The Shanghai Composite Index closed with its biggest decline in three weeks. In early trading, the index was unable to stand at the 4000-point integer mark, but it accelerated down in the afternoon, and the 30-day and 20-day moving averages fell one after another. Today's stock index plunge is attributed to the failure of short-term RRR interest rate cut expectations, the cooling of the concept of state-owned enterprise reform and other factors, and it is believed that the range fluctuation pattern of the stock market needs to be broken.

1, the concept of state-owned enterprises has cooled down

After the recent surge, the concept stocks of state-owned enterprises fell to a limit, which hit the popularity. The theme of state-owned enterprises should be a long-term slow theme, and excessive short-term rise will also bring resistance to reform. The main driving force of this rebound is the theme of state-owned enterprise reform. At present, there seems to be signs of cooling down, and investors think that the existing policies are not enough to support the stock market upward. The sharp drop in hot topics in the previous period may be related to the lower-than-expected reform plan of state-owned enterprises.

2. Short-term RRR cut expectations failed.

Before July, the decline in foreign exchange holdings hit a record high, and the market originally expected RRR to cut interest rates soon. However, the central bank repurchased or reduced the probability of RRR interest rate cuts during the month, which led to this positive expectation.

The expectation of RMB exchange rate depreciation, the rebound of house prices and CPI will reduce the strength and effect of the central bank's monetary policy relaxation in the future. Interest rate cuts and RRR will further strengthen the expectation of RMB depreciation, accelerate capital outflow and damage liquidity.

3. Brokerage securities lending restarted.

After the resumption of securities trading, the market is worried that there may be strong short selling, which will have an impact on investor sentiment. The resumption of securities lending by some brokers will have a certain impact on the market in the short term, because after market adjustment, investors' psychology is still relatively fragile.

44,000 point pressure

The market itself is expected to have a pressure of 4000 points. After trying 4000 points in the morning, there will be short-term profit-taking pressure. Short-term speculative funds may still fluctuate at 3500-4000 points after fleeing the Shanghai Composite Index.

Off-site funds did not enter, and it is still a game of on-site funds. The market is still in the range of 3500-4200 points, and it is normal to fall back after approaching the upper rail.

Since the stock market is also a relatively weak market, if there is a discount in the futures market, it will converge in a way that the spot decline is greater than the futures.

5. Investors' mentality is unstable.

In early trading, the market was maintained by the rescue force, but the market sentiment was still unstable. Today's decline is also a psychological reaction. Recently, semi-annual reports of commercial banks have been released one after another. The semi-annual report shows that the growth rate of bank net profit has slowed down and the trend of bad debts has further formed. The market will be more worried about the rising financial risks in China, and the risk appetite will be restrained.