After a good start, the price of broilers suffered a tragic drop, especially the unsalable national chicken, which was 0.82 yuan lower than that of a week ago.
Due to the increasing supply pressure, the price of urea has also dropped by 20-70 yuan/ton.
The prices of corn and peanuts are rising, and there is hope that they will continue to rise.
Pig prices have rebounded.
Affected by factors such as sluggish terminal consumption and farmers' "raising pigs for the New Year", the price of pigs dropped to 14.25 yuan/kg after the year, and then it ushered in an upward trend, but only slightly. However, in the last two days, the pig price rebounded strongly, with a daily increase of 0.65,438+0 yuan. After the increase, the current national average pig price has reached 14.79 yuan/kg.
Specifically, pig prices in various regions rose to 6.8-7.5 yuan in the southwest, 7-7.7 yuan in the northeast, 7. 1-7.6 yuan in north China, 7. 1-7.7 yuan in south China, 7. 1-7.6 yuan in central China and 7.3-8 yuan in east China.
Then the pig price still has the logic of rising: 1. After the price of pigs fell, the breeding end was reluctant to sell.
2. Compared with previous years, the amount of pork hoarded in residents' homes years ago is less, and the recovery speed of pork consumption will be accelerated.
3. The epidemic situation is stable, the catering industry and tourism industry have recovered, and the demand for pork has increased.
4. A large number of pigs were slaughtered years ago, and the number of pigs available for slaughter after the year was overdrawn to some extent.
However, affected by the low period of pork consumption, I am afraid that the increase in pig prices will not be great.
The price of broilers has dropped significantly.
According to statistics, last week, the average price of fast-growing chickens was 5.3-5.7 yuan/kg, the market price of medium-speed chickens was 6.76 yuan/kg, and that of unsalable chickens was 6.89 yuan/kg. Compared with before, the prices of unsalable chickens have declined to a certain extent, especially the decline of unsalable chickens even reached 0.82 yuan/kg.
However, the market of white feather broilers is still ideal. At present, it has continuously increased by 1 1 day after the year, and the transaction price before abandonment has increased to 4.8 1 yuan, with an increase of 10.32%.
To stimulate the recent decline in broiler prices, I think there are several main logics:
After 1 year, the demand for chicken consumption is weak during the low period of meat consumption.
2. The price of pork decreased with the decrease of the price of live pigs, and some chicken consumption demand was seized.
3. Slow-speed national chickens were affected by the unsatisfactory market conditions, and the enthusiasm of the breeding end was not high before the year, and some hairy chickens were delayed until the next year.
However, as far as the overall broiler market is concerned, due to the downturn of the broiler market in the previous two years, the loss of the chicken industry is deep. At present, the broiler production capacity has dropped significantly, and the broiler price has strong support.
Urea prices fell across the board.
In recent days, the price of urea has fallen sharply, with the overall decline reaching 20-70 yuan/ton, Shandong 20-40 yuan/ton, Henan 20-50 yuan/ton, Hebei 30-70 yuan/ton, Anhui 20-40 yuan/ton, Shanxi 20-50 yuan/ton, Liaoning 20 yuan/ton and Heilongjiang.
The decline in urea prices is mainly due to the increase in supply pressure and the failure of demand to keep up.
On the supply side, the parking enterprises in the early stage resumed work one after another, and the daily output of urea returned to more than 654.38+0.6 million tons. On the demand side, due to the rising price, the enthusiasm of agricultural materials for fertilizer allocation is not high. At present, the compound fertilizer factory has sufficient inventory and has not formed a large single purchase.
Coupled with the recent decline in international urea prices, urea futures prices have fallen, and urea prices have been under pressure.
Early warning of corn price rise
On February 14, the price of corn producing areas ushered in an increase, in which the quotations of deep processing enterprises in Shandong were raised by 0.3-0.7 points, mainly in North China, and some enterprises rose by 0.5 points, mainly in Northeast China.
As for the follow-up corn price, I think there is hope for a sustained rise in the market in a short time, because the price of corn was forced to fall to 2800 yuan/ton due to the previous price drop, and the grain merchants had a strong willingness to hold the price, which reduced the circulation of corn in the market.
However, in the medium and long term, there is still great pressure on corn prices. On the supply side, with the increase of temperature, the weather around the country has improved, and it is more difficult to store tidal grain. Farmers also have the need to realize cash before spring ploughing, and the situation of insufficient market circulation will be significantly improved.
On the demand side, the pig market is not ideal, and the demand at the feed end is doubtful, while the profit of starch and other by-products is low, and the demand for deep-processed corn is also general.
The price of peanut producing areas rose in an all-round way.
Affected by the recent improvement in market demand, the price of peanut producing areas has risen in an all-round way. The price of 308 coins rice in Liaoning province is 5.40-5.50 yuan/kg, peanut in Shandong province is 5.35-5.50 yuan/kg, and Baisha coin rice in Henan province is 5.45-5.60 yuan/kg.
There are three main reasons why peanut prices can turn from the previous downturn to the rising market:
1.In 2022, under the dual influence of planting area and weather, the peanut yield decreased.
2. Affected by the previous decline in peanut prices, the number of peanuts in the producing areas decreased after the year, and superimposed oil plants entered the market one after another, and the relationship between supply and demand of peanuts changed.
3. In terms of imported peanuts, the arrival volume at the port is limited, and the price increase of imported rice drives the price of domestic producing areas.
But March and April are the off-season of peanut food demand every year. With the end of the oil plant inventory, peanut prices may be adjusted back.
The peanut market should focus on the recovery of consumption and the arrival of imported rice in Hong Kong.