produced? |? Car and Wheel

Senior Editor? |? Gao Xiaoyu

22 is a year destined to go down in history. The global epidemic is raging, more than 4 countries have declared a state of emergency, the price of crude oil has fallen, and the US stock market has blown out four times. The global economy is facing a major test. It seems that the whole world is quiet, but it is restless and shrouded in the shadow of the epidemic.

for many tire enterprises, 22 is extremely difficult. Many car companies and tire companies have announced the closure of factories, foreign trade customers have collectively withdrawn their orders, and natural rubber has been snapped up. What will happen to tire prices?

more than 1 factories of p>14 car companies shut down

In today's global world, once a company shuts down, it will inevitably affect the upstream and downstream enterprises that have supply relations with it. Not long ago, Xiaobang reported that many foreign tire companies were affected by the epidemic, and they shut down tire factories one after another, and the number of closures reached hundreds.

Due to the epidemic in COVID-19, not only tire companies are affected, but also many foreign car companies are affected by the epidemic. According to incomplete statistics, at present, 14 car companies have stopped more than 1 factories. According to the research of the Federation, this is the most serious production interruption in the past 1 years. Details are as shown in the figure:

Foreign trade customers collectively withdraw orders

Since Covid-19 swept across China, the government has adopted powerful control measures to freeze the whole of China. The economy stopped in an instant, enterprises stopped production, and the epidemic was completely controlled in two months.

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in January and February, domestic rubber tire exports reached 76, tons, down 13.7% year-on-year; The export value totaled 12.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%. Among them, there were 6.47 million new pneumatic rubber tires, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%.

With the control of domestic epidemic situation, enterprises are in full swing to resume production, and China's economy is slowly restarting. Foreign trade enterprises have ushered in a wave of small climax of orders, and many enterprises are worried that they are short of manpower and work overtime to catch orders.

according to Zhuo Chuang information monitoring data, as of last week, the operating rate of domestic all-steel and semi-steel tires recovered to 63.72% and 62.9% respectively. In March 219, the operating rates of domestic all-steel and semi-steel tires were 74.72% and 7.55% respectively.

however, you never know! When the epidemic situation in China was excellent, the overseas epidemic suddenly broke out. Since mid-March, some customers have cancelled orders or postponed shipments, and foreign trade enterprises are facing the double impact of shrinking supply chain and demand.

Many tires in China are directly exported to foreign countries. However, due to the suspension of production by foreign car companies, the export situation of tires in China is directly affected. In the future, there may be a wave of returning orders in China tire market, which is a problem that some tire companies need to focus on.

However, China is a big tire producer, and its tire consumption is limited. Coupled with the epidemic situation, although the domestic economy is slowly recovering, it takes some time to digest the tires before. What changes will happen to the tire industry under the tire market environment of oversupply?

snapping up natural rubber in China

As the main raw material for tire manufacturing, the sales volume of natural rubber can directly reflect the activity of the tire market.

on March 23rd, the contract NR23 of No.2 rubber futures of Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center was successfully delivered. The delivery amount is about 15 million yuan (unilaterally), and the settlement price of delivery is 868 yuan/ton, which is 1.52% lower than the opening price of 97 yuan/ton on August 12, 219. The delivery volume was 17,256.96 tons, up by 234.57% month-on-month. The increase in delivery volume was mainly due to the orderly resumption of work by various tire enterprises with the improvement of the China epidemic.

No.2 rubber is the main rubber used by tire enterprises, and the first tire enterprise representative appeared in this delivery.

what is the influence of the change of automobile enterprises and natural rubber on the change of tire price?

due to the epidemic, the global economy is undergoing a great test, and so is the tire industry. Rubber raw materials, as the upstream industry of tires, and car companies, as the downstream industry of tires, have suffered a lot under the epidemic, so what is the impact on the tire industry?

1. The closure of automobile enterprises will affect the export of tires, and the export volume is expected to decline by 3%

As a downstream enterprise of tires, the output and sales volume of automobile industry directly affect the development of tire industry. With the spread of foreign epidemic, car companies have closed their factories one after another, and some countries have taken measures such as closing cities, which has seriously affected China's tire exports and caused the factors affecting tire exports to shift from the supply side to the demand side.

Duan Xueqing, a rubber analyst at Jinlianchuang, said: "Under the epidemic situation, the port cargo transportation was blocked and the tire export business was affected." In addition, under the influence of the epidemic, the economic situation in the United States, Europe and other places where domestic tires are mainly exported is not good, and some cities have taken measures to close the city, which has caused the consumer demand to drop again and will have a second impact on domestic tire exports.

according to Zhuo Chuang information, in the second quarter of this year, domestic tire production decreased by about 12% year-on-year, and export volume decreased by about 3%.

2. The domestic sales market has become a battleground for enterprises.

With the development of the epidemic, at present, more than 4 countries around the world have declared a state of emergency, and foreign countries have taken measures such as closing cities, resulting in people not going out, fewer vehicles and less tire consumption. In the future, the domestic market will be a necessary place for tire enterprises to compete for.

In March, several tire companies issued price increase notices

Faced with the current market conditions, some tire companies still issued price increase notices, mostly because of the greatly increased cost of supplying raw materials for tire companies and the arrival of employees.

notice of kenda rubber: starting from April 1st, the price of inner and outer tires for bicycles, electric cars and motorcycles will increase by 8%-1%.

Sichuan Yuanxing Rubber Notice: The tire price will be increased from April 1st, with the price increase range of 5%-1%.

notice of Hengfeng tire: customers who made advance payment and made order arrangement before March 17th (inclusive) will still follow the old price list. The new price list was officially implemented after March 18th (inclusive), with an increase of 3 points.

In addition to some domestic tire companies, Pirelli, Michelin, Goodyear and Sumitomo Rubber also plan to increase tire prices in overseas markets in the near future, with an increase of about 5%.

Xiao Bang said

For the tire industry, the closure of factories by upstream car companies has a great impact on some tire companies exported abroad. After being shut down by domestic epidemic, they finally stepped up production on the right track. Unexpectedly, they were severely hit by the closure of overseas car companies, which was a big blow to tire companies.

The export of tires has fallen sharply, but a large number of tires still exist. How to digest the tire inventory is the primary problem that tire enterprises need to solve.

on the one hand, upstream car companies stopped production, on the other hand, natural rubber was snapped up, and snapping up natural rubber at low prices had a direct impact on tire costs. However, there are still some tires that have announced plans to start raising prices on April 1. As far as the current situation is concerned, it is still a big problem whether the price increase of enterprises can be realized.

what do you think of the future tire price development? Welcome to leave a message online.

This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.