However, with the development of the situation, concerns about the Sino-US trade war have gradually eased. On May 4th, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Kang announced that at the invitation of the US government, President's Special Envoy, Commissioner the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, Vice Premier the State Council and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue Liu He will visit the US from May 6th to 5th. At that time, Vice Premier Liu will continue to hold consultations with the US economic delegation led by US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on economic and trade issues between the two countries.
On the occasion of China Liu He, Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China's visit to the United States this week, US President Trump suddenly showed his kindness to China and wrote on Twitter: "The President and he are working together to provide ZTE with a way to quickly resume business, otherwise China will lose too many jobs." He has instructed the Ministry of Commerce to finish the work. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that China and the United States were about to reach an agreement on ZTE and agricultural tariffs. Related knowledge includes accelerating Qualcomm's review of the acquisition of NXP Semiconductors, and NXP's share price rose to 16%.
It can be seen that there is hope for easing the tense economic and trade relations between China and the United States, which is good for American beans and is conducive to expanding the export share of American beans in the later period. On Monday, May 14, CBOT Chicago Board of Trade's July soybean futures rose 13 cents to 1 0/6.25 cents/bushel, an increase of 1.3%, which broke away from the five-week low (see figure1). However, the easing of the trade war is bad for the domestic market, because the domestic market has injected too much trade war emotional premium in the early stage. Recently, the oil has been continuously adjusted, and the main contract of soybean oil has returned to below 5800 yuan/ton. By the close of May 1809, Dalian soybean oil contract closed at 5766 yuan/ton, with an intraday low of 5748 yuan/ton and 65438+ in May.
In recent months, PetroChina has made a good profit in squeezing, which has made the oil plant purchase a large number of foreign soybeans. After the trade contradiction between China and the United States escalated, China turned its focus to Brazil, which once pushed the premium of Brazil to rise sharply. Recently, however, the situation has reversed. Due to the continuous appreciation of the US dollar, the Brazilian currency, the real, has fallen sharply, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of Brazilian soybeans by more than half, and the import cost has been greatly reduced.
Since last week, China importers' interest in buying soybeans has dried up. Because of the weak demand for terminal farming, domestic oil plants were forced to stop production due to the serious surge in soybean meal. However, Brazil's soybean production is expected to hit a record high. According to USDA, Brazil's soybean output in 20 18/ 19 is expected to be1.1.700 million tons, which is equivalent to last year's record level. It is estimated that the harvest area will reach a record 36.5 million hectares, an increase of 654.38+400,000 hectares or 4% over the previous year. In the case of sufficient supply, the price of beans may fall, so that low prices will attract buyers to buy again. In addition, the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Association (ABIOVE) also said that Brazil will expand its dominant position in the next few years, and the soybean planting area in Brazil will increase by 500,000 to 700,000 hectares every year. If 500,000 hectares are planted, the annual soybean output may increase by as much as 2 million tons.
Domestic fundamentals
1, extrusion
According to the latest Cofeed survey, it is estimated that 9.04 million tons of soybeans will arrive in Hong Kong in May, 9.8 million tons in June, 0.0 million tons in July and 9 million tons in August. Due to the huge profits of squeezing, oil plants began to flourish. However, the extremes meet, and the output of soybean meal is also increasing. However, due to the poor demand for terminal farming, the delivery of soybean meal in the oil factory was slow, which led to a large-scale shutdown of the factory. Last week (May 5-May 1 1), the operating rate of domestic oil plants continued to decline. The total amount of soybean crushed by oil plants in China was146,250 tons (slag165,438 tons, oil 263,925 tons), a decrease of 65,438 compared with last week. As some oil plants stopped production for about half a month, the soybean meal inventory has been digested and started one after another. Next week (the 20th week), the operating rate of the oil plant will pick up, and the crushing capacity may be around 6.5438+0.6 million tons. Next week (the 265.438+0 week), the crushing capacity will rise to 6.5438+0.6 million tons. Even though the operating rate has rebounded, it is still at a low level.
2. Supply and demand of soybean oil
As of May 1 1, the total domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was12,868,500 tons, a decrease of199,500 tons, a decrease of 1.52%, and a decrease of 137.8 compared with the same period of last month. It decreased by 6.6 1%, and increased by 38.85 million tons compared with1248 million tons in the same period last year, with an increase of 365,438+0.1%,with a five-year average of 9816400 tons.
In the past two weeks, oil has continuously fluctuated and rebounded, boosting market confidence and boosting buyers' enthusiasm for buying. Especially in the first week of May, the total turnover of soybean oil in major factories nationwide reached179,500 tons, with an average daily turnover of 59,833 tons. In the second week of May, the buyer's willingness to chase after inflation was slightly weakened, and the soybean oil transaction declined, but the daily average transaction still reached more than 20,000 tons, and the total transaction reached122,200 tons, down 3 1.92% compared with the previous week. In fact, the market demand for soybean oil this year is obviously better than that of the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year (as of May 1 1), the total turnover of soybean oil has reached 22 177 10 tons, an increase of 804,265,400 tons compared with the same period last year. Mainly due to the obvious pattern of oversupply of soybean oil, the spot price of domestic soybean oil has been significantly lower than last year, but the price difference between domestic soybean and palm oil has been lower than the normal level for a long time, resulting in the market share of small varieties of oils such as palm oil being squeezed by soybean oil.