It is reported that with the rapid increase of daily consumption of coastal power plants, some traders are bullish and choose to suspend shipment, and some traders have started to raise their quotations by 5- 10 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction is average. At present, the mainstream price of 5500 Cameng coal is 620-625 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of Shanxi coal is 625-635 yuan/ton.
However, according to the data of Yulin Coal Trading Center, in the past two days, due to the cold sales, the coal price in Yulin continued to decline, and the two major mines in Yuyang District lowered their prices again. Among them, Hanglaiwan Coal Mine lowered the price of clean coal 1 5 yuan/ton and the price of excellent blended coal 10 yuan/ton on June 5438+February. Jinjitan Coal Mine will reduce the price of blended coal by 20 yuan/ton, lump coal 10 yuan/ton.
Cui Yuxi also said that the current market supply is still relatively sufficient. In rainy and snowy weather, downstream procurement is not active, and the origin is still bearish.
65438+February 1, domestic thermal coal futures prices rebounded. As of the close of early trading, the main contract of thermal coal 1905 was 568.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 0. 18%.
On the same day, the coal sector in the A-share market also rose slightly. Wind data shows that as of the close of early trading, CITIC's first-class coal index rose by 0.08%, of which st Wei Yun rose by 2.8 1% and kailuan shares rose by 1.2 1%.
Thermal coal is not prosperous in peak season.
Compared with the high price of thermal coal and the tight supply of power plants last winter, the coal market this winter is not as prosperous as the peak season.
In the same period last year, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port has reached more than 700 yuan/ton, while the current port coal price is only about 625 yuan/ton. The futures price trend also shows that from May 20 17 to February 20 18, the domestic thermal coal futures price has been rising all the way, and the main contract is as high as 679.8 yuan/ton. Since April this year, the futures price has maintained a small consolidation trend, and the peak season has not been boosted by the price.
The lack of thermal coal in the peak season this winter is directly related to the continuous high inventory of power plants.
"Although the daily consumption reached more than 700,000 tons, the inventory of the six major coastal power plants reached 1 7.64 million tons in June 5438+February, about 50% higher than the same period last year." Cui Yu' e said that the available days of power plant inventory at present are 23.8 days, compared with less than 17 days in the same period last year, which is quite different.
It is reported that at the beginning of this year, there was an extreme shortage of coal for power plants, and domestic coal production once increased. From February to May, the coal price dropped sharply, and the port coal price once fell to about 560 yuan/ton. Since then, the National Development and Reform Commission has required power plants to actively replenish their inventories, and the number of days available for inventory should be maintained at more than 20 days. Therefore, since August this year, the inventory of the six major power plants has been maintained at a high level of150,000 tons, and even once reached a record high of180,000 tons. Last year, the inventory of the six major coastal power plants remained below120,000 tons, and the usable days were below 20 days. The active replenishment of power plants and the low daily consumption in the peak season this winter have made the market supply and demand change again, and the coal shortage situation has not reappeared. .
Taiyuan Coal Trading Center also stated that as of 65438+February 1, the coal stocks of the six major coastal power plants were 17753700 tons, the daily coal consumption was 70 1400 tons, and the available days were 25.3 days. The analysis shows that the daily consumption of power plants is close to the same level of last year, and it is more likely that the daily consumption of power plants will continue to rise with the cold weather in the later period, and the demand for replenishment is expected to increase. As the total inventory is still at a high level, the phenomenon of large-scale procurement is unlikely to occur.
The downward trend is likely to continue.
Can the daily consumption of coastal power plants rise this time to drive the domestic coal market to warm up?
Cui Yuee believes that unless there is a significant increase in snowfall in the near future, or there is extremely cold weather and coal resources are tight, it is difficult for coal prices to rise sharply this winter. At present, there is news in the market that the weather in the south is showing signs of recovery, so the increase in coal prices is even more unsupported. In addition, this year's environmental protection supervision has been significantly strengthened, which has led to an increase in the shutdown of downstream industrial enterprises and a negative impact on industrial electricity consumption. In the short term, the coal price may rise in stages at 65438+ in late February or165438+ in early October. However, if coal prices fail to rise during this period, it will be more difficult for coal prices to rise again as industrial enterprises stop production near the Spring Festival.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of coal and lignite in China increased by 9.3% to 2718110 million tons, slightly exceeding the total volume of last year. Under the guidance of the flat control policy of imported coal, the relevant state departments have informed the major ports in the country through oral and conference forms that the customs clearance of imported coal will basically not be arranged before the end of this year. Only a few power plants that urgently need to ensure winter power supply can apply for exemption from NDRC through the parent group company. In this case, the downstream enterprises' purchasing demand for imported coal will shift to the domestic coal market, which will support the coastal coal market in a short time.
At the same time, the impact of environmental protection and limited production will continue, or it will lead to the decline of industrial coal consumption again.
It is reported that Hebei provincial government's steel industry policy requires that Hebei Shengbao Steel's production capacity of 4.5 million tons be completely withdrawn and officially stopped production on February 7, 65438. Due to the severe or serious pollution weather process in Henan Province. As of June 30th, 1 1, 1 and 15 were orange and yellow respectively. According to the early warning response plan for heavy polluted weather, 6 1, 3 1 enterprises will stop production, and 1, 240 enterprises will stop production.
Taiyuan Coal Trading Center also said that near the end of the year, some large mines in the main producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia have completed the annual production tasks, and the follow-up will focus on ensuring safety, and the coal output has declined from the previous month. After 5438+February in mid-June, the low temperature will continue, and the demand for electricity for residents will continue to increase. Stimulated by high daily consumption and restrictions on imported coal, the domestic coal market will benefit in a short time, and the price of thermal coal will rise slightly. In the long run, considering the protection of Xie coal to end users and the supplement of imported coal in June 20 19, the market demand for coal purchase may be limited, and the coal price still does not have the basis for continuous increase.