(2) Non-fossil energy will accelerate its development. According to the data of electric power industry, it is estimated that by the end of 2065.438+05, the installed power generation capacity will exceed 654.38+047 million kilowatts, including 320 million kilowatts of hydropower, accounting for 35% of non-fossil energy generation, an increase of 4 percentage points in two years. The rapid growth of non-fossil energy power generation will further occupy the space of coal consumption.
(3) The output of major coal-consuming products may also decline. Affected by the slow growth of electricity consumption in the whole society (it is estimated that the growth rate of electricity consumption will be about 1% in 2065 and 438+06, and 1-3% in 2065 and 438+06) and the rapid growth of non-fossil energy power generation, the growth rate of thermal power may be further reduced, and it is estimated that the utilization hour of thermal power may be reduced to 4,400 hours in 2065. Coal consumption may further decline.
(4) Domestic coal production capacity will remain surplus. Since 2006, China's coal mining and dressing industry has invested 3.6 trillion yuan in fixed assets, which has increased a lot of production capacity. At present, the national coal production capacity exceeds 4 billion tons, and the scale of projects under construction is 65.438+0.07 billion tons, which will aggravate the pressure of oversupply in the market.
(5) Coal import pressure will still exist. International energy prices have fallen sharply, and the international coal market as a whole is loose. International coal prices may still operate at a low level, especially with the signing and implementation of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement and the continued implementation of the Sino-Russian coal cooperation roadmap, the import volume may increase.
(VI) The acceleration of energy infrastructure construction has changed the traditional pattern of coal transportation and marketing. First of all, the development speed of UHV transmission lines is accelerated. So far, nine UHV transmission lines have been built in China, and another seven are under construction. Second, the railway transportation capacity continued to improve. The railway transportation capacity was increased by more than 1 100 million tons, which further increased the coal transportation capacity in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Mongolia and Xinjiang. Third, the transshipment capacity of the port is increasing. The five ports around the Bohai Sea (Qinhuangdao, Tianjin, Huanghua, Caofeidian and Jingtang Port) have a throughput of 630 million tons (in 2065,438+04, 66,543.80 billion tons of coal was actually shipped), and another 340 million tons are under construction. Great changes have taken place in the traditional coal transportation and marketing pattern in China, the original regional coal sales pattern is being broken, the difference between location advantage and coal type advantage is getting smaller and smaller, the characteristics of "market integration" and "price convergence" are taking shape, and the mining cost advantage is becoming increasingly prominent.
Generally speaking, the external environment faced by China coal market in 20 16 is more severe, coal consumption may continue to decline, the market is expected to continue to show a trend of oversupply, and the downward pressure on prices is still relatively large. -Yimei. com will answer for you.