(1) world oil reserves and distribution
According to the latest data of BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook in 20 13, the world's remaining proven oil reserves at the end of 20 16689× 108 bbl can be exploited for 52.9 years according to the world oil output in 20 12.
From the table 1- 1, it can be seen that the distribution of world oil resources is extremely uneven, mainly concentrated in the Middle East, North America and Central and South America, and the total reserves of these areas account for 81.3% of the world reserves; The Asia-Pacific region and Africa are most short of oil, accounting for 2.5% and 7.8% respectively. The countries with the top 10 in the world oil reserves are Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Russia, Libya and Nigeria, accounting for 84.85% of the world oil reserves. The top five oil storage countries are in the Middle East, accounting for 53.5% of the world's reserves, of which Venezuela ranks first in the world, accounting for 17.8%.
Table 1- 1 world proven oil reserves and regional distribution unit: 108bbl
(2) Petroleum production
In the past 10 years, the world oil production has been increasing on the whole, from 7494.8× 104 bbl/ day in 2002 to 86 15.2× 104 bbl/ day in 2006, with an average annual increase of/kloc-0.
In terms of regional distribution, the world's major oil-producing areas are concentrated in the Middle East, Europe, Eurasia and North America, and the total daily output of 20 103.8× 104 bbl accounts for 70.85% of the world's daily output. The output of North America and Africa increased rapidly, accounting for 8.9% and 7.7% respectively. The output of 20 12 in the Middle East was 2,827×104 bbl, a slight increase of 0.9% over the previous year. The annual output of 20 12 in the Asia-Pacific region is 83 1.3× 104bbl, which is slightly higher than the previous year, with an increase of 0.7%. The regions with negative growth in 20 12 years are Central and South America, Europe and Eurasia, and the output decreased by 1.2% and 1.4% respectively.
In terms of countries, before 2065,438+02, the 65,438+00 oil-producing countries were Saudi Arabia, Russian Federation, United States, China, Canada, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Mexico, with a total daily output of 55,5438+08.7× 65,438+004 bbl, accounting for the world's daily output. The daily output of Saudi Arabia is1153x104bbl, accounting for13.3% of the world's daily output; The daily output of Russia is1064.3x104bbl, accounting for12.8%; The daily output of the United States is 890.5× 104bbl, accounting for 9.6%.
(3) Oil consumption
From 2002 to 2007, the world oil consumption showed an obvious upward trend. In 2008 and 2009, affected by the financial crisis, the world oil consumption decreased, and then showed an upward trend. In 20 12, the world oil consumption was 8977.4× 104bbl, up by 0.9% year-on-year; The daily consumption exceeds 2000× 104bbl in Asia-Pacific and North America, reaching 2978. 1× 104bbl and 2304× 104bbl respectively. Compared with 20 1 1, the daily fuel consumption in North America decreased by 1.8%.
From the perspective of countries, the top 65,438+00 oil consuming countries in the world in 2065,438+02 were the United States, China, Japan, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Korea, Canada and Germany, with a total daily consumption of 5328.4× 65,438+004 bbl, accounting for 59.5% of the total global daily consumption. Among them, American daily consumption 1855.5× 104bbl, accounting for 19.8%, down 2.3% year-on-year; China's daily consumption exceeded 1000× 104bbl, reaching1022.1×104bbl, accounting for 1 1.7%, up 5. 7% year-on-year. Japan's daily consumption was 47 1.4× 104bbl, accounting for 5.3%, up 6.3% year-on-year.
Second, the impact of oil on the world economy and international social security.
The influence of oil on the world economy and international social security mainly comes from three natural attributes of oil, an important energy source. One is high dependence. Oil is an indispensable and irreplaceable important energy source and chemical raw material for the national economy, and the national economy has a strong dependence on oil. Oil accounts for 37% of the total energy demand in the United States and 73% of the total energy demand in the transportation sector. Oil and natural gas account for 69% of China's transportation consumption. The second is scarcity. Oil is a kind of non-renewable energy. Due to the limitation of technological development, the proven oil reserves are limited. With the economic growth and the increase of oil consumption, the total petroleum geological reserves in the world are decreasing, and the contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent. The third is the imbalance of distribution. The imbalance in the distribution of oil resources makes the contradiction between oil supply and demand more acute. At present, there are more than 150 oil-producing countries and regions in the world, and more than 40,000 oil and gas fields have been discovered, but the world's oil resources are mainly distributed in the Middle East, North America, Central and South America, Western Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia and China. Among them, the Middle East and North Africa have the largest oil reserves, accounting for 68% of the proven reserves and 30% of the reserves to be proved. The largest oil field in the world is Gawol oil field in Saudi Arabia, with recoverable oil reserves of 104× 108t. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East are the largest oil producing and exporting regions in the world, and most of these regions have complex political, ethnic and religious contradictions.
These important attributes of oil make it an important strategic material to ensure national economic and political security. 1973, 10 year1October 6, the fourth middle east war broke out. A few days after the war broke out, Israel gained the advantage and attacked Egypt and Syria from the ground, air and sea. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) immediately responded by substantially raising oil prices and correcting artificially low oil prices for a long time. 1 974 65438+1October1raised the oil price from $3 per barrel to 1 1.65, marking the end of the "cheap oil era" (known as the "first oil crisis" in the west). Middle East oil is the most sensitive nerve of the world economy. The rise in oil prices made the great development of the world capitalist economy begin to fade, and then experienced the most serious world economic crisis after World War II from 1974 to 1975, resulting in an average negative GDP growth of 1.23% in the United States, Japan and Britain. At the beginning of 1979, due to the political changes in Iran, oil exports stopped. 1980, the Iran-Iraq war broke out, resulting in a sudden decrease in oil supply. The oil price soared from 12.86 USD per barrel at the end of 1978 to 40 ~ 4/kloc-0 USD per barrel in the spot market (known as the "second oil crisis" in the west). The economic crisis from 1980 to 1982 led to a negative GDP growth of 0.2% in the United States and 2.4% in the United Kingdom. Two "oil crises" caused the US economy to lose $4 trillion.
After 1980, the world economy was depressed, and oil-importing countries launched fuel-saving campaigns to improve energy utilization, develop alternative energy sources and reduce oil consumption; On the other hand, the oil industry outside the Middle East is booming, resulting in oversupply of oil and weak oil prices, which once fell below $0/0 per barrel. With the efforts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the oil price has gradually increased from 1987 to the level of 16 ~ 18 USD per barrel.
1On August 2, 990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and after the Gulf crisis broke out, oil prices fluctuated greatly. In August 1990, the price of crude oil in the Middle East was $65,438+08.10; 10 year 10 9, the oil price per barrel rose to $35.40; 65438+1October 1 1, the international oil price soared to a historical high of 4 1.07 USD/barrel; 199117 When the Gulf War broke out, the price of oil per barrel fell to $65,438 +04.90, which was lower than the level before the Gulf crisis. The multinational forces led by the United States bombed Iraq and its military targets in Kuwait until Iraq declared its unconditional surrender, thus ending the Gulf War. This is the biggest local war since World War II, and its main purpose is to compete for oil control in the Gulf region. As former US President Nixon said: "The United States launched the Gulf War not for democracy, nor for freedom, but for oil."
By 1994, the situation of oversupply in the world oil market has not been reversed, and the oil price is still hovering around 16 ~ 18 USD per barrel. In 2002, the international oil price was only $20 per barrel.
According to the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global daily demand for crude oil in 2004, 2005 and 2006 was 8220× 104bbl, 8330× 104bbl and 8470× 104bbl respectively. The daily demand in 2006 increased by 140× 104bbl compared with 2005. Even if all oil suppliers are fully engaged in production, there is still a gap of about 1500× 104bbl in global oil supply. Due to the rapid growth of demand for crude oil, the bursting of the bubble of "new economy" and traditional capital market in the United States, the bursting of the bubble of real estate market, the operation of international capital mainly concentrated in the energy field, and the political instability of major oil-producing countries (such as the Iranian nuclear issue), the international oil price reached as high as 69.8 1 USD per barrel on August 30, 2005, and reached 67.72 USD on September 2. On July 14, 2006, the international crude oil price exceeded $75 per barrel (reaching $76.8), a record high. Compared with developed countries, this oil price increase will increase production costs, increase inflationary pressure and slow down the economic growth of developing countries that rely more on imported oil.
In 2007, European countries' crude oil inventories generally declined, and the tight international oil supply situation did not ease. The price of crude oil broke through the historical high of 90 USD, reaching 9 1.86 USD/barrel. In the second half of 2008, affected by the outbreak and gradual spread of the financial crisis, the global economy fell sharply and the oil demand shrank severely. After reaching an all-time high (USD 65,438+USD 047.27 per barrel) in mid-July 2008, the international oil price continued to fall rapidly until the beginning of 2009. In 2009, despite the negative growth of global oil demand, with the strict implementation of the production reduction agreement by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the effect gradually appeared and market confidence began to pick up. Coupled with the depreciation of the dollar and the intervention of international speculative capital, the international oil price rose from $34 in early February to more than $80, and remained in the range of $ 70-80.
At the beginning of 20 10, the supply and demand fundamentals of excess inventory and weak demand made the oil price fall below $70 per barrel for a short time; At the end of the year, cold weather and optimistic economic data in Europe and America pushed Brent oil price to the highest level since the financial crisis, reaching $94.75 per barrel. 20 1 1 WTI oil price (west Texas light crude oil price) generally rose first and then fell. Under the influence of a series of negative economic events, such as the interruption of oil supply caused by the turmoil in Libya, the deterioration of the European debt crisis and the subsequent impact of the earthquake in Japan, the international oil price fluctuated and fell, and the WTI oil price fell from the highest point of the year 1 13.7 USD to 75.3 USD.
In 20 12, the international oil price generally showed a trend of high before and then low, with great fluctuations. Affected by the turmoil in Iran and Syria, international oil prices have shown a sharp upward trend. In March, the reference price of OPEC crude oil exceeded $0/24 per barrel, and the futures prices of London Brent and new york West Texas light crude oil also reached new highs.