The advantages of securities companies in stock index futures are becoming more and more obvious. Guotai Junan Futures ranked first in daily turnover, with the average daily turnover accounting for about 30% of the total turnover. At the same time, there are also many brokers in the top 20 futures companies. According to industry insiders, in addition to customer resources, brokerage futures companies may also have the advantage of low commission rate.
As of this Thursday, the five-day cumulative turnover of the main contract IF 1005 reached 535.985 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of several hundred billion yuan. If calculated according to the industry average transaction commission rate, the futures commission rate is also the principle of bilateral collection, and the five-day accumulative commission is 654.38+0.07 billion yuan.
Volume amplification speed exceeds positions.
As of this Thursday, stock index futures have been listed and traded for five days. On April 19, the trading amount of stock index futures reached 1000 billion yuan, and the trading volume reached 654.38+10,000 lots, more than doubling the first trading day. From the perspective of positions, from April 16 to April 22, it increased steadily day by day, from 2,702 lots on the first trading day to 5,383 lots on April 22, nearly double the first trading day. In terms of volume, in April, 109733 lots were sold, which was twice as many as 48988 lots in the first trading day, and on April 20th, 14 1862 lots were sold, reaching a five-day high. In the following two trading days, the volume dropped slightly, namely 165438.
"The market of stock index futures on the first day of landing is still different from the previous market expectations. Stock index futures opened slightly higher and then opened lower; The stock market did not open higher than expected, but opened lower and closed lower. " Guo Xiaoyan, manager of the financial department of China International Futures Financial Street (000402, Share Bar), told the reporter, "The biggest turnover on the 20th shows that investors have gradually recognized the market and started to use and be familiar with the short-selling mechanism. In these five days, the market fell more and rose less. After 19 plunged, the trading volume of stock index futures reached a high point on the 20th, and the trading volume of that day exceeded that of Shanghai stock market. Shorting is gradually accepted by the market. Judging from the five-day trading, two days are dominated by bulls, three days are dominated by the sky, and the short-selling mechanism makes money, and the short-selling mechanism gradually attracts investors. "
The amplification speed of trading volume far exceeds the amplification speed of positions, and the ratio of trading volume to positions also increased from 18. 13 on the first day to the peak of 3 1.55 on April 20th, and1decreased slightly on October 20th and 22nd, respectively. Many insiders said that this shows that intraday trading is active.
Sun Feng, a researcher at galaxy futures Research Center, told the reporter of China Times: "At present, the position of stock index futures is about 5,000 lots, and the trading volume has rapidly expanded to more than 65,438+10,000 lots. The comparison between trading volume and positions shows that trading in one day is very active, and the rapid expansion of trading amount is also closely related to this. "
In this regard, Guo Xiaoyan also said that positions are also expanding, but far less than the volume, which shows that the market is highly speculative. Compared with commodity futures, stock index futures are more speculative as financial futures.
Brokers are futures companies with obvious advantages.
Looking through the ranking of daily clearing members' trading positions published by CICC, the reporter found that Guotai Junan Futures, Great Wall Ye Wei Futures and Guangfa Futures ranked in the top three on several trading days, among which Guotai Junan and Guangfa Futures all belonged to brokerage futures companies.
Among the top 20 settlement members, there are many brokers, such as galaxy futures, Cinda Futures, Xingye Futures, haitong futures and hongyuan futures. Brokerage futures companies occupy most of the seats in the top 20. Guotai Junan Futures is the futures company with the largest trading volume in five trading days, accounting for a large proportion of the total trading volume. Among them, 36 142 lots were sold on the 22nd, accounting for 27. 12% of the total 133247 lots sold that day. During the four trading days from 16 to 2 1, the turnover of Guotai Junan accounted for 34. 1 1%, 36.32%, 33.94% and 27.43% respectively.
In this regard, Liu Jingde, deputy director of Cinda Securities Research Institute, told reporters that brokerage futures do have advantages in stock index futures trading, but most participants should have participated in futures trading. The scale of Cinda Futures is OK. Its headquarters is in Hangzhou, and futures trading in Zhejiang is booming.
Guo Xiaoyan said that brokerage futures companies do have advantages in customer resources. She said that brokers without futures companies are also actively seeking cooperation.
In addition to the advantages of customer resources, brokerage futures companies may also have preferential commission fees. A person from a non-brokerage futures company who did not want to be named said that the commission rate of brokerage futures companies is relatively low, and the commission rate of stock index futures in the industry is basically between 1/10000 and 1.5/10000, while the commission rate of brokerage futures companies is slightly lower than this level. Because futures are T+0 transactions, the commission rate is much lower than that of stocks.
Guo Xiaoyan also said that as of 15, there are about 9,000 futures account stock indexes in China, including 2% institutional investors. After that, the number of accounts opened gradually increased, and it is expected to increase at the rate of 1000 every day. Guo also said that the recent account opening situation of her business department is also optimistic.
The connection between the future and the present is emerging.
Sun Feng said: "From the trading week, the interaction between futures and spot began to appear. Most of the time, futures still follow the spot trend, but at some moments, futures do appear before the spot. For example, at 2: 02 pm on the 20th, stock index futures rose first, and then the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose at 2: 05 in the spot market. There were also futures ahead of the spot in early trading on the 22nd. When there is a big price difference between stock index futures and spot, arbitrage transactions are frequent, which leads to an increase in the trading volume of SSE 180ETF and SZSE 100ETF. "
"Overall, since the stock index futures trading for a week, it should be said that the price is more rational and the market is relatively stable." Sun Feng said. Frequent intraday trading and closing positions on the same day also reflect traders' consideration of avoiding risks. At present, both individual investors and general corporate investors are participating in the trading of stock index futures. There is no further news about the opening of accounts by special legal persons such as funds, brokers and trusts.
Liu Jingde analyzed that at present, the scale of stock index futures is not large and there are not many participants, so the trend of the broader market cannot be decided for the time being; The main investment in stock index futures is not large, so it is not feasible to make money on stock index futures by making large-cap stocks. However, stock index futures can affect the market trend. For example, if the stock index futures open higher, the spread with the spot will be formed, and the arbitrage trading will increase. The stock index futures may open higher and then go lower, which will affect the stock market. If stock index futures open lower, it may rise, which will also affect the stock market.
"It is unlikely that stock index futures will be affected by the broader market in the short term, but stock index futures will affect the trend of the broader market," Liu Jingde said. "At present, there is no provision for brokers to invest in stock index futures, so it is estimated that participation is relatively certain. The key is to what extent and scale. It is expected that in the early stage of stock index futures, all brokers will not spend a lot of money to do it. It is always necessary to carry out small-scale experiments first. It is expected that the participation of brokers in stock index futures trading is mainly due to speculative considerations. "
"In the short term, the market will fluctuate at 3000 points first, and then oversold and rebound; In the medium term, if the height of the next rebound shrinks again, it may face a medium-term decline. " Liu Jingde said.