Last Friday, the "colored" rose fiercely, and the colored index closed at the highest point in late trading. The colored index hit a new high in the past two years since 20 18.

Although the non-ferrous sector rose sharply, many A-share investors expressed "entanglement". First, because the valuation ceiling of non-ferrous and other cyclical varieties is very low, will I buy at a high point now? Second, there are too many color varieties to start with. What can you buy to exhaust the excess returns?

If the colors were well done, wealth would have been free.

Shou Caijun knows that there is an old saying in the investment circle that if the lottery is done well, the wealth will be free early.

This means that once the non-ferrous metal market really starts, it often means the change of economic situation, the adjustment of monetary policy and the opening of an intermediate cycle, which will also bring huge excess returns to investors.

So is this round of colored rise a short-term rebound? Or a mid-term style switch?

What logic is this?

1. Goldman Sachs believes that commodities represented by non-ferrous metals will usher in a bull market next year.

Second, which subdivided colored varieties can run out of excess returns?

I don't know if you have a duplicate offer. Among the A-share non-ferrous stocks, lithium and cobalt are the basic ones with early start and large increase, which are closely related to new energy vehicles.

A friend said that lithium and cobalt have risen very high recently, and they are "worried" about their growth space.

Not long ago, investment bank UBS issued a document saying that the global penetration rate of new electric vehicles will reach 40% in the next decade, which also means that the market demand for lithium batteries and related raw materials will greatly increase. Therefore, in the next 10 year, there will be a great shortage of lithium, cobalt, rare earth and copper.

According to UBS's estimation, the penetration rate of electric vehicles will be 40% in 2030-higher than the average market expectation of 30%. The reason why UBS made this judgment is that the difference between the cost of electric vehicles and the cost of fuel vehicles will be completely erased in 2024, and governments of various countries will vigorously promote electric vehicles. After ten years, the penetration rate of electric vehicles will reach 40%.

2, new energy vehicles+energy storage, lithium battery explosion.

As the heart of a new energy vehicle when it flies at high altitude,

-Lithium batteries are naturally not bad.

According to UBS data, the demand for lithium-ion batteries will be 2596GWh by 2030, but now it is only148 GWh; At present. At the same time, all countries in the world are vigorously advocating low-carbon environmental protection and are vigorously developing photovoltaic and wind power generation. However, everyone should know that "scenery" power generation cannot be directly used, and it needs energy storage to be used. Therefore, by 2023, the energy storage system is expected to bring additional demand of 1.36 GWh for lithium batteries.

According to UBS's assumption on the penetration rate of electric vehicles, it is expected that the demand for batteries will increase in the next decade.

13 times will change the demand rhythm of raw materials for battery manufacturing.

UBS Group AG predicted that the demand for lithium will increase more than 8 times, natural graphite will increase 5 times, and the market size of rare earth (neodymium and praseodymium) and cobalt will expand 3 times.

4. Such strong demand will lead to the shortage of related minerals in the future 10.

According to data from UBS,

At present, the shortage of nickel has appeared this year, with a shortage of 6.5438+0.023 million tons and a shortage of 2.65438+0%. By 2023, there will be a shortage of both cobalt and rare earth, among which the shortage of rare earth is 4. 1 10000 tons, accounting for 47% of the shortage; There will be a shortage of 68,000 tons of cobalt, with a shortage ratio of 23%.

Investment opportunities:

Domestic institutions believe that the dispatching plan of the new energy automobile industry chain 202 1Q 1 is expected to continue to grow month-on-month. Due to the rapid upward price of cobalt and lithium, downstream enterprises are more willing to stock up, and the demand of all links in the industrial chain is now "bullwhip effect". It is recommended to pay attention to leading companies in various segments.

1. cobalt, there has been a new round of rumors about purchasing and storing in the market recently. In addition, due to the intensification of overseas epidemics, the decline of port capacity and the intensification of cobalt raw materials, cobalt prices may enter a rapid upward range;

2. As for lithium, SQM and LG signed a long-term supply order of 55,000 tons of lithium salt for 9 years, and AVZ and Gan Feng signed an exclusive sales agreement with the longest term of 10 year. The leading effect of industrial chain is more and more obvious, and the scarcity of electric vehicle resources needs to be paid attention to;

3. In terms of nickel, the price of nickel rose sharply last week. The price of nickel sulfate closed at 30,300 yuan/ton, and the price rose by 9.0% in the week. The price of electrolytic manganese closed at12,400 yuan/ton, and the price rose by11.7% during the week;

According to the forecast of authoritative organizations, by 2030, the demand for nickel for power batteries will soar from 654.38+0.39 million tons in 2020 to 654.38+00 times to 654.38+0.4 million tons, accounting for 30% of the total demand for nickel.

Domestic institutions also indicated that nickel will benefit from the unit consumption and the production and sales of battery cars in Shuang Sheng, and nickel will be the most promising battery metal in the next decade.

4. In terms of rare earths, NdFeB is the largest downstream application direction of rare earths, mainly used in traditional automobiles, new energy vehicles, inverter air conditioners, wind power and other fields. China is the world leader in rare earth reserves, output, export volume and consumption, and has the most complete rare earth industrial chain in the world.

In recent years, the supply-side structural reform of the domestic rare earth industry has continued to advance, and downstream applications such as magnetic materials, catalysis and hydrogen storage have developed at a high speed, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are expected to gradually improve. Under the anti-globalization, the strategic position of rare earth resources is expected to be greatly improved, and the price of rare earth resources is expected to continue to increase. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the strategic allocation value of rare earth plate.