three-fold increase in March-April. It is unstable without food. Social unrest occurred in dozens of countries, people took to the streets, and the credibility of the government was tested.

Climate problems, drought, grain reserves in some countries.

Health, and the occupation of cultivated land by the so-called newly industrialized countries, this general analysis is powerless and fails to grasp the key point of the first food crisis in 2 1 century. So far, there is no clear evidence that the disaster situation in grain-producing countries such as Australia is in the worst state in history. The decline of grain reserves and the increase of industrial land are a gradual process. How can food prices be so crazy in a year?

This is indeed a "price crisis". In the short term, the price fluctuates violently, which has nothing to do with the real relationship between supply and demand. Anyone who has experienced the ups and downs of the stock market will probably understand that the "price signal" is false-it is just speculation and has little to do with the fundamentals of the real economy, at least not obvious. So who is stirring the global food market? What is the origin of hype? What is the strategic purpose of their crazy hype?

Since it is a price crisis, we should investigate the source of grain pricing power. The global commodity futures market dominated by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is a barometer of global food prices. In this big bull market of resource products, agricultural products are just another "doll" manipulated by large speculative capital after oil. Those real market "prophets", such as Buffett and Rogers, and the huge "hot money" behind them were laid out here two years ago or even earlier. Last year, after the "subprime mortgage" crisis broke out in the United States, funds fleeing from the mortgage market also poured in, thus creating a rare surge in food prices in history.

The US government's "Bioenergy Plan" provides a source of "hype". Corn-to-oil is a good substitute for ethanol and gasoline, but it is questioned because of its low efficiency and environmental problems. The plan itself caused a worldwide food shortage. Some analysts said that in 2006, the United States invested 42 million tons of corn to produce ethanol, which was enough to meet the food consumption of 654.38+35 billion people for a whole year according to the global average food consumption level. According to the new energy law passed by the United States last year, in 2022, the production of 654.38+0.5 billion gallons of ethanol in the United States needs 654.38+0.8 million tons of corn, enough for 580 million people to eat for one year.

Everything is in harmony. Corn is used for refining, but the supply is expected to be insufficient and the price will soar. Subsequently, the prices of agricultural products such as wheat and soybeans soared. Speculative capital makes waves, and the four transnational grain merchants, referred to as "ABCD", are "middlemen" who monopolize 80% of the world's grain trading volume, and they earn a lot of money. At the same time, ordinary people in ordinary countries are trapped by rising food prices, and famine breaks out in poor countries that rely entirely on the international market for food. Fundamentally speaking, "it's not that there is no food in the market, but that ordinary people can't afford it", which is the dirty "cars in rich countries compete with people in poor countries for rations" plan.

The price of rice is only half a beat slower. Southeast Asia is the main rice producing area and exporting place in the world. Thailand exports about 6.5438+million tons every year, and India and Vietnam export about 5 million tons every year. India cannot achieve self-sufficiency in wheat. It imports wheat and exports rice. The price of wheat soared last year, which was upside down with the price of rice. India subsequently suspended rice exports. But Vietnam's export volume is certain, and this heavy burden is passed on to Thailand. Thailand's rice price has risen rapidly, and the international rice price has soared accordingly.

The United States is the largest agricultural country in the world, and it has a lot of fallow land. While other late-developing countries desperately occupy their own cultivated land to develop their industries, thus producing cheap consumer goods for export to the United States, the United States has reduced food exports and raised food prices. People can criticize the governments of hungry countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America for dereliction of duty, clumsiness and stupidity, but has anyone pointed out that in this distorted international food production and pricing system, those who benefit from it have fulfilled a little responsibility and obligation?

A good market economy should not be like this. The current food crisis is a wealth plunder that rich countries pass on the economic crisis to poor countries through unreasonable "international rules". It's not a bloody war, but the result may be more cruel than bloodshed.