In fact, since the financial crisis in 2008, the prices of domestic soybeans and other agricultural products have remained relatively stable. Prices of more than two yuan per catty have been accepted by farmers for more than 10 years. In the context of this year’s trade friction, there may be Many people have high expectations for domestic soybeans. However, contrary to expectations, domestic soybean futures prices have hit new lows repeatedly. The price of soybeans on the Dalian Commodity Futures Exchange hit a new low of 3,112 yuan/ton last weekend. You must know that the last time this price occurred was during the global financial crisis in 2008, which lasted only a week. Whether in terms of supply and demand or investment value, the current price may not be a true reflection of value. At the same time, the spot price of domestic soybeans has also plummeted. Currently, soybeans in the main producing areas can only sell for 1.8 yuan/jin.

Why is the current domestic soybean price diverging? One of the reasons is that domestically produced soybeans are different from imported soybeans. Although there is a dispute between the United States and Brazilian soybeans caused by trade frictions this year, these have little to do with domestically produced soybeans or Northeastern soybeans. In 2017, China imported nearly 95 million tons of soybeans, and domestically produced soybeans were only about 15 million tons. The vast majority of imported genetically modified soybeans were basically used for crushing, while domestic non-genetically modified soybeans were mostly used for food processing. This may also be the early stage. Prices reflect the sudden rise in soybean meal and the fall in soybean prices. Of course, the increase in crushing levels has led to a fall in soybean oil prices, which is another matter. If you can understand the above introduction, you may still not understand the current decline in domestic soybean prices.

Since October this year, domestic soybean prices have entered a slow decline. The spot price is affected by region and time. Futures data may better reflect the current decline in soybean prices: Dalian Commodity Futures On the exchange, the Douyi 1901 contract futures price has dropped from the highest of 3,879 yuan/ton in October this year to the lowest of 3,112 yuan/ton last week, a drop of more than 23%. Similar to the trend of futures prices, the domestic spot purchase price has dropped from the price of 2 yuan per catty when the scale was opened to the lowest price of 17 cents. After futures prices hit a 10-year low, we should consider that the reason for the sluggishness of domestic soybeans may not be just a simple relationship between supply and demand.

Since the Federal Reserve opened the window to raise interest rates, the rising US dollar has been suppressing the currencies of emerging market economies and global capital markets around the world. In the commodity market, in just a few months, New York oil prices have fallen from US$76/barrel to US$46/barrel. Uncertainties about future global economic growth are increasing. In fact, as early as the IMF annual meeting in October, the global economic growth rate in 2019 has been lowered in a warning manner. Recently, the negative impact on the European economy has continued to pile up. Brexit is still in chaos and confusion. The economic data of Germany and France in major countries in the Eurozone are not as good as expected. Various reasons have become factors that push up the US dollar. As the U.S. dollar strengthens, global commodity prices decline, and domestic soybean prices struggle to outperform.

Since the trade friction, U.S. soybeans have lost their price competitiveness in the Chinese soybean market. Major soybean-producing countries such as Brazil and Argentina have been continuously shipping soybeans to China. While enjoying the benefits of price and sales, they have increased their soybean prices. Planting area; The market is like a Brownian movement. The expectation of China's soybean supply gap has attracted the attention of many countries around the world. Not only is Nigeria lending a helping hand, but even India is trying to export soybean meal and other soy products to China. Russia, which is separated from us by a narrow strip of water and has vast land, has become the direction of competition for soybean traders. For a time, in the absence of major natural disasters, the global soybean oversupply pattern in 2019 may be difficult to change. Something else to note here is the amount of unmarketable U.S. soybeans behind this year’s record production.

The Federal Reserve’s fourth interest rate hike this year has also come to an end; during the same period, domestic neutral and appropriately loose monetary policies have also been introduced. The goals in the policy divergence are the same. A balance has been established, and domestic soybean prices may be difficult to hit new lows in the future! After continuous low consolidation, soybean futures prices on the Dalian Commodity Futures Exchange showed signs of rebounding. As of December 20, the futures price closed at 3,180 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.70%.