Everything is a cycle. I can locate it from the cycle and use it as a reference for the market trend; the market trend is the result of the operation of human nature, and human nature will not change, so the historical trend It can be used as a reference for current trends.

Everything is a cycle. I can locate it from the cycle and use it as a reference for market trends; market trends are the result of cyclical economic background, national policies and human operations. If the cyclical background Similarly, human nature does not change, and historical trends can be used as a reference for today's trends.

?My structural analysis is composed as follows

Chapter 1, using cycle research, positioning under the same cycle nesting background, and using the performance of commodities in historical cycles to refer to the future of commodities The trend serves as a reference and guidance for the general trend of commodities and its future trend.

Chapter 2, based on the future trend, narrow down to the performance of commodities touching and breaking through the operation warning line on the daily line in history, to analyze the performance and characteristics of touching and breaking through the operation warning line.

Chapter 3: After holding the position, market response plan.

Chapter 1, using cycle research, positioning in the context of the same cycle nesting, using the performance of commodities in historical cycles to refer to the future trend of commodities, as a reference and guidance for the general trend of commodities and their approximate future trends. . ?

?1. Use cycles for positioning. The same cycle stage is a similar economic background, and the cycle is used to locate a similar time background stage. ? Use cycles for positioning. Because cycle is the biggest economic background, in the same cycle stage, the economic background must be similar.

The cycle is the result of various factors, including the participation of big capital, the participation of the public, and the influence of national policies. Therefore, the cycle cannot be measured by a single indicator, because the cycle already contains many factors, and it is the result of many factors. Cycles are the result of human greed and fear at all levels of society, so cycles will definitely cycle, just like the cycle of human life.

2. Use structural similarity to further position. Only similar structures are likely to lead to similar trends in the future. When positioning, the lowest point, the highest point, the horizontal line of the large platform, and the time width between each point are the reference indicators for positioning.

When looking for similar structures and predicting future trends, it is best to find several structures with inconsistent final trends for reference, because many times the market analysis was bullish at the time, but eventually turned into a sharp drop.

3. Based on the daily positioning, get a prediction of whether it will rise or fall in the future as a reference for the next operation

(1) As the blood of industrial development, oil is affected by The mid-cycle within the Kang Bo cycle has a greater impact and is less affected by the inventory cycle. We make positioning from the mid-cycle of the Kang Bo cycle.

The current time of 2019 is the start time of the first mid-cycle of the depression period, which corresponds to the start time of the first mid-cycle of the previous depression period, which was around 1975. Here's what oil looked like around 1975.

As you can see from the chart above, around 1975, oil prices were flat.

Chapter 2, establishing my operating system: the discipline of buying and selling, and the explanation and operation of this:

The logic of the operation is: you must encounter or I can only make money by waiting for a big market trend. The market fluctuates disorderly within the fluctuation range. The market rises and falls in an irregular manner. My experience tells me that no matter the position is high or low, I will lose money every time I participate. In futures If you do the right thing in the market, you will make money, and if you do the wrong thing, you will lose money. Therefore, in order to catch or wait for the market, considering that futures is a trial and error game, I must do the following:

1. Reduce the position test actions. If the test position is correct, the market will be consistent with my prediction. The trend is very smooth; if it is still incorrect after testing the position three times frequently, exit first, the market trend is likely to be different from what I predicted.

2. The trial position must be small, the stop loss must be tight, and the principal must not be lost.

3. Plan to deal with the market trend after the test position. Even if the market trend is consistent with my expectation, how can I buy a test position? If they are inconsistent, clear the position immediately and exit the observation.

If you add a position after a successful trial position, you must be in a position where the added position can be independently profitable. When adding a position, you must add a long position when the price rises and breaks a signal line, and a short position when the price falls below a signal line; that is, there is a signal line as a reference, and when there is a clear rise or fall, add a long position or a short position.

4. Respond to the market situation of adding positions. If the market trend is consistent with my expectation, I will add a position once or twice on the day of the same market trend. After adding the position, I will pay attention to whether the market trend of my position is consistent with the expected trend. If it is consistent, the increase in the position is correct, and it will If there is a profit, I will continue to add positions at the next adding point in the current day's market or the next day's market. This is to ensure that each added position can make an independent profit. If the market continues to rise after adding positions or if there is an adjustment of a normal range in the historical trend, I will continue to hold; if the market drops sharply that is not seen in the historical trend, I will clear the position a little above the sharp drop and take profits. .

After you have a position, you must take care of your position and have a complete operation plan for the next day. The complete operation plan is as follows.

4.1. If the market rises as predicted in the historical market, consider whether to increase the position. If you want to increase the position, should you increase it once or twice that day? If so, at which point should you increase the position and how much position should you increase.

4.2. If the market price has a similar adjustment range to the predicted historical market, then hold it. We will not consider adding or reducing positions for the time being.

4.3. If the market falls and the decline exceeds the historical adjustment range, or there will be a sharp decline in the historical market, sell or clear positions in a large amount. Because in general, if there is a big drop or a big rise in the market, it may continue to fall or rise the next day, or there may be a big rebound. Therefore, if there is a big drop or a big rise in the reverse market, it will definitely To sell or clear positions in large quantities.

Explanation of the above operations

1. Reduce the number of test positions and only test positions near the operation warning line: Futures are a trial and error game, that is, after buying, in hindsight, Most of the positions tested are wrong. Because after buying, it is uncertain whether the market will rise or fall, and futures is a trial and error game, that is, most of the trial positions of buying or selling are wrong in the end, and the wrong trial position means losing money. Therefore, I want to reduce the number of test positions. Therefore, I do not participate in the disorderly fluctuations in the market within the shock range, and only test positions near the operation warning line. That is to say, the market trend has been confirmed to rise and a rise signal has been sent, so I buy a long order. If the market has definitely fallen, a fall signal has been sent, I will buy a short order. When the market's graphic structure, time width, and historical trends are mixed, there will definitely be a large rise or fall. This wave of market is the market that I participate in.

2. The test position must be small, the position must be below 10%, the stop loss must be tight, and the principal should not be lost: the market may rise or fall after buying. At this time, it is important to test the small position. After buying a long or short order, the market trend is as I predicted. When it comes time to increase the position, I have a psychological advantage. At least I will not lose my principal. If the market is inconsistent with my prediction after buying, the loss will be very small after I stop the loss, and the impact on my psychological and financial strength will be very small. When I encounter special circumstances after buying, my position is small and the loss can be easily controlled. The market is given by God and time, not by hard work: after a period of disorderly fluctuations, the market will still rise or fall, and it cannot stay sideways. After the spatial structure and approximate time width meet my standards, when the market definitely breaks through the nature line, that is, when it breaks through my operation warning line, I will buy or sell.

The buying point must not be bought or sold in advance. According to the daily trend characteristics of various commodities and the trend characteristics of the day, when I break through the nature line, that is, when I break through the interval line, I will buy or sell based on the graphic structure and time width. . Why can't you buy in advance? Because many markets were bullish at the time, and eventually ended up falling. Therefore, we must not say that if we are bullish and buy in advance, the profit will be greater. Because it is very likely that the price will fall the next day or continue to fall after buying it. The structure and time width must be satisfied and the property line must be broken before buying or selling.

If you have missed the operational quality line and then trade, you will also face the psychological pressure of not having a certain profit to resist the market fluctuations. Therefore, it is very important to buy and sell at the moment when the quality line is crossed. Buying in advance is Gambling, buying after missing out is psychologically passive.

There must be active operations: stop loss, lighten up, and clear positions. The stop loss must be set tightly. Operate near the set operation warning line and set up a stop loss. When the market goes straight up, setting a stop loss higher than the rising position will only lose money, but it is meaningless. When you go straight to the set stop loss, you should not wait until the market hits the stop loss line to automatically stop the loss. Instead, you should clear or reduce your position immediately, because the soaring market may indicate that the price will continue to rise the next day. The establishment of stop loss, position reduction and liquidation points is also to give yourself a buffer or a safety belt to deal with emergencies when the future market develops slowly step by step. However, there is a big positive line or a sudden rise or fall. When a big negative line goes straight up or down, you should immediately execute stop loss or reduce position or clear position immediately, instead of waiting for the market to reach the stop loss point and execute it automatically.

It is necessary to have a tight stop loss. Even if you find that the market has turned around again after the stop loss, try a few more positions near the operation warning line. The transaction fee is not much. If you have a tight stop loss, you can quickly save money by reducing your position. The money is much more than the handling fee. Don't set a wide stop loss just because you don't want to test more positions. As a result, you will lose money in vain without any effect.

3. Add position after successful trial position. The added position must be in a position where it can be independently profitable before adding the position: after the trial position is successful, and the market develops as I expect, I will add the position at the low level of the next consolidation that I expect. This added position must be the position after the purchase. The position can be independently profitable. I only buy long when the market bottoms out and goes up. I definitely can't buy in advance as an ambush before the market goes up. That is a rookie idea, because I don't know whether it will go up or down after buying, so I must Buy long after bottoming out and rising.

This position addition must be considered as an independent position purchase. When adding this position, it must be profitable. If the market does not develop as I expected after adding it, I must quickly clear the position and stop the loss. Losing principal is an iron rule.

Position considerations for adding a position

The purpose of the test position is to track whether the market is consistent with my prediction. Just watching without buying will definitely not be effective tracking. After the test position is successful, the market will It may be that the market is developing towards what I predicted, the trial position is low and the profit is very small. Therefore, the adding position at the next adding position is very important. If it is at the appropriate adding position, the adding position should be added at 30% or 40%.

4. How to respond to market trends after testing and adding positions. After testing or adding a position,

4.1. If the market rises as predicted in the historical market, consider whether to add a position. If you want to add a position, should you add it once or twice a day? At what point should you add it? Add, add how many positions.

4.2. If the market price has a similar adjustment range to the predicted historical market, then hold it. We will not consider adding or reducing positions for the time being.

4.3. If the market falls and the decline exceeds the historical adjustment range, or there will be a sharp decline in the historical market, sell or clear positions in a large amount.

Because in general, if there is a big drop or a big rise in the market, it may continue to fall or rise the next day, or there may be a big rebound. Therefore, if there is a big drop or a big rise in the reverse market, it will definitely To sell or clear positions in large quantities