Main recommendations
At the end of September, the scale of foreign reserves decreased by 22.7 billion US dollars, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar remained stable.
In September, the PMI of the construction industry rebounded against the trend, and the improvement of infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter may be better than expected.
Market review
Market comment: National Day holiday news is intertwined, and the operation is not radical. It is appropriate to control the short-term band operation of the warehouse.
Macro perspective: the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions 1 percentage point.
Food and beverage industry: the growth rate of food and beverage consumption index has rebounded, and it is recommended to lay out industry leaders.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 265. 15, down 0.99%; Copper 50050, down 0.32%; Rebar 3933, down 2.86%; Rubber 12320, down 0.28%; The PVC index was 67 15, rising by1.05%; Zheng Chun 32 12, down 0.77%; Shanghai Aluminum 14350, down1.17%; Shanghai Nickel 104380, down 0.46%; Iron ore was 496.0, down 0.90%; Coke 2260.0, down 0.55%; Coking coal 1267.5, down 0.04%; Crude oil was 563.6, up1.75%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5826, flat; Corn 1892, down 0.26%; Palm oil 4724, down 0.30%; Cotton 15890, down 0.53%; Zheng Mai 2563, up 0.20%; White sugar 4983, down 0.08%; Apple 1 1854, up1.81%;
Exchange rate: EUR/USD 1. 16, down 0.15%; USD/RMB 6.89, down 0.04%; USD/HK$ 7.82, up 0. 1 1%.
Main recommendations
At the end of June and September, the scale of foreign reserves decreased by 22.7 billion US dollars, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar remained stable.
Event: 10 On June 7th, the latest data on the scale of foreign exchange reserves released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that by the end of September 20 18, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves was $3,087 billion, a decrease of about $22.7 billion from the end of August, the lowest since last August.
Comments: According to the data of the central bank, China's official foreign exchange reserves from 2065438 to September 2008 were US$ 3,087.025 billion, a decrease of US$ 2,269/kloc-0.1 billion compared with the previous month, with negative growth for two consecutive months. We believe that there is still depreciation pressure on the RMB against the US dollar in September, and cross-border capital flows are generally in the outflow direction. It is expected that the central bank will still have more room to use cross-border fund management tools in the future. The RMB exchange rate is still under depreciation pressure with the upward trend of the US dollar index, but the depreciation space is limited. One of the ultimate goals of the central bank's monetary policy is to maintain the balance of payments, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is an intermediary tool to achieve this goal. Once the reserves continue to decline rapidly, the central bank may intervene in the exchange rate market to maintain the balance of payments, and the RMB will return to the appreciation channel. Since the beginning of this year, facing the complicated external environment, China has adhered to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability and further promoted reform and opening up. The economy has maintained a generally stable, stable and positive trend, the economic structure has been continuously optimized, the flexibility of two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has been continuously enhanced, the balance of payments has been basically balanced, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves has remained generally stable. Although the external environment is still facing great uncertainty, China's economy has strong adaptability and ability to resist external risks, and good fundamentals will continue to provide a solid foundation for the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market. Under the comprehensive effect of domestic and foreign factors, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves is expected to remain stable in fluctuations.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
In February and September, the PMI of the construction industry rebounded against the trend, and the improvement of infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter may be better than expected.
Event: On September 30th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China manufacturing industry in September. The data shows that the PMI of the construction industry in September was 63.4%, which rose by 4.4 pct against the trend, hitting a new high in the year. At the same time, the index of new construction orders increased by 6. 1 pct to 55.7%, returning to above the critical point.
Comments: In September, the construction industry entered the peak season of production, and the business activity index was 63.4%, up 4.4 percentage points from last month and 2.3 percentage points from the same period of last year, rising to the high boom zone, and the production activities of the construction industry accelerated. From the market demand, the new order index of the construction industry was 55.7%, up 6. 1 percentage point from last month, and the market demand of the construction industry continued to grow steadily. The rebound of PMI in the construction industry in September indicates that the construction industry still maintains rapid growth, while the bottoming out of the new order index is consistent with the policy orientation of accelerating the issuance of local bonds and making up the shortcomings of infrastructure, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the later period is expected to pick up. If Q4 economy is still facing great downward pressure, infrastructure is still the most effective hedge for steady growth, and the improvement of Q4 infrastructure investment may be better than expected. Investors are advised to pay attention to low-valued infrastructure/design companies whose performance growth rate in the third quarterly report is expected to exceed expectations.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Market review
1, market comments: National Day holiday news is intertwined, and the operation is not radical. It is appropriate to control the short-term band operation of the warehouse.
During the National Day holiday, the news was mixed. The domestic central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions 1 percentage point, and the external stock market fluctuated greatly. The overall news is warm and cold, which will inevitably affect the overall short-term market. It is expected that the market will be dominated by volatile market this week. In operation, it is suggested to adopt the strategy of high throwing and low sucking, strengthen the frequency of band operation, and pay attention to the wrong varieties with clear performance growth and reasonable valuation on bargain hunting. It is suggested to pay attention to big finance, big consumption and infrastructure. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
2. Macro view: The central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions 1 percentage point.
In order to further support the development of the real economy, optimize the liquidity structure of commercial banks and financial markets, reduce financing costs, and guide financial institutions to continue to increase their support for small and micro enterprises, private enterprises and innovative enterprises, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the scale of large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, city commercial banks, non-county rural commercial banks and foreign capital from 201815.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
3. Food and beverage industry: the growth rate of food and beverage consumption index has rebounded, and it is recommended to lay out industry leaders.
From September 10 to September 14, the food and beverage index dropped by 0.4%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 0.7pct, with dairy products (2.7%), wine (10.9%) and beer (10.3%) in different industries. From June 5438 to August 2008, the growth rate of total social consumption rose to 9.0%, and the warming trend was obvious. Except for automobile consumption (August -3.2%), the growth rate of other consumer sub-sectors has increased. From the perspective of sub-industries, in August, grain, oil and food increased by 10. 1%, and tobacco and alcohol increased by 7.0%, showing an obvious warming trend; The growth rate of catering (9.7%) and catering above designated size (7.5%) also picked up slightly. The rebound in growth in August boosted market confidence. At the same time, we observed that the three major consumption indexes (confidence, satisfaction and expectation) all rose in July, reflecting that the market consumption environment has not been greatly affected. According to the data arrangement in July and August, the influence of monthly data fluctuation can be ruled out: the growth rate of total social consumption in July and August is 9.0%, which is the same as 2Q 18; From July to August, catering and limited catering increased by 9.5% and 6.8% respectively, with the growth rate slightly higher than 2Q 18. Overall, the consumption data is basically stable, and it is less affected by the economy. Liquor has entered the Mid-Autumn National Day stocking stage, and its consumption has increased. Portfolio: Preference for stable performance growth and low valuation.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)