1, the positive side.
1) Falling international oil prices will first reduce energy costs and promote the recovery and development of manufacturing industries, thus contributing to the global economic recovery process;
2) Low oil prices will stimulate global demand for crude oil, especially in China, Indian and other developing countries. The increase of crude oil demand and reserves is beneficial to economic growth.
2. On the negative side.
The sharp drop in international oil prices in the short term will reduce the global market's expectation of economic growth and market demand in the coming period, which is not conducive to the process of economic recovery. For example, in the global oil futures trading market, the expected decline of global financial market caused by bearish crude oil will directly affect the global future economic growth expectation, and the expected deterioration of future global economic trends will lead to the lack of confidence in future growth in industrial sectors of various countries, thus reducing investment and slowing down the economic recovery process.
The resulting low oil price pattern will bring severe challenges to the economies of oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia. The volatility of the stock market has intensified and the pressure on funds has increased. If ultra-low oil prices continue, many oil-producing countries will face fatal pressure, and at the same time, it will also have a huge impact on the United States.
Extended data
Reasons for the collapse of international oil prices
Oil prices plummeted. From an economic point of view, the imbalance between supply and demand in the market is one of the important reasons. Crude oil is usually closely related to economic operation. Due to the influence of international politics, oil-producing countries constantly adjust their output, which makes the price of crude oil disturbed by both supply and demand. The OPEC+meeting, which has attracted much attention from the market, unexpectedly "collapsed". Saudi Arabia said it would increase production if necessary, which was a heavy blow to the current "tight" oil market.
As far as the demand side is concerned, the outbreak of the epidemic has led to the cancellation of a large number of flights, the suspension of production of many enterprises, the depression of tourism, the obvious slowdown of global economic activities and the sharp drop in demand for crude oil, which has led to the weakness of the oil market and cast a heavy shadow on the world economic growth prospects.
As far as the supply side is concerned, "price reduction+production increase" is the fuse for the sharp drop in oil prices. Crude oil plummeted, first of all under the pressure of demand collapse. Subsequently, in order to protect themselves, oil-producing countries broke the fragile production reduction agreement in the past, and Saudi Arabia and other countries even chose to increase production to protect their fiscal revenue. This means that there has been a double-kill situation in the crude oil market, which has led to a rare decline in international crude oil prices.
In order to stabilize the international oil price, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, headed by Saudi Arabia, plans to take measures to "limit production and protect prices". The previous oil production reduction agreement will expire at the end of March this year, and it is widely speculated in the industry that a new agreement will be signed in the near future. Its plan is to extend the existing production reduction plan of 265,438+10,000 barrels per day to the end of 2020, and at the same time reduce production by 1.5 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to about 1.5% of the global demand. In terms of additional production reduction plan, OPEC members cut production by 6.5438+0 million barrels per day, and non-OPEC members cut production by 500 thousand barrels per day.
However, this plan has not been supported by non-OPEC oil producers, including Russia. With the breakdown of the negotiations, Saudi Arabia played a "combination boxing" of "reducing prices and increasing production", which shocked the international energy and financial markets in one fell swoop. When demonstrating its "unique position" in the international crude oil market, this kind of behavior of "killing one thousand and losing eight hundred" also made Saudi Arabia taste the drop in oil prices for the first time.
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