At first glance, T+0 system is a big advantage for us to do T0 trading, but it is not. On the contrary, I am extremely opposed to the T+0 system.
Under the current T+ 1 system, if you want to do a lot of transactions, you must hold a lot of stocks and stay overnight. If the T+0 system is implemented, you can do many transactions with a little money. For example, when we do derivatives trading, we can make hundreds of round trips a day, which is equivalent to an investment of 100 million and can generate tens of billions of transactions.
There are too many companies that can come up with 100 million yuan, and the whole market is hundreds of billions of transactions. This means that what proportion of trading volume you can achieve depends only on your trading ability, and the capital threshold is very low. This will cause a few companies to occupy the vast majority of market turnover, and other companies will lose money as soon as they trade.
In the American market, Citadel accounts for 40+% of the market share of American market makers, and Jump accounts for 40+%of the turnover of non-market makers. Together, the two companies account for 40+% of the total trading volume of US stocks, and the top ten institutions in the United States may account for 8-90% of the total trading volume. All mature capital markets in the world are basically monopolized by American institutions, and almost all American companies are trading. If China implements the T+0 policy, it will end up with the same result and be monopolized by American companies. A small number of institutions occupy a large proportion of market transactions, which is not conducive to the stability of the capital market, because the market price is completely controlled by a small number of institutions, not the result of the participation of a large number of investors.
If A shares are changed to T+0 system, retail investors will gradually lose money and disappear; Market turnover rose in the short term and declined in the long term; In case the stock market crashes, the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to fall.
Convertible bonds are now T+0 mechanism, which has been played for three weeks, but the success rate is 90%, indicating that it is suitable for T+0. If investors who play convertible bonds can't make money all the time, then it is definitely not suitable to change A shares into T+0 in the future.
The only way to succeed in stock trading is to improve the trading level. There is no other choice, but many investors are unwilling to learn. Stop profit and stop loss "The stock market is extremely difficult to survive, and the stop loss is the first level to stop profit". If you don't study and practice, you won't do T in the stock quilt, and you won't learn "Do T operation set to help you cross the bull and bear" to improve your operational ability. When you lose money in stock trading, you always blame this and that, and you never find reasons for yourself.
If T+0 is implemented, the volatility of A-shares will be intensified in the short term, because the market activity will increase and the efficiency of capital utilization will increase, but at the same time the market volatility will increase significantly. For example, after a stock rises on the same day, investors sell it, then buy it back slightly or buy it again in a big way, which will continue to push up the stock price. Similarly, the stock fell on the same day, and some investors bought it, and continued to fall after buying it. Because it can be sold on the same day, many investors will choose to stop selling on the same day, thus increasing the selling pressure, thus helping to rise and fall.
But in the long run, T+0 trading system can make the market more fair and free, and the long-short game in the market will be more intense, which can improve the efficiency of market value discovery. If we want to implement T+0, we must cancel the price limit, otherwise it will not be a complete T+0. Then, many stocks that suddenly plummet and stop trading will suddenly plummet by 50% or even more than 80%, and investors who accidentally buy flash stocks will suffer heavy losses, just like US stocks and Hong Kong stocks.
It will be more difficult for retail investors to make money. Where is the way out?
First, you can only choose to invest in blue-chip stocks with high liquidity. Because of the fundamental characteristics of blue-chip stocks, more institutions will participate. In the ups and downs, it is more of a game of big funds. When there is systemic risk in the stock market, the liquidity advantage will be reflected. A blue chip with a reasonable valuation will have funds to enter the market even if it falls to a position that the organization thinks is reasonable after the Black Swan incident. Small-cap stocks with poor liquidity and fundamentals are likely to plummet without support.
Second, there are advantages and disadvantages for short-term investors. On the positive side, strong short-term traders can make profits more efficiently with T+0. For example, traders who originally judged that they would rise on the same day suffocated when they opened lower the next day after buying. After T+0, as long as the judgment is correct at that time, the locked profits can be sold quickly after the rise. For traders with insufficient ability, they may make mistakes, trade repeatedly, trade countless times a day, and finally be swallowed up by the price difference and handling fee in the case of low accuracy and high frequency trading.
Third, after T+0, it will be more difficult to make money in the stock market, some people will make money more easily, but most people will lose money more easily. Referring to the mature experience of western capital markets, the stock market will eventually evolve into a place for big institutions to play games, and the professional judgment, financial research ability and strategy will be more competitive. The retail of the stock market will accelerate, and more and more investors have to withdraw from the stock market and choose to invest in the stock market indirectly through funds.
Therefore, in my opinion, the future T+0 system will be the necessity of A-share reform. The science and technology innovation board implements the registration system, moderately liberalizes the price limit (from 10% to 20%), and will further cancel the price limit system in the future, and then implement T+0. After that, the registration system, the cancellation of the price limit and T+0 will be promoted and implemented in the whole city. It will become more and more difficult for investors to make money. Retail investors either quit or adapt, and the result of drifting will only get worse and worse.
Thank you for your invitation. I am Wang Chen, with more than ten years of personal investment and seven years of experience in institutional research. He has rich investment and research experience in stocks and commodities. Let me share with you some of my views.
In the past two days, the discussion that A shares may resume the T+0 system has attracted the attention of investors, and everyone is discussing whether it is good or bad.
If it is really implemented in the future, where is the way out for retail investors? My views are as follows: Let's take a look:
The reason why people are obsessed with the T+0 system these two days lies in the article "A-share basic system is becoming more and more perfect and T+0 system is expected" published by the Securities Times in the early morning of April1/KLOC-0.
Let's analyze and summarize the core meaning of this passage:
The market with a large number of individual investors is characterized by large daily fluctuations, and the overall trend of the market presents a staged "ups and downs".
China A-shares used to implement the "T+0" system in history-for example, Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange started to implement "T+0" on 1992 and 1993 respectively, but due to the serious market speculation, they had to cancel this system on 1995 and change it to "T+/kloc".
In addition, we always think that foreign stock markets are all T+0 systems, but in fact, mature markets in Europe and America also control the risks brought by the system. Take the US stock market as an example. There are three trading accounts in the US stock market: margin account, cash account and revolving trading account.
The cash account is small and can only be operated after cash delivery, often T+3; T+ 1 can be executed in the margin account, but T+0 is allowed to be executed three times within five trading days, which will be subject to trading restrictions;
The revolving trading account, that is, our hypothetical T+0 account, must ensure that the market value of the account is $25,000, which means a little minimum. The reason why the United States has very strict regulations on the trading frequency and market value of accounts is because they think that T+0 trading will often increase the trading frequency of individual investors, and the increase in trading frequency will hurt individual investors with great probability.
Therefore, combined with the article of this Securities Times, the evolution of domestic T+ 1 trading system and the differences of American trading system, we can all see that for the T+0 system, the system itself promotes liquidity, but there are also risks behind the system, especially in the market with more individual investors.
Therefore, the details of the trading system and the establishment of risk control mechanism will be very important preparations, which is why I think it is difficult to implement it immediately in the short term, or it is difficult to fully implement it in A shares.
1.The trend of A-share market participants will be "institutionalization".
At this point, we will find the potential changes when A shares are included in MSCI around 20 16 and into the SDIC family.
The change is mainly manifested in the continuous growth of institutional investors, especially foreign capital represented by Hong Kong capital and QFII, while the growth of individual investors tends to be stable or declining.
2. We also found that in the past two years, the trend differentiation between blue-chip stocks and theme stocks in A-shares has gradually become obvious.
The long-term trend of blue-chip stocks with excellent performance held by a few institutions is obvious, while the volatility of theme stocks is gradually declining. To put it in simpler terms, there is a bull market for blue-chip stocks with excellent performance, while theme stocks tend to stay put or show the fluctuation characteristics of "electrocardiogram".
3. "Countermeasure" is to deeply understand a sentence-"Whoever holds the handle has the right to speak".
Before 20 16, many active funds in this market were hot money, and institutional investors often "chased up and killed down", which was due to the atmosphere.
But now, foreign capital and domestic social security funds have become the biggest force in this market. Their style is to pursue long-term value trends, but they don't care much about short-term fluctuations. Their investment style is valuation-oriented, with industrial chain exploration and industry research as the starting point, which has changed the trading style and individual stock operation style of this market.
To sum up, the news that T+0 may be implemented in the future really makes investors feel ups and downs, but we need to recognize several points:
First of all, the system itself will be implemented sooner or later, but it is unlikely to be fully rolled out at this stage, because the implementation of T+0 will definitely increase the "desire" of speculation and short-term trading, which the CSRC does not want to see. So it needs a lot of system construction and preparation.
Let's talk about two remarkable characteristics of convertible bonds T+0:
Feature 1: "No price limit"
China's stock has a price limit, and convertible bonds are different from stocks, "there is no price limit", which is why we can often see that convertible bonds will rise by 20% or 30%.
If we dig deeper, it is not rigorous to "go up and down indefinitely". The requirement of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges is that there is a price limit, but most daily transactions can't reach the limit, so it is generally said that convertible bonds "have no price limit". Specific rules can be found on the website of the exchange.
Feature 2: T+0 transaction
China's stock trading system is T+ 1, and stocks bought on the same day can only be sold on the second trading day. Convertible bonds are different, they can be bought and sold on the same day, and there is no limit on the number of transactions, so they can take profit and stop loss in time.
I want to tell you what the hell convertible bonds are and what good investment strategies they have.
Convertible bonds, literally, are bonds that can be converted into stocks. Since it is a debt, it is necessary to repay the principal and interest at maturity.
When a listed company issues convertible bonds, the shareholders who hold the company's shares can directly place them (that is, they can directly purchase convertible bonds according to the number of shares held, and the specific operation path is roughly the same for all brokers. Click to buy or sell, enter the allotment code, and the quantity and price will be automatically displayed and confirmed). Investors who don't own shares in the company can't place shares, but can only buy new bonds like new shares (shareholders who place shares can buy new bonds at the same time). Unlike new shares, it is empty.
After the bid-winning announcement (the bid-winning amount is an integer multiple of 1 1,000 yuan), the listing time varies, from half a month to one month. Generally, the specific time is inquired in the bond plate of Oriental Fortune. Going public means you can buy and sell like a stock. After half a year, investors can convert convertible bonds into stocks (if you look carefully in the trading software, there will be a debt-for-equity swap menu. The main point is that the code should be converted into stock code. I often hear investors ask why they can't convert because the code is wrong. Other information is automatically jumped out)
The price of convertible bonds is mainly related to stocks and is positive. The theoretical price can be the stock price/conversion price * 100.
As for direct selling or debt-to-equity swap, this is also the case. For example, the stock price 6 yuan, the conversion price 5 yuan, the theoretical value of convertible bonds 120 yuan. If the current price is 130 yuan, it is obviously cost-effective to sell the convertible bonds directly, and vice versa.
Of course, there are clauses to protect shareholders, and there are also clauses to protect investors, that is, the resale clause, which mainly means that convertible bonds can be sold back to the company when the closing price of the stock is lower than 70% of the current conversion price in any continuous 30 trading days. I won't go into details.
This weekend, speculation about T+0 trading in the stock market was heated up. Personally, I think that if the China stock market implements T 10 trading as the first step, the stocks bought on the same day can be sold on the same day. Then the second step is bound to liberalize the price limit system, that is, the stock market will no longer set the limit that the intraday trading price should not exceed 10% compared with the closing price of the previous trading day.
What will happen? You can refer to the Hong Kong stock market. Individual stocks will skyrocket or plummet in one day because of their quality. Junk stocks will become real junk, and fairy stocks will pile up and become stocks with a few cents. Delisting stocks will increase, many speculative retail investors will pay the price of blood, retail investors will be marginalized, institutions will become the mainstream, and value investment will become the mainstream. Therefore, the management will carefully consider whether the time is ripe.
What industry will benefit from T+0 trading in the stock market? Of course, retail investors prefer securities stocks for the following reasons:
1. Because of T+0 trading, stock trading is active, and short-term turnover increases sharply, which will inevitably lead to a sharp increase in commission income of securities companies;
2. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index is around 2800 points, which belongs to the bottom area of the bear market. Stimulated by the short-term positive of T+0 trading, it is likely to come out of a wave of market. The trading volume will naturally rise with the market, and the self-operated income of securities companies will also rise with the market.
Apart from buying securities stocks in the short term, what are the outlets for retail investors?
1. The risk of buying convertible bonds is small and guaranteed. The price will fluctuate with the stock price, but the range is small, which combines the long-term growth potential of stocks with the advantages of security and fixed income of bonds.
2. Buy value stocks with moats. With the implementation of T+0 and the liberalization of the price limit, funds will choose a safe and reliable harbor and will gradually move closer to value stocks.
3. Buy stock funds and give the funds to truly powerful funds. When the pool is full of crocodiles, it is difficult for shrimp to survive, so let crocodiles kill it. Choosing a fund means choosing a fund manager and choosing a fund with outstanding past performance.
Many people expect the A-share market to be completely open, and the whole market transactions, such as T+0, can be long and short in both directions, and there is no limit to the ups and downs. They fantasize that after the market is completely open, they can punch Zhao Dage and kick Buffett like a duck to water.
But with all due respect, stop dreaming and wake up quickly. The reason why you have such an idea is entirely because you don't know yourself, and you are too blind and confident in your cognition and ability.
The essence of stock trading is a zero-sum game. A-shares have been rising all the time, so if you want to make money and win, you either need to beat the millions of retail investors in Qian Qian like you, or you need to play with the main players with deep pockets and give you a sedan chair to make you earn the difference.
What drives this market is price and volume. Price is the embodiment of quantity, and quantity comes first. Only when more and more orders flood in and accept all orders will the stock price rise. Similarly, the continuous influx of orders will consume all the bills and the stock price will fall.
You are one of the tens of millions of retail investors in Qian Qian, so you can't push the stock price up by yourself. I can only follow the trend and eat soup and meat with the main funds. When the main funds keep building positions, you quietly follow them on the bus. As the capital keeps pushing up the stock price, your account generates profits.
At this time, you can choose to leave the bag immediately, or you can choose to keep it for a period of time to get further income. Of course, you will face the risk that the main force may ship at any time.
Even if luck happens to coincide with the main shipment and the stock price starts to fall, you can successfully complete the clearance with the flexibility brought by a small amount of funds, keep the income and avoid further extraction of account profits.
However, the above analysis and discussion are based on the current market environment. If it becomes T+0, there is no price limit, and it is a two-way market. Will it still be like this?
Obviously not. By then, the actions of opening positions, pulling up and shipping will be obviously accelerated, because they have huge funds to start the market, accurate first-hand information, strict operating systems and so on.
Therefore, if T+0 is implemented, it will be more difficult for retail investors to capture when the market starts. When retail investors find out, the market is still over, and it is more likely that it has been in place in one step and then started to turn. At this time, retail investors can't win the main force.
Therefore, if A shares are fully marketized, it will mean accelerating de-retailing. It will be more difficult for retail investors to make money, but it will be easier to lose money, which will eventually be eroded by the market.
If the T+0 trading system is really implemented, the only way out for retail investors is to lift the restrictions and become free. They will not harvest under the restrictions of T+ 1, but change the harvesting methods.
What is the T+0 trading system?
T+0 trading system means that after buying today, you can trade and sell on the same day, and you can buy and sell on the same day.
T+ 1 trading system means that after you buy today, you can't sell it the next trading day. Can't sell on the same day, trading is limited.
If T+0 is realized, who will benefit the most?
The trading rules of T+0 are already known above. The implementation of this policy is the biggest advantage for securities companies, but it has advantages and disadvantages for institutions and retail investors.
The commission income of securities companies will increase greatly, because T+0 will lead to a significant increase in market trading activity. Every time the market rises, securities companies will charge a certain commission, and the commission income to securities companies will increase exponentially.
In fact, T+0 has little influence on the organization. After all, the organization's funds are huge. There is a saying that "the ship is too big to turn around", and the organization has a lot of chips in its hands. The real business still depends on the funds and chips of the organization. Both T+0 and T+ 1 have little influence on the mechanism, and can also perform fluctuation operation.
However, T+0 has a great influence on retail investors, who have little funds, and many retail investors buy and sell in Man Cang. T+0 and T+ 1 are very different.
If T+0 is implemented, retail investors can buy optimistic stocks on the same day. If it goes up after buying, it can be sold immediately. If there is a problem after buying, they can stop immediately and trade freely.
It will not be similar to the model of T+ 1. No matter how you go on the day after buying, retail investors can only watch performances and can't trade. Close the door directly the next day, and you can't sell it if you want. This is the biggest disadvantage of T+ 1 for retail investors.
Therefore, T+0 is most beneficial to securities companies, followed by retail investors and institutions. No matter which trading system has little influence, it can control the stock market.
Where is the way out for T+0 retail investors?
With the implementation of T+0, the way out for retail investors is band operation, fast-forward and fast-out, and avoiding riding a roller coaster.
After all, T+0 is very beneficial to the operation of retail investors. Which stock to watch on that day, and then you can buy it at the first time. Only when it goes up after buying, can it be sold immediately if there is a price difference. This is the most convenient operation for retail investors.
Therefore, after T+0, the only way out for retail investors is to eat the short-term band price difference. If you want to make value investment again, it is very difficult to hold it for a long time.
After all, A shares are a retail market, and retail investors are the main force. T+0 retail investors become speculative, fast forward and fast out, and the whole market will fluctuate very much, which is also the most unfavorable for retail investors.
abstract
If T+0 is really implemented, it may be a way out for retail investors or strangers, because the market is highly active and speculative. It is an opportunity for retail investors with strong band ability and a risk for retail investors with weak band operation ability.
In short, the implementation of T+0 is a combination of advantages and disadvantages, and retail investors have different views from different angles. Whether it is a way out or a stranger depends on everyone.
If T+0 is implemented, where is the outlet for retail investors?
First of all, I think the idea of stock trading based on technology in the past should be based on fundamentals. Like duckweed, what really affects the fluctuation range of duckweed is where it grows and how long its stem is, not the function of water flow. The role of water flow is influential, but what is really positively related is the internal logic. In fact, technology is like running water, just as listed companies want to withdraw from the market, technology can also look good. However, it is wrong for the last technician to explode or even withdraw from the market. You can prevaricate. The fundamentals of listed companies are analyzed, and most of these risks can be avoided with high probability.
Secondly, only industry leaders and listed companies with industry leaders have medium-and long-term competitiveness. This is also easy to understand, all walks of life are leading listed companies, and the opportunities are even greater. When the leading companies in an industry are losing money, the industry has entered the early stage of the boom cycle. By judging the leading companies, it is also easier for us to judge whether the whole industry track is difficult to make money or not. In a relatively good track, I think it is a relatively simple method to choose leading stocks with excellent performance. Of course, when you really buy it, you must have a good company and a good price. Otherwise, if you buy a good stock at a high price, the annualized rate of return may be mediocre. Catch up in awe.
Finally, listed companies with no margin of safety can't be bought cheaply. In the final analysis, the company has no excellent main business, excellent management team, honest financial report and good products. Then this kind of listed company is just a code name for me. Even if the valuation is cheap. I'm not going to attend. And over time, most of these companies (st, *ST, and other underperforming stocks) will be marginalized. The trading volume is infinitely reduced, and the stock price is infinitely close to 1 yuan. Finally became a fairy share. Of course, ordinary retail investors do not have the ability to choose stocks, and they can participate in the market through industry funds and index funds. For example, food, medicine, finance and other industry index funds, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index funds, SSE 50 index funds and so on. It is highly probable that the capital market will become bigger and stronger.
In short, the ecology will undergo great changes, and adaptation is the last word. As far as I'm concerned, I always change with constancy. That is to clarify the internal investment logic and future growth space of listed companies. Choosing this investment strategy is universal in any capital market in the world and can adapt to changes in any market. To put it bluntly, even if this company withdraws from the market in the future, I am willing to be its shareholder. And often this mentality to buy shares, the probability of delisting is almost zero. Therefore, performance-oriented and fundamental-oriented listed companies are invincible investment strategies. Take Warren Buffett, the American stock market investment guru, as an example. He can make money in many markets around the world, which proves the reliability of this strategy.
Happy investment, look at the money ball.
Answer:
T+0 is not a scourge. Other countries' stock markets are all T+0, and China is an exception.
The A-share market was also T+0 at the beginning. This system will increase the speculation of trading, and increase intraday shocks and fluctuations.
However, once the rules are determined, it is the same for everyone.
It is difficult for retail investors to make money whether they are T+0 or not.
Because the stock market is a zero-sum game. Everyone makes money, which is only possible in a big bull market, because OTC funds keep entering the stock market.
In the market of stock capital game. Every day, brokerage commission and stamp duty need to flow out of the stock market, which will only continue to reduce stock funds. And where did you get the money? Only from other people's losses. Similarly, if you lose money, others can make money.
The stock market is a cruel battlefield. Although 1 2 is not absolute, it also shows that few people make money in the stock market.
Therefore, the impact of T+0 on retail investors is that the trading mode has changed. Pessimistically speaking, the fate of most retail investors' losses remains unchanged.
The advice is terrible, but the truth is.
T+0 is unfamiliar to non-generation investors, but not to futures investors. Both stock index futures and commodity futures implement T+0 trading mechanism.
In fact, no matter what kind of trading mechanism, it will always be the 28 th law, which is true in T+ 1 A shares and T+0 futures market.
To put it bluntly, to become a few investors who can make money, we should make good use of the trading mechanism. On the contrary, even sharp tools and artifacts are equally difficult to achieve good results.
Therefore, once the stock market implements T+0, fundamentally speaking, it is still necessary to explore high-quality varieties under the premise of implementing trading rules, not for the convenience of frequent operations. In Hong Kong stocks or other T+0 stock markets, it is also the mainstream of value investment.