Since mid-April, influenced by a series of events such as the enlargement of the European debt crisis, Goldman Sachs fraud and the introduction of domestic real estate control policies, copper prices have continued to fall. At present, the callback trend of copper market is still continuing, and the metal market will remain weak in the short term. The recent factors affecting the market mainly include:

First, the EU debt crisis worries dominate the market, and the market outlook is still not optimistic.

Although the European Union's rescue case has avoided the possibility of Greek debt default, the expectation that fiscal austerity will lead to gloomy economic growth in the euro zone is still strong, which will inevitably lead to the depreciation of the euro and the safe-haven demand for the dollar will continue. Therefore, the bearish atmosphere of the market has not alleviated the current downward trend of the metal market.

Second, the United States strengthened its supervision over the financial sector, and the "fraud gate" incident escalated.

Taking advantage of the European debt crisis, the U.S. government launched a rectification of the financial market on Wall Street to quell domestic and foreign dissatisfaction, and the scope of Wall Street's "fraud door" is also expanding. At present, it seems that it will take some time, and there are still variables in the metal market outlook.

Third, the domestic CPI and PPI Shuang Sheng rekindled interest rate hikes. The copper market is expected to be under pressure.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Tuesday, the consumer price index (CPI) of China increased by 2.8% in April, and the factory price index (P PI) increased by 6.8% in April. Relevant persons of the central bank said that there will still be greater upward pressure on CPI and PPI in the next three months. Real estate regulation, the tightening of liquidity by the central bank, and the expectation of raising interest rates are still important factors in the empty market atmosphere. The copper market will continue to bear greater downward pressure, with limited upside space in the short term.

Fourth, at the end of the peak season, copper prices are difficult to do.

From the perspective of season, the peak consumption season is coming to an end. In April, China's automobile production and sales decreased by 9.85% and 10.37% respectively, and the automobile market returned to rationality, and its supporting role to the market gradually weakened. In addition, the impact of the new national property market policy on copper prices, the copper market outlook is still not optimistic. Although the country intends to slow down the tightening policy recently, the operating rate of major processing enterprises is at a high level, and the demand for refined copper is good, but the domestic spot market supply is still sufficient, and the continued weak spot price has also dragged down the rise of futures prices.

5. High inventory will be an important upward pressure on copper prices.

1, copper imports remain high, and the upward pressure on copper prices increases.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported in May 1 1 that the refined copper output in China in May was 1.455 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, of which the output in April was 380,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. 201April imports 436,300 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, down 4.4% from the previous month, and in April150,700 tons, up 12.7% year-on-year. 2010 imported 370,000 tons of copper scrap in April, and10.35 million tons in April, up 19.4% year-on-year. The high level of copper imports shows that domestic demand is still good in the peak consumption season, but the sharp increase of domestic supply will suppress the rise of copper prices to some extent.

2. The high volatility of global copper stocks has become an important upward pressure on copper prices.

Judging from the current inventory changes of global exchanges, although the inventory of Luntong and Shanghai Copper decreased simultaneously, the inventory of global exchanges remained at a high level of 758,000 tons, and the total inventory level of global exchanges did not drop significantly. If this situation does not change, it is hard to expect copper prices to perform better after May.

Sixth, the strength of the dollar is still easy to fall and difficult to rise in the copper market.

Although copper futures sometimes rise and fall with the US dollar in the interweaving of capital and risk preference, by observing the long-term trend of the US dollar and copper price, it is not difficult to find that since the end of 2009, the strength of the US dollar has limited the upside of copper prices, and it still maintains the strong view of the US dollar for the later trend of the US dollar. The continuation of the medium-term trend of the US dollar will bring shocks to copper futures.

7. Outlook for the market outlook: It will continue to fluctuate downward in the near future.

The recent euro zone debt crisis and China's real estate control policy have become the main events that affect the market. Recently, the European Union countries jointly rescued the European debt crisis, and the market sentiment has eased, but the crisis has not been completely solved. The domestic CPI data, which hit a new high in the year, once again triggered the market's concerns about policy tightening. At present, domestic metals are still weak under the background of oversupply, and the peak season of metal consumption is coming to an end. The metal market outlook lacking peak season support is difficult to be optimistic. It is expected that basic metals will continue to fluctuate at a low level in May and June, and Luntong will find support after falling below the 6800 support. The support level of Shanghai Copper is around the low of 52,000 at the beginning of the year.

Eight, the annual copper price forecast

Although the global economy is gradually recovering, copper prices have rebounded after the previous oversold, but the factors affecting the market in the post-financial crisis era are still complicated. The follow-up development of the European debt crisis, the adjustment of domestic macroeconomic policies, inflation, sluggish consumer demand and other factors will have a great impact on the copper price in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the average annual copper price is 56,000-58,000 yuan/ton.

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