There are nine main factors that affect the price of rubber: international supply and demand, domestic supply and demand, macroeconomic environment, development of major rubber industries, production and application of synthetic rubber, natural factors, exchange rate changes, political factors and international market transactions. The main exporters of international supply and demand of natural rubber are Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. In 2002, the three countries established the Regional Sales Alliance of Natural Rubber (ITRCo), and implemented unified measures to limit production and protect prices (the reserve price is 80 cents/kg). The countries and regions with the largest consumption of natural rubber in the world are the United States, China, Western Europe and Japan. Among them, China's own natural rubber production can meet about one-third of domestic consumption, and the rest needs to be imported, while the United States, Western Europe and Japan rely entirely on imports. Obviously, the relationship between supply and demand of natural rubber among the above three major exporting countries and three semi-major importing countries and regions plays the most basic and key role in the price of natural rubber. Domestic supply and demand of domestic natural rubber have been in short supply. Therefore, before the import of natural rubber is completely liberalized, the domestic supply of natural rubber has a certain impact on the price of natural rubber in China. Macroeconomic environment is an important industrial raw material, and the price fluctuation of natural rubber is closely related to the international and domestic economic environment. When the economic environment is improving, the market needs to develop and the demand is sufficient, at this time, the demand for natural rubber will increase, thus pushing its price up; On the contrary, when the economic environment deteriorates, the market is pessimistic and the demand is insufficient, the demand for natural rubber will decrease at this time, leading to its decline. The development of major rubber industries The largest consumption of natural rubber is the automobile industry (accounting for about 65% of the total consumption of natural rubber), and the development of the automobile industry has promoted the progress of the tire manufacturing industry. Therefore, the development of automobile industry and related tire industry will affect the price of natural rubber. Production and application of synthetic rubber With the continuous progress of technology, the selection of raw materials for rubber products has also changed, and many products have used synthetic rubber instead of natural rubber. With the continuous development of synthetic rubber industry, its price is more and more competitive. When the supply of natural rubber is tight or the price rises, many manufacturers will choose to use synthetic rubber, and their complementarity will become stronger and stronger. At the same time, because synthetic rubber belongs to petrochemical products, its price is affected by its upstream product-oil. Therefore, the fluctuation of oil price will also affect the price of natural rubber by affecting the price of synthetic rubber. Natural factors The growth of natural rubber trees needs certain geographical and climatic conditions. Rubber trees that are generally suitable for tapping are 5-7 years old. Therefore, the number of natural rubber trees that can be used for rubber tapping cannot be changed in a short time. The main factors affecting the output of natural rubber are: 1 and seasonal factors. Entering the cutting season, rubber prices fell; Entering the tapping season, the price of rubber rises. 2. Climate factors. Typhoon or tropical storm, continuous rainy days, drought and frost will reduce the output of natural rubber and increase the price of rubber. 3. Pests and diseases. Such as powdery mildew, red root disease and anthracnose. , will affect the growth of natural rubber trees, and even lead to death, which has a great impact on the output and price of natural rubber. In recent years, due to global economic instability and frequent exchange rate changes, the price of natural rubber, especially the import and export business, has had a certain impact. Therefore, when paying attention to the natural rubber market in the international market, we must pay attention to the exchange rate changes of various countries, especially the exchange rate changes of the three major rubber producing countries and the Japanese yen against the US dollar. Political factors Political factors include not only the policy influence of governments on the import and export of natural rubber, but also international emergencies and major events that have occurred and will occur, such as catastrophic events and possible war factors. Political factors often lead to sharp fluctuations in the price of natural rubber in a short period of time when relevant news comes out, and affect its price trend for a long time. The influence of international market transactions Natural rubber has become a mature variety in the international futures market and has a certain market share in the futures exchanges of Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, the trading prices of the main places for natural rubber futures trading, such as TOCOM and OME in Japan, SHFE in China, SICOM in Singapore and KLCE in Malaysia, also have different degrees of interaction.