Nowadays, the pig price has skyrocketed, and the pig price in many places has entered the "10 era", and farmers are beaming.
For the second brother, it can be described as "the return of the king." The situation is excellent, and the good days of counting money are back.
After yesterday's surge in pig prices, pig prices in many places are rising again today, and this is bigger than yesterday.
At present, the monitored pig price market has entered "nine times" in an all-round way, and the pig prices in many places have also "broken 10". For farmers, they have high expectations for this wave of pig price increase. From breaking 8 to breaking 9, and then breaking 10, they almost got what they wanted easily, which relieved the farmers who got rid of the cost line and established strong confidence.
In addition to the recent increase in pig prices, there is also good news for farmers, that is, the main cost of raising pigs-feed prices are gradually decreasing.
The data shows that on June 28th, the main contract of corn futures closed at 28 15 yuan/ton, which was 8.2 1% lower than the high point of the year. The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 3897 yuan/ton, down 15.34% from the high point of the year. With the recovery of soybean production in major soybean producing countries, the bearish expectation of soybean prices will gradually intensify, and soybean meal will turn down in the medium and long term.
Industry monitoring data show that the ratio of pig to grain has risen to 6.47: 1, returning to the normal green area.
However, in the context of the continuous skyrocketing pig prices, we should be more alert to the "ups and downs of pig prices" to avoid being carried away by price increases. After all, under the current background, pig prices do not have a real "skyrocketing momentum", which is mostly caused by the mood of farmers. When the "momentum" fades, it is the time when the pig price collapses. After all, the higher you climb, the heavier you fall.
An obvious negative factor is the rising price of live pigs and the falling price of piglets.
In April, the price of pigs began to rise rapidly, followed by the price of piglets. In June, the price of pigs continued to "play music", but the price of piglets began to fall. At present, 7 kg piglets have fallen below the 500 yuan mark in many places, and the price trends of piglets and commercial pigs run counter to each other, which means that the market has different expectations for the future market.
At the same time, considering that the current slaughter time of piglets is 165438+ 10 in the middle and late October, the enthusiasm of the market to fill the column has weakened, indicating that everyone is bearish on the price in the peak consumption season at the end of the year.
At present, the unilateral bullish sentiment at the breeding end continues to heat up, and the second fattening backlog pigs are expected to be sold at high prices; There is a phenomenon of active weight gain in the market, which also artificially expands the supply gap of standard pigs, indirectly increases the later production capacity, and centralized selling leads to a decline in pig prices, laying hidden dangers; High temperature in the north and continuous rain in the south are not conducive to the growth of terminal consumption. The increase in pig prices still needs the support of the demand side, and the superposition of large, middle and primary schools has been on holiday one after another, reducing the amount of centralized procurement; In addition, domestic gasoline and diesel prices ushered in the "second decline" during the year, which was beneficial to the transportation of pigs and pigs to some extent; Finally, the frozen goods inventory of slaughter enterprises, and the frozen goods storage in many places has not yet begun. With the frozen goods put into the market, the potential risk of pig price still exists.
In short, in the context of various negative factors, due to the persistent bullish sentiment in the market in the short term, the slaughter of pigs will still be relatively tight at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, and the price of pigs may still rise further.
However, this irrational sharp rise in the market will also aggravate the risk of falling pig prices. After all, the stock of domestic fertile sows has not been greatly reduced. Under the pressure of the market and secondary fattening, the production capacity will eventually be released, and the pig price will naturally return to the market fundamentals.
Therefore, with the help of this wave of strong "high tide", the medium-term pig price may quickly enter the "downward channel", and everyone should be alert to the reversal risk after the short-term surge in pig prices.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 25% and fell by 1, and the rising areas accounted for 96% of all the monitored areas. The lowest average price of live pigs monitored nationwide is 9.93 yuan/kg, and the highest is 10. 14.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, it is still difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase, and the rainstorm in many places in the north is still outstanding, so it is difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase. The arrival volume of slaughter enterprises in the north is relatively normal, while that of some enterprises in the southwest is very small.
At present, the market price in the northern region shows preference. Results The price difference between northeast and southwest was in 0.5 yuan/kg, and the price difference was obvious.
Market sentiment is divided and bullish sentiment has slowed down.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will show a "large-scale rise" trend tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome everyone to exchange views on the hog market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and tomorrow will be more exciting. I believe that with your help, the price of pigs will rise again.
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