1-In the first quarter of February, under the influence of multiple favorable factors, such as seasonal price of nickel ore, rising sea freight, high production of downstream stainless steel, strong consumption of new energy industry, suspension of nickel mining activities in an island in the Philippines, and unexpected return of Indonesian ferronickel, the market judged that there was a gap in ferronickel, and Shanghai nickel continued to rise to around150,000 yuan/ton. In March, under the impact of the high nickel matte incident in Qingshan, the market expected a surplus of nickel and iron, and the production cost of nickel sulfate dropped significantly. Shanghai nickel fell for two consecutive days, during which it plummeted by more than 20,000 yuan/ton.
In the second quarter, although domestic stainless steel was affected by the cancellation of export tax rebate policy, overseas economy recovered, stainless steel demand improved, steel prices continued to rise, and China's stainless steel exports performed well. At the same time, stimulated by overseas consumption, the output of stainless steel in Indonesia has greatly increased, and the overall supply of nickel and iron is in short supply. In addition, there is a gap in nickel sulfate raw materials, and the demand for autolysis of nickel beans increases. Under multiple favorable conditions, the price of nickel fluctuated violently.
In the third quarter, the epidemic in Indonesia continued to ferment in July and August, which caused the market to worry about the poor earnings of ferronickel. The bargaining center of high-nickel pig iron continued to rise to 1450 yuan/nickel point, and the price of nickel rose steadily. In the middle and late September, the domestic policies of "double control of energy consumption" and "limiting electricity and production" were tightened, and the production reduction of downstream stainless steel was greater than that of upstream ferronickel. In addition, risk aversion increased before the National Day, and nickel prices fluctuated weakly.
In the first half of the fourth quarter of 5438+ 10, the state banned "one size fits all" power cuts, and the downstream gradually resumed production. Driven by cost support and new energy consumption demand, the price of nickel hit a record high of 16 1600 yuan/ton. At the end of June, 10, the coal price continued to fall, and the market expected the cost of ferronickel to move down, and the nickel price fell accordingly. After more than half a month's weak shock, at the end of June, 1 1, supported by demand, the nickel price rebounded strongly after bottoming out near 140000.
Annual report on nickel futures strategy in 2022: the structural contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and the price center of gravity moves up.
Basic main logic
(1) Nickel ore: The seasonal law is obvious, and the grade of laterite nickel ore in the Philippines decreases, and the import volume decreases.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, from 202 1 to 10, China imported 37.607 million tons of nickel ore, up by 17.67% year-on-year. Among them, 34 172400 tons of nickel ore were imported from the Philippines, up 29.24% year-on-year. The increase is mainly due to the base utility, that is, the deterioration of the epidemic situation in the Philippines last year led to a decline in nickel ore imports. It is estimated that the import of nickel ore in 20021year is about 45 million tons; In 2022, the import of nickel ore was about 4 1 10,000 tons, the decrease was mainly due to the decline in the grade of nickel ore in the Philippines, and the production capacity of nickel pig iron in Indonesia was greatly reduced. In addition, on 2021118, the Philippine Bureau of Minerals and Geosciences (MGB) proposed to promote the policy of gradually restricting the export of raw ore, paving the way for mineral processing and value-added of the country's mining industry. However, as Dante Bravo, chairman of the Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA), said, the local operating factories in the Philippines are expensive, the infrastructure is not perfect, the power supply is insufficient, and the nickel and stainless steel industries are not systematic. It will take time to ban the export of raw ore.
From June 1 1 to April of the following year, the main mining areas in the Philippines entered the rainy season, which affected the mining and delivery of nickel ore. At this time, the import of domestic nickel ore decreased, and the speed of port warehouse removal accelerated; At the same time, the sea freight rate rose and the price of nickel ore was firm. At present, the inventory of nickel ore port is equivalent to last year, but the downstream ferronickel is controlled by energy consumption and power limitation, and the seasonal ore drawing phenomenon is not obvious. On the contrary, the nickel-iron plant seeks profits from the mine end.