1. The spread is bullish, and the current spread is negative, that is, the basis is positive, which means that the spot price is higher than the futures price. Generally speaking, if the futures price is higher than the spot price, the spot has an upward trend, and vice versa. However, it should be noted that futures need to be delivered. If the delivery month approaches and the basis is large, then the futures price may be covered by the spot price. If the spot price is high and the futures price is low, then the futures price needs to rise. The fundamental reason lies in the problem of hedging.

2. Term spread refers to the premium points on the corresponding index, and the early warning function of the spot market can be expressed in many ways, among which the relatively simple and effective observation period refers to the premium points on the corresponding index, or term spread. In order to avoid too frequent fluctuations, we can judge the average spot price difference, which can be relatively smooth.

3. When the market is good, it is mainly positive, and when it falls, it is mainly negative. The price difference is usually within plus or minus 20 points. When the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 2500 points last year, the spot spread was still within this range. However, when the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 2500 points in late June last year165438+1October and began to accelerate its rise, the spot price spread soared rapidly. When the Shanghai Composite Index reached 2900 points in early February, the spot spread once exceeded 100 points, equivalent to about 3% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. This unusual spread indicates that. The Shanghai Composite Index continued to rise 1 1 day in the early period, but the moving average of the spot spread in the middle period continued to fall, even showing a negative value, which seemed a bit unexpected. In the five trading days last week, the closing discount of the futures index has appeared twice. Even if the closing price of the futures index rose by 13 points last Friday, it only appeared in the last two minutes, and the spot spread throughout the day has been in a discounted state.

1. Stock premium rate:

Stock premium rate generally refers to the premium rate of stock block trading. When the premium rate of block trade is negative, the transaction price of block trade is lower than the current price. It is bad news that shareholders or institutional investors are not optimistic about stocks and are eager to sell them at a price lower than the current price, which will lead to a large number of investors selling in the market and accelerate the decline of stock prices. The lower the premium rate of block trade, the stronger its negative signal, the greater the probability of individual stocks falling, the higher the premium rate of block trade, the stronger its bullish signal and the greater the probability of individual stocks rising. There will also be a positive premium rate in block trading, that is, the transaction price of block trading is higher than the current price, indicating that shareholders or institutional investors are more optimistic about the stock and are eager to buy it at a price higher than that of the day. This is a bullish news and will attract market retail investors to follow suit.